Wednesday, March 07, 2018

Failed US Meddling in Latin American Elections

Tim Gill has an article in today's Washington Post about U.S. meddling in Latin American elections. He notes U.S. officials participating in some manner in Venezuelan, Bolivian, and Nicaraguan elections, pointing out that supporting the military is not the only, or even main, avenue. There are strategy meetings, funding, etc. for opposition parties.

The interesting thing is that the U.S. failed in all three cases.

The failed efforts in these three countries against different popularly elected candidates show that the United States hasn’t stopped trying to undermine leftist Latin American leaders. But even failed efforts undoubtedly generate conditions more conducive to a pendulum shift to the right. And indeed, we have recently witnessed leftist governments displaced in Argentina, Brazil and Honduras.

Now, at least part of the conditions for the pendulum shift are also corruption and economic decline, but it would be fascinating to think about how to isolate the effect of meddling itself. It would be tough.

I wonder whether, even when looking at the U.S. for comparison, that a broader effect is decreased support for democracy itself. Faced with a flood of negative stories, rumors of manipulation, etc. voters simply see elections themselves as less legitimate.

We could also hypothesize that it prompts the targeted leaders to be more authoritarian. We make fun of Nicolás Maduro for paranoia, but he does have reason to be paranoid. As Tim shows, there is ample public evidence of meddling and we do not know what is also being done covertly.

His concluding point, though, is important whether or not the meddling succeeds. We are outraged at Russian interference, yet casual about interfering elsewhere. Why? Because we're exceptional and always do things for the right reasons. And that's a big part of the problem.

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Tuesday, March 06, 2018

Laura Chinchilla on Sexism

Former Costa Rican President Laura Chinchilla has a great op-ed in the Spanish edition of The New York Times about sexism and female presidents. Even using some data, she shows how women are valued less, their governments are written about less, and their personal characteristics get more attention (she notes how often she was asked if she cried after some dramatic event). She lauds the quota laws that are common in Latin America, which bring more women into politics.

She ends on an optimistic note, talking how some trends toward equality are now irreversible. Perhaps most importantly, people know women can be president, which of course is something we haven't yet tackled in the United States.

I will end on a less optimistic note. I could not find an English version of this article.



In other words, an article about sexism falls to sexism. Since we in the United States have a difficult time accepting the notion of a woman as president, and since we refuse quotas despite having legislators who are overwhelmingly male, we're the ones that need to see it.

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Monday, March 05, 2018

U.S.-Mexican Relations the Trump Way

During the Trump administration, U.S.-Mexico relations have been guided in no small part by the personal relationship between Mexican Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray and Jared Kushner. Now Kushner is in hot political water. In his absence, relations are guided by Twitter sniping. From this morning:

Then the response:



This is not a healthy way for two allies with a long shared border to communicate. In fact, the personal relationship route is a dangerous one as well, but at least it involves mutual respect. Trump's tweet is intended as red meat for his core supporters and perhaps in some twisted way he sees it as giving him leverage in NAFTA negotiations, but fostering and nurturing animosity will backfire. Having a dysfunctional relationship with Mexico hurts the United States as well.

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Sunday, March 04, 2018

Gordon Wood's Friends Divided

I thoroughly enjoyed Gordon S. Wood's Friends Divided: John Adams and Thomas Jefferson (2017). It is essentially a co-biography focusing on their relationship. Their human-ness comes through nicely, their pettiness, insecurities, ambitions, self-deception, etc. Jefferson loved the French Revolution no matter what, hated the the idea of industrializing, and overall was naive. Adams was too pro-monarchy and prone to self-pity for how he was not appreciate enough. And they sniped at each other.

Fundamentally, Adams believed the worst in people and Jefferson the best. Jefferson grasped the meaning and promise of the American revolution while Adams had a darker view about how humanity would always be unequal. So, as Wood, points out in perhaps the best last sentence I've ever read in a biography: "That's why we honor Jefferson and not Adams."

The book is erudite but accessible and nicely paced. I already knew the basic story but got a lot out of it.

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Friday, March 02, 2018

Latin America Reacts to Trump's Trade War

Donald Trump announced a trade war on steel. Yes, he literally did that this morning. No joke. Trade wars are ugly and everyone loses. Brazil has already announced it is considering retaliation.

Brazil's Industry Ministry on Thursday expressed "enormous concern" about the proposed U.S. tariffs and underscored that Brazil may take "multilateral or bilateral" action to protect its interests. 
The ministry said its steel industry was not a threat to the United States, noting that 80 percent of its steel exports are semi-finished products that serve as an important input for the American steel industry. The statement also noted that Brazil is the biggest importer of metallurgical coal from the United States.
Mexico has done the same.


Mexico expressly asked Washington to exclude it from any steel tariffs and will have “no option” but to retaliate with tariffs of its own if the US does not, a source close to the Mexican position said after Donald Trump announced plans to levy a 25 per cent tariff on steel imports.


It will also hurt Argentina, which is responding with cautious alarm.

En la Argentina, la noticia fue recibida con cautela. El gobierno de Mauricio Macri optó por eludir cualquier pronunciamiento oficial. La Cámara Argentina del Acero (CAA), que agrupa a las principales empresas siderúrgicas, manifestó "su preocupación" a través de un comunicado, y destacó que "aún no se conoce el alcance preciso de la medida en términos de productos y países afectados".

