Friday, September 28, 2012

Hispanic voters in NC

I've noted this before, but I keep wondering why very reputable analysts and media drastically overstate the percentage of Hispanic voters in North Carolina. From Latino Decisions:

Today Latinos in North Carolina make up slightly less than three percent, or 182,000 of the electorate.  At first sight this may seem insignificant, but given that the presidential candidates are within three percentage points of each other, Latinos voters will be critical to swaying the election one way or another.  For months President Obama has trailed Romney in the state, but if his campaign can maximize Latino voter mobilization and turnout, then he just might again win North Carolina by the skin of his teeth.

I went to the North Carolina State Board of Elections website, which has statistics updated through 9/22/12, just six days ago.

Total registered voters: 6,454,075
Total Hispanic registered voters: 102,282
Percentage of Hispanic voters: 1.6%

Can this constituency make a difference in the presidential election? Possibly, but the argument above about 3% just doesn't hold water.


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