It is difficult to overstate what a bad idea this is. These three countries are all U.S. allies in Latin America and aside from hurting all the economies involved, it is a statement that the United States wishes not to be a regional leader. The economic hurt will ripple out.

Update (3/5/18): Paul Ryan says he is opposed:

“We are extremely worried about the consequences of a trade war and are urging the White House to not advance with this plan,” a spokeswoman for Mr. Ryan said in a statement. “The new tax reform law has boosted the economy and we certainly don’t want to jeopardize those gains.”

Since he has been right in line with Trump, this is an important dissident voice. We'll see whether this constitutes the shooting down of a trial balloon.

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Thursday, March 01, 2018

Calling For a Coup in Venezuela

Marco Rubio is now formally calling for a coup in Venezuela, though he's made offhand comments about it before, as did Rex Tillerson.

Maduro and his inner circle have destroyed democracy and replaced it with dictatorship. But the Venezuelan military, with the popular support of their citizenry, can end this dictatorship and restore their people’s freedom, dignity, and right to govern themselves. If, and when, they choose to, I believe they will enjoy overwhelming support from the United States and other free nations of the world.

This is signalling. I discussed the same last year with regard to the 2009 coup in Honduras:

Johnston's narrative shows how the Honduran coup plotters were looking for positive signals from the United States (an issue that Kathryn Sikkink discusses in her book Mixed Signals, which I am actually using right now in my U.S.-Latin American relations seminar). According to Johnston's account, they went looking in particular at the Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies, where they got an informal positive sense. It's hard to believe they took that as official approval, but if it happened then they certainly would've been heartened. They also knew for sure that they would find strong congressional support in the U.S.

Rubio is repeating this stuff in the hope that Venezuelan military officers feel more comfortable with the idea that they will be protected if they move forward. The U.S. will make the money flow if you do it.

I've talked about the problems with promoting coups here and others have done so in a bunch of different venues.

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Wednesday, February 28, 2018

Gaming Jared Kushner

Following up on my occasional series of posts on the dangers of over-personalizing U.S.-Mexican relations (see here and here) now we learn that Mexico was one of four countries (in addition to UAE, China, and Israel) hoping to take advantage of Jared Kushner's position and lack of experience. In other words, they hoped to game him. White House officials concerned he was "naive and being tricked" as indeed he probably was. Now his security clearance has been downgraded.

What does this mean for U.S.-Mexican relations? Kushner's personal relationship with Luis Videgaray is currently the main channel. I don't know exactly what lack of access to information will mean for that relationship. Donald Trump can still tell Kushner whatever he wants. I assume Videgaray will be on the phone to Kushner, assuring him that this is fake news and that their relationship is genuine. It wouldn't surprise me if Kushner believed it.

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Sexual Harassment in the Study of Latin American Politics

Academia is buzzing with this story in the Chronicle of Higher Education about how Terry Karl was sexually harassed by Jorge Dominguez at Harvard when she was a new professor and he was an established name in the field. It is disgusting to read, both for what he did and for how Harvard did so little.

A former graduate student says she knew, was warned, and warned others. Rest assured that more of such comments will be forthcoming, likely many more because Dominguez has been at Harvard for decades.

These are huge names in my field and I am glad this is getting attention because it should have a positive ripple effect, even if far too late in coming. Of course, you also think about how many similar situations have played out in colleges and universities that fall under the radar and don't get this kind of attention. There are lots of brooms sweeping lots under rugs.

Update 3/5/18: Oh yes, many more women are being forthcoming and now he is on leave.

Update 3/6/18: Now he's retiring. And a bit later in the day the Latin American Studies Association, of which he was once president, issued a statement denouncing him:

The Latin American Studies Association (LASA) recognizes that sexual and gender-based harassment and violence are contrary to its core principles and therefore has zero tolerance for unwelcome sexual advances or conduct of a sexual nature that is intimidating, hostile, or offensive. 
LASA is a diverse organization currently of 16,000 members in up to 90 countries that has been historically committed to equal opportunity, respect for human rights, and the promotion of environments free of discrimination and all forms of coercion and abuse of power that impede the academic freedom, security, or well-being of any member of its community and their associated institutions. 
Over the past four days we have heard about old and new serious sexual harassment complaints against Jorge Domínguez, a professor at Harvard University, who was President of our association in 1982 – 1983. Such behavior has no place in our organization. If harassment occurs within an organization, there must be a reliable and effective channel to make complaints and the authorities must apply public sanctions to the transgressors. We therefore urge the authorities of Harvard University to investigate the new complaints and to act accordingly. 
Most importantly, we extend our solidarity to all who are survivors of Jorge Dominguez’s unacceptable conduct and its apparent long-term tolerance by Harvard University. 
Given the circumstances, the LASA Executive Council considers this as an ideal opportunity to recommit LASA as an association to stand up against all kinds of abuse of power and impunity, both in the political and academic spheres, and throughout all the Americas. And LASA emphasizes its policy of zero tolerance of sexual harassment and impunity. The association is taking a series of measures, including creating a task force, that will be shortly announced to the membership and the broader public to ensure that in the future individuals who engage in such reprehensible behavior will have no place in leadership positions at LASA.

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Tuesday, February 27, 2018

Should Kuczynski Resign?

According to a GfK poll, 55% of Peruvians think Pedro Pablo Kuczynski should resign, 43% do not think so, and 2% do not know. He has the least support in rural areas and among the poor. Right now he faces a disapproval rating of 82% and has only 15% approval.

His corruption scandal, plus the infamous pardon of Alberto Fujimori, seem to be fatal blows to this presidency. If you're wondering, presidential terms in Peru are five years and PPK took office in July 2016. In other words, lame duck status is kicking in awfully early and he will continue to face impeachment pushes from Congress.

Presidents seem always to be unpopular in Peru. Back in 2010 Alan García blamed it on Peruvians being sad. There really is no precedent in the country for bouncing back.

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Monday, February 26, 2018

Chilean Student Activism and Florida

Four Chilean Diputados, all of them former student activists, wrote a letter in solidarity with the Floridian students fighting for gun control. The letter noted the history of student activism in Chile.

I am curious to see whether this gets any attention in the United States. My first thought was that I have no idea whether they actually have anything in common with the Floridians because in Chile the struggle is rooted in the quest for greater socio-economic equality in general while in Florida it has nothing to do with socio-economic status and instead is single-issue.

My second thought is that setting that point aside, there is a real model here for how to go from activism to trying to change the system from within by getting elected. And this is a time, I think, where that there is an opening for that in the U.S. Brendan O'Boyle wrote something along these lines in Americas Quarterly just a few days ago.

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Personal Over Diplomatic Relations in Mexico

I am quoted in this Business Insider article about the danger of using solely personal rather than diplomatic avenues for bilateral relations, in this case the U.S. and Mexico. I wrote a post on this topic a few weeks ago. Beyond the fact that Jared Kushner does not appear to be a very knowledgeable person, relying on individuals is tenuous. If one of these individuals leaves their position to whatever reason, you have a hole that the State Department is not in a position to fill.

I wonder how many other regional but even national bilateral relations are conducted like this these days?

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Friday, February 23, 2018

Rafael Correa and Donald Trump Totally Agree

Former Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa wrote a column in Granma that was translated into English and then published at TeleSur. It claims to cover the "strategic challenge" of the Latin American left, but he never actually mentions strategy. Instead, it is Correa's list of grievances. Knowing Correa, there should be no surprise that his two main enemies are the media and the current president Lenín Moreno.

His beef with Moreno is well known and mirrors the Uribe-Santos split in Colombia. It's tough when your chosen successor, your person, decides he has his own brain and does not need to blindly copy what you do.

The attacks on the media, though, are more troubling and Correa has always been in the middle of it. Journalists are being harassed and killed across the region because they threaten the powerful. No matter whether you are left or right, when you hold the presidency then you are powerful and the press has the obligation to follow their leads. Of course, we see the exact same dynamic with Donald Trump here. Correa calls the media the "main opposition" to the left, while Trump says it is the "opposition party" of the right.

It's disheartening to see the Latin American left and United States right converge, but there we are. TeleSur and Fox News are two sides of the same coin. Correa and Trump agree wholeheartedly about their disgust with freedom of the press.

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Thursday, February 22, 2018

Deriding U.S. Policy Toward Latin America

I wrote a new post over at Global Americans on the global response to Rex Tillerson's Latin America trip. I argue that it is a troubling sign of a trend toward the world viewing U.S. policy with derision. First paragraph:

The dust has settled after Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s visit to Latin America. In itself, it was no disaster, though clearly no success either. The greater significance lies in what it reveals about the basic direction of U.S. engagement with Latin America. The trip shows that U.S. policy is damaging U.S. stature not just in the region, but globally.

Go over there to see the rest. This is not just Latin America responding to U.S. policy toward the region, but the rest of the world as well. Even Australia is explicitly saying it wants to take advantage of U.S. missteps in Latin America.

The U.S. has always been criticized. Widespread derision is new.

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Wednesday, February 21, 2018

Fleeing Venezuela

Go check out Adam Isacson's blog, where he is periodically posting updates about his extensive trip to Colombia. In today's post he has photos from a visit to the border with Venezuela. To sum up:

It’s bad. I mean, it’s really bad. People are doing whatever they can to get out of Venezuela.

NPR published a story just yesterday on this issue.

There were more than half a million Venezuelans in Colombia as of December, according to the Colombian immigration department, and many came over in the last two years. Their exodus rivals the number of Syrians in Germany or Rohingya in Bangladesh. Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, a political risk consulting firm, calls it the world's "least-talked-about" immigration crisis.
 But Colombians are taking notice. In fact, President Juan Manuel Santos is asking for international aid to cope with the large numbers of immigrants, many of whom are impoverished, hungry and desperate.


The story is about the crossing Adam went to. One migrant sold her hair to a wig shop to earn money for food. There are now many news stories in English about the crisis.

The Venezuelan government's response? Create a cryptocurrency and claim it was solve your own mismanagement of the regular currency.

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Tuesday, February 20, 2018

LGBT Legislation in Argentina vs. Brazil

Omar G. Encarnación, "Gay Rights Landscapes in Argentina and Brazil," Human Rights Quarterly 40, 1 (February 2018): 194-218. Link here but gated.

Abstract:

Why did Latin America’s most famously sexually liberated country, Brazil, fall behind one of its most socially conservative societies, Argentina, in expanding LGBT equality? This essay examines this puzzling question through the lens of the divergent landscapes of gay rights that have erupted in Argentina and Brazil since both countries became liberal democracies in the mid-1980s. Looking beyond differences in support for LGBT legislation by the executive branch, the religious context, the composition of the party system, and levels of social and economic development, this study focuses on the gay rights campaign. While in Brazil the campaign for gay rights followed the model of a conventional political struggle for civil rights, in Argentina it was framed as a human rights crusade, a strategy that, among other things, resonated profoundly with the country’s search for justice, equality and the deepening of democracy.

I think this is really interesting. A bit more:

In Argentina, gay activists waged a “human rights crusade,” animated by a very expansive, even idealistic, notion of gay equality, especially in connection to the issue of same-sex marriage. It regarded the freedom of sexuality as a fundamental human right. Argentina’s influential human rights community served as the campaign’s political anchor. This grounding in the human rights movement helped boost the framing of the campaign for gay rights as a human rights crusade and as part of a larger struggle by civil society for justice, citizenship, and democracy. It also enhanced the campaign’s success in mutually-supporting ways, such as prioritizing changing hearts and minds about homosexuality over enacting LGBT legislation; giving the campaign tremendous resonance within the culture at large (given the prominence of human rights in Argentine politics); and affording the advocacy of gay activists a rare moral significance that worked to undercut societal opposition to gay rights.
 Brazilian gay rights activists, by contrast, engaged for the most part in a “civil rights struggle.” Its overarching goal was to legitimize gay rights under Brazilian law. For instance, there was no marriage equality campaign in Brazil. Instead, gay activists demanded “stable unions,” which are recognized under the Brazilian Constitution. For its political anchor, Brazilian gay activists depended upon an alliance with the Workers’ Party (PT), the first party in Latin America to embrace gay rights. This alliance was a mixed blessing for the gay rights movement. On the one hand, it gave Brazilian activists visibility, organizational expertise, and access to state resources unparalleled in all of Latin America. On the other hand, the close affiliation of gay activists with the PT undermined the ambition of the gay rights movement; discouraged building support for gay rights within civil society by focusing the struggle for gay rights squarely within the legislature and the courts; and solidified opposition to gay rights by foes of the gay community, who were quick to label gay rights as “special rights.”


A key point here is that the struggle in Argentina was conducted outside political institutions, whereas in Brazil is had started within the Worker's Party (despite later being ignored by Lula) and focused primarily on state mechanisms to advance. In Argentina the focus was first on human rights and then on the nuts and bolts of legislation. The lesson: if you're an activist, be careful about hitching your wagon to a political party.

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Monday, February 19, 2018

My New Article on Chilean Military

I just published a new academic article that's had a funny life. Here's the link to a PDF.


Gregory Weeks, “Civilian Inattention and Democratization: The Chilean Military and Political Transition in the 1930s.” Canadian Journal of Latin American and Caribbean Studies 43, 1 (2018): 1-17.

Abstract:
The Chilean political transition that took place in 1932 is commonly viewed as positive for civil-military relations. This article argues that the very means used to restore stable civilian rule in Chile in the 1930s also contributed to the slow decay of civil-military relations, especially with the army. The conceptual lesson for the contemporary period is that civilian control entails much more than avoiding coups or rebellion in the short term. Civil-military institutions and civilian leadership matter for democracy. Although civilian strategies proved highly effective in the short term, the failure to strengthen civil-military institutions ultimately carried with it a high cost in the longer term. Compounded over years, civilian inattention can lead to estrangement, which in turn can gradually erode civilian supremacy and, by extension, democracy itself.

I've been messing with this article off and on for over 10 years. I found it fascinating and fun to research, but of course as anyone who reads this blog knows, I am a big fan of political history. But I found it is too history for political science and too political science for history. I submitted it unsuccessfully to several journals, set it aside, picked it up again, and so on. I liked it enough that I did not want to quit. This particular peer review time was extremely long (several years altogether) which is another difficult aspect of academia.

As for the article itself, I use a historical case study to examine the long term effects of Latin American civilian leaders not paying sufficient attention to their militaries. Short-term "subordination" does not necessarily mean long-term stability.

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Not Protesting Venezuela

Bret Stephens, one of the New York Times' resident conservatives, wonders why college students do not protest about Venezuela. Instead of the various obvious answers, he chooses the inaccurate but beloved boogeyman of the right: the academic left is to blame.

So why the relative silence? Part of the reason is that campus activism is a left-wing phenomenon, making it awkward to target left-wing villains.
 A larger reason is that, until a few years ago, the Venezuelan regime was a cause of the left, cheered by people like Naomi Klein, Sean Penn and Danny Glover.


I have taught Latin American Politics and U.S.-Latin American relations regularly for 20 years, and I have something to report: students don't know what's going on in Venezuela.  They have a vague sense that something bad is happening, but not a clear view of what the U.S. can do. To the extent that they even know who Danny Glover is, they are not paying attention to his stance on the issue.

Further, I am not at all sure that students trust the Trump administration to do the right thing. They are therefore less likely to issue a call for the administration to meddle.

This is anecdotal, of course. Maybe there are students at other schools who were thinking about protesting but just are afraid because Hugo Chávez was leftist. But I tend to doubt it. Chávez started his rule many years ago and died before many students were even in college yet. The academic left is a fun and easy target but almost always a gross oversimplification.


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Sunday, February 18, 2018

U.S. Meddling in Politics

Here is former CIA Director James Woolsey joking that the U.S. still meddles in elections around the world "only for a very good cause."


And yet we call Latin American leaders paranoid for believing that the United States is going to interfere in their political systems for our own benefit. "Very good cause" rarely means what's best for the country itself, or what the people of that country actually want. It is, as Woolsey says, for the good of the "system." And we are the system.

Ah, exceptionalism. Your average American is likely indignant that Russia interfered in the 2016 election, but simultaneously feels confident that if the U.S. government does so abroad, it's for the right reasons because we are the shining example of the world. That our own democracy has been so sharply eroded tends not to register.

Finally, I come back to the joking. It's funny to cause mayhem, illegitimacy, and death.

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Saturday, February 17, 2018

PRI Blames AMLO For Violence

Andrés Manuel López Obrador is regularly accused of all sorts of things, but this is the first time I've seen him accused of fomenting violence.

El líder nacional del PRI, Enrique Ochoa Reza, aseguró que la violencia en el país se duplicó luego de que Andrés Manuel López Obrador, propusiera una amnistía a criminales. 

Now, I will say that it would be fascinating to do a study about whether the anticipation of amnesty increases the frequency of whatever thing is currently prohibited.

But.

Violence in Mexico is deeply rooted and not new, and the PRI is responsible for a chunk of it. The party in power obviously has more impact than a candidate, even if that candidate has a good chance of winning. Not a winning move for the PRI.

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Thursday, February 15, 2018

Podcast Episode 48: What DACA Recipients Deal With

In Episode 48 of Understanding Latin American Politics: The Podcast, I talk with Ana Valdez Curiel, who is an undergraduate here at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte. She is an activist and involved in a lot of different things but for the purposes of this conversation I have to note that she was brought to the United States as a young child and is currently a recipient of Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or DACA.


This is a personal look at DACA and we talk about the stress involved, the uncertainty about life, the misperceptions people have, and the debate over the “good” vs. “bad” immigrant. Congress is dealing with the issueright now and the stakes are high.

Thanks to Alex Frizzell for doing the recording, which for the first time we did at a studio here on the UNC Charlotte campus.


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Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Players in the Cuba Sonic Attack Mystery

Tim Golden and Sebastian Rotella have a great long read at ProPublic on the Cuba sonic attack mystery. The sounds seem to be non-natural but why is it happening?

The players:

Cuban government: does not want to antagonize the U.S. and appears to be cooperating fully. But what about rogue groups within the government? Could they be doing this without Raul Castro's knowledge? Unlikely but we don't know.

Russia: Has a history of harassing U.S. diplomats. Loves to make trouble. Maybe does not want Cuba getting closer to the U.S. right when Russia is trying to replace Venezuela and get closer to its old friend. But do old friends back stab each other? And how do a bunch of Russian agents go around Havana without the Cuban government knowing?

North Korea: Rogue country, crazy leader, would love to mess with the U.S. But there is no reason Cuba would allow this, and a bunch of North Koreans running around would definitely attract attention.

Venezuela: rogue and all that. But Cuban intelligence taught them everything they know and no way they're hanging around without Cuba knowing.

Donald Trump: showing uncharacteristic restraint, but still used the crisis to kick out some Cubans and bring U.S. diplomats home. Is mostly uninterested in Cuba except as a way to say Obama does bad deals.

Marco Rubio: Wants rapprochement to end, gets all excited on Twitter. Is happy to use the mystery for political ends. Holds hearings that tell us little.

Canadians: some had issues seemingly related to sounds but they were milder and different. Canadians didn't criticize Cuba and didn't bring anyone home. We like the tourism, eh.

Cuba migrants: screwed because there are not enough personnel in the U.S. embassy to process them. No visa for you!

Cicada expert: don't malign the poor creatures! You'd have to shove one in your ear for this to happen.

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Tuesday, February 13, 2018

Podcast Episode 47: Political Change in Venezuela

In Episode 47 of Understanding Latin American Politics: The Podcast, I talk with Geoff Ramsey, Assistant Director of the Venezuela Program at the Washington Office on Latin America. As part of that position, he contributes to the Venezuelan Politics and Human Rights blog. They discuss what possibilities there are for political change in Venezuela, including dialogue, international pressure, elections, and military actions. Not exactly an uplifting conversation but we try to end on a positive note.


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OAS Report on Human Rights Abuses in Venezuela

The OAS' Inter-American Commission on Human Rights issued a report on the human rights situation in Venezuela. Here is the press release and here is the report. It is blistering.

The report concludes with 76 recommendations. The ones that go beyond democratization show how far Venezuela has fallen.

Regularly monitor the nutritional state of the population and investigate testimonies of specific cases of food deprivation, foodrelated corruption, and failure to receive assistance due to lack of inputs.

In other words, feed your people. We'll soon hear denunciations of the report and the IACHR more generally, but people are not getting enough calories, enough medicine, and enough social services.

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Monday, February 12, 2018

Trump Doesn't Like Latin America Aid

The Congressional Research Service published a report comparing the Trump administration's aid proposal and that of the U.S. Congress. Trump wants to slash it (36% cut) while Congress wants to keep it.

Right off the bat the report says "the Administration’s proposed cuts, combined with other policy shifts, could contribute to a relative decline in U.S. influence in the region." This is stark. It is followed by with several paragraphs later in the report: "In the view of some observers, the Administration’s proposed foreign assistance cuts are part of a broader trend of U.S. disengagement from Latin America and the Caribbean."

Here is the last paragraph of the report:

Over the past year, public approval of U.S. leadership in the Americas has declined from 49% to 24% and disapproval has climbed from 27% to 58%. These relatively high disapproval ratings could constrain the ability of leaders in the hemisphere to work with President Trump, particularly in the six countries preparing to hold presidential elections in 2018.


A fitting and accurate way to conclude. The administration is actively disengaging from Latin America, seemingly as a way to save a little bit of money. This is a penny wise but pound foolish approach.

See also an article on this at InsightCrime.

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Saturday, February 10, 2018

Trump and Jimmy Morales Have a Convo

Donald Trump met with Guatemalan President Jimmy Morales, the TV celebrity turned corrupt executive-in-chief. Here is the entire White House statement (h/t Mike Allison). Guatemala's pressing problems right now are corruption and violence.

President Donald J. Trump met today with President James “Jimmy” Morales of Guatemala. President Trump thanked President Morales for supporting the United States and Israel, and for his announced decision to move the Guatemalan embassy to Jerusalem.  The two leaders discussed the situation in Venezuela and agreed to work together to restore democracy to the country.  President Trump also underscored the importance of stopping illegal immigration to the United States from Guatemala and addressing Guatemala’s underlying challenges to security and prosperity.

The upshot: I am not interested in you or your country. We have no plans of developing a strategy to reduce undocumented immigration, so you fix it. Follow our lead on Israel and I'll let you take a picture with me.

To be fair, the meeting is being seen by at least some in Guatemala in a better light and in a larger context, where at least through Rex Tillerson the message is that just moving your embassy doesn't get you off the hook with regard to corruption.

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Friday, February 09, 2018

Podcast Episode 46: Latin American Baseball

In Episode 46 of Understanding Latin American Politics: The Podcast I talk to Isabelle Minasian, who is an editor at Lookout Landing (a Seattle Mariners site) and a contributor for La Vida Baseball and The Hardball Times. She wrote an article about the Caribbean Winter Leagues for the 2018 Hardball Times Annual, which is the topic of our conversation. Since we're getting close to spring training, it seemed an opportune time to have my first podcast on baseball. It's not focused just on politics, though immigration and the Venezuelan conflict are in there.


I should also note that The Hardball Times has really been focusing more on previously excluded voices, especially women, which is really refreshing in such a male-dominated field. Their podcast is great.

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Cuba Defends Blocking Freedom of Expression

The Cuban government never sounds more unhinged than when it defends its right not to allow its citizens to use the internet. Case in point: this article in Granma about U.S. interference in Cuban affairs. It goes back in history to show all the examples of imperialist evil. For example:

Operation Surf, unmasked by State Security agent Raúl - Dalexi González Madruga – consisted of smuggling equipment and software into the country to install illegal antennas to access the internet.
Thank God an intelligence agent was able to stop the free flow of information!

The U.S. Department of State, headed by Condolezza Rice, creates the Global Internet Freedom Task Force, specifically aimed at “maximizing freedom of expression and free flow of information and ideas” in China, Iran and Cuba.

Fortunately this disgusting act of giving people access to the world was stopped!

Of course the U.S. has interfered in Cuba affairs in the past. I've written critically about it more times than I can count, both on the blog and in my own publications. But these examples are just naked authoritarianism, which the Cuban government is typically better at masking.

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Thursday, February 08, 2018

Dialogue Failure in Venezuela

The dialogue between the Venezuelan government and the opposition in the Dominican Republic has yielded a proposal from each side. Here is the government's and here is the opposition's.

There are points of agreement but the presidential election in particular keeps them apart. The opposition wants far more guarantees than the government offers. In particular, the opposition does not want a rushed election and needs guarantees that all political rights will not just be respected but will be restored to those who had them stripped for ideological reasons. That's where the government's version remains vague, so the opposition would not sign it. The dialogue is now in "indefinite recess."

So last night the government announced officially that presidential elections will be held April 22. Campaigning will only be allowed between April 2 and April 19. Many potential opposition candidates are either jailed or ruled ineligible. Maduro needs to have these elections quickly and without electoral reform because that's the only way he can win.

And now the opposition must decide whether it participates. Since in fact there is no single opposition, some may run while others boycott. Some may vote while others protest. The Chilean example of 1988 is always on people's minds--see my November 2017 post on that comparison.

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Wednesday, February 07, 2018

Stavridis Gently Schools Tillerson

James Stavridis, former head of U.S. Southern Command (and current Dean of the Fletcher School at Tufts), has an op-ed damning Rex Tillerson with faint praise, where he's off to a "good start" but basically needs to do everything differently. He says there are six steps the U.S. needs to take, somewhat like telling an addict how to change their ways. Right now we're addicted to failure.

1. Acknowledge how important Latin America is and develop an interagency strategy.
2. Prioritize Mexico and Brazil (including preserving NAFTA).
3. Acknowledge how critical Colombia is.
4. Elevate U.S.-Caribbean relations, especially Puerto Rico.
5. Engage with Cuba
6. Talk softly with Venezuela and let regional allies take the lead

Bonus: he says to stop talking about a "backyard" because it is condescending.

I agree with all of these points and the U.S. is doing poorly on just about every one. I guess Tillerson is doing a bit on #1 (at least traveling there even if showing historical ignorance) and is more solid on #4, but not on the rest.

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Tuesday, February 06, 2018

Putin Trolls Tillerson in Latin America

First China trolled Rex Tillerson. Now Russia is, with a statement from the Foreign Ministry.

The main takeaway is that the Monroe Doctrine continues to hold sway in Washington, even though it will turn 200 years old fairly soon, in 2023. The world has changed significantly over the years, but the America-for-Americans principle appears to be alive and well. 
Like President James Monroe in his time, Secretary Tillerson cited Russia to justify his conceptual framework, and so we would like to express our view of the region without arguing “by contradiction.”

Boom! The Russians know their history.

There's plenty of flowery nonsense in the statement.

Russia’s relations with Latin American countries are based on substantial shared interests, such as the commitment to the principles of multilateral diplomacy embodied in the UN’s activities, protection and assertion of national sovereignty, and promotion of sustainable development.

Yeah, right. The Russians are not known for their interest in diplomacy and protection of sovereignty, and ideology matters a lot, especially with Cuba and Venezuela, where Russia takes great glee in tweaking the U.S. But the Russians know better than Tillerson what history means in Latin America and they shove his nose in it.

The liberator (as he is referred to in Latin America) Simon Bolivar said that all states have the right to choose their own particular system of government, and other states must respect this choice. The Secretary of State will have the chance to read this eternally relevant quote, when he is in Bogota, at the main entrance to San Carlos Palace, which now houses the Colombian Foreign Ministry. It rings as true as ever today, including in relation to the situation in Venezuela and the dynamics of internal life in Cuba. The experience of half-a-century of US embargo failed to convince only the most obstinate individuals that sanctions pressure will not work against freedom-loving countries and peoples.

Mr. Secretary, make sure you get your historical references straight before the next trip.

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Monday, February 05, 2018

Would Trump Sanction Venezuelan Oil?

Rex Tillerson says the U.S. is considering restricting oil imports from Venezuela and U.S. export of refined products back. This had not been on the table in any serious way before because it will impact the U.S. economy directly.

“We are looking at options and we are looking at how to mitigate the impacts on U.S. business interests” and on other countries in the region, Tillerson said.

One thing working in the Trump administration's favor is that Venezuela's inability to produce has decreased the amount of Venezuelan oil that the U.S. consumes. Here's a simple chart you can recreate at the U.S. Energy Information Administration.



You can also see month to month going back to 1993. The drop is drastic. The question is whether the U.S. can find alternatives ahead of time that counterbalance the loss. I assume the administration will not pursue this policy if it means gas prices go up, especially when the midterm elections are dicey already (though interestingly Tillerson only mentioned "business interests" and not "average American" so assumptions are problematic). OPEC is already holding firm and is "over-compliant" because Venezuelan production is at its lowest level since 1989. In short, keeping prices low will be challenging.

I've long ceased trying to predict what Trump will do. But this will be a tricky game to play given its impact on U.S. domestic politics.

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Sunday, February 04, 2018

Xi Jinping Trolls Tillerson

As I noted two days ago, Rex Tillerson is trying to spread an unconvincing message of how good the U.S. is versus China. In response, Xi Jinping made a point of celebrating 30 years of relations with Uruguay and promising more.

President Xi Jinping vowed to expand ties with Uruguay in a “comprehensive way” in a message sent to his Uruguayan counterpart Tabare Vasquez on Saturday to mark the 30th anniversary of the establishment of bilateral ties. 
Relations between China and Uruguay had “witnessed great progress” over the past three decades, Xi said in the message.

He would have sent such a message even without Tillerson's prompt but the Chinese government followed it up:

“What the United States said is entirely against the truth and displayed disrespect to the vast number of Latin American countries,” China’s foreign ministry said in a statement. “China is a major international buyer of Latin American bulk commodities, and imports more and more agricultural and high-value-added products from the region.” 
“The development of China-Latin America ties does not target or reject any third party, nor does it affect the interests of third parties in Latin America,” it added.

This is actually more truthful than Tillerson.

The press has been talking about how Tillerson's message is different than Trump's, which is true to a a degree. The China comments seem very Trumpish, however, with the mix of criticism and self-aggrandizement. Like many Trumpish messages, it is a bad idea and will backfire. Latin America does not need or want the United States to say what's good for everyone. Latin American leaders are perfectly capable of sorting out what kind of ties they want with China.

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Saturday, February 03, 2018

Race 2: Gold Rush 5K

The Gold Rush is the 5K on the UNC Charlotte campus, which we have done off and on since it started (years ago it was so small I won awards, but now it's big). Great new look this year, with the biggest change being that all pre and post race stuff was in Belk Gym. Previously everything was on the track and this time of year can be cold (it was in the high 20s at race time). My 9 year old daughter came in second in her age group, with her friend in first (ok, there were only two in the field, but still). So they got a picture with Norm.



Campus is hilly and mile 3 was tough as a result, but it's always a fun race to do.

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US Getting Closer to Mexico and That's a Problem

A few days ago I noted how Mexico's exports to the United States had actually increased during the Trump administration. Now Mexico's Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray says Mexico's relationship with the United States is closer now than it was during Obama or Bush.

“I think in many ways the relationship today is more fluid, it’s closer than it was with previous administrations, which might be surprising to some people but that’s a fact of life,” said Mexico’s top diplomat.

Fluid, yes, no doubt. It's hard to pin down what the U.S. position is on many issues because they change with every tweet. As for closer, I would hazard the guess that given uncertainty and a skeleton staff at the State Department, Mexican diplomats have to work harder to develop personal relationships with Trump's top aides. In fact, Videgaray may be referring specifically to his relationship with Jared Kushner. From last October:

“Jared and Videgaray pretty much run Mexico policy,” the U.S. official told me earlier this year. “It’s all pretty much just between them. There’s not really any interagency relationships going on right now.” In the State Department, he explained, career diplomats were no longer kept informed: “U.S. officials sometimes learn the latest not from their own agencies but from their Mexican counterparts—especially Videgaray.”

The "closer" is therefore not a positive sign. It is not based on broad institutional relationships but solely on personal ones. That makes it weaker.

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Friday, February 02, 2018

What to Take From Tillerson's Latin America Vision

Rex Tillerson's laid out a vision of U.S.-Latin American relations yesterday in a speech at UT Austin on the eve of his Latin America trip. Some of the comments were good, and to some degree contradicted Donald Trump. Some of them, though, are cringe-worthy.

Let's starts with the good.

--Trump has been decidedly negative about Colombia and Tillerson was the opposite. He praised Juan Manuel Santos, the peace agreement, and the U.S. role as consumer of drugs.


The problem with the coca production is – it’s a significant problem. It’s a problem to us, it’s a shared problem. As I said in my remarks, we don’t like to admit it, but we’re the market. The United States accounts for the vast, vast, vast majority of illicit drug consumption in the world. And until we address that problem at home, it’s a bit awkward to hold them solely accountable for being the supplier.

He made that point several times and I am glad to hear it.

--His comments on Venezuela and Cuba are measured and he rejects use of force against Venezuela, which Trump infamously said was in the table. This is good. No problematic signals that would lead to more U.S. isolation.

But there is quite a lot of bad.

--His sense of history is awful.

At the beginning of the 20th century, President Teddy Roosevelt visited Panama – the first foreign visit of a U.S. sitting president in our history.
Roosevelt had just basically taken Panama from Colombia for U.S. gain but Tillerson frames it as Pan Americanism. The canal later would become so much a symbol of U.S. disregard for sovereignty that even Henry Kissinger advocated giving it up to Panama.

He thinks the Monroe Doctrine has been a success. Even worse, a historian asking him the question seemed to think the same. The answer showed that Tillerson does not really know what the history of the doctrine is.

Well, I think it clearly has been a success, because as I mentioned at the top, what binds us together in this hemisphere are shared democratic values, and while different countries may express that democracy not precisely the same way we practice democracy in this country, the fundamentals of it – respect for the dignity of the human being, respect for the individual to pursue life, liberty, happiness – those elements do bind us together in this hemisphere.

Since he mentioned TR he should take a look at the Roosevelt Corollary to better see why Latin America considers the Monroe Doctrine in entirely negative terms.

--He is blinded by the idea of U.S. goodness. This is evident when he tries to show that Chinese investment is worse than U.S. investment.

China – as it does in emerging markets throughout the world – offers the appearance of an attractive path to development. But in reality, this often involves trading short-term gains for long-term dependency. 
Just think about the difference between the China model of economic development and the United States version. 
China’s offer always come at a price – usually in the form of state-led investments, carried out by imported Chinese labor, onerous loans, and unsustainable debt. The China model extracts precious resources to feed its own economy, often with disregard for the laws of the land or human rights.

Long-term dependency and disregard for land and human rights are a staple of U.S. economic relations with Latin America. The Chinese labor issue is indeed weird and controversial but U.S. investment has never been somehow ideal.

Latin American – Latin America does not need new imperial powers that seek only to benefit their own people.

Ha ha! They only need one, people!

--He is ignorant about Honduras.

My question is: What is the Trump administration’s policy regarding support for free and fair democratic elections in the Americas, and will it work with the OAS in ensuring that those democratic standards are respected equally across the hemisphere? 
SECRETARY TILLERSON: Well, our position’s the same in every country. And in the case of the Honduran elections, we also looked at other organizations’ assessment of the election in terms of was it conducted in a free and fair way, was the election legitimate. In terms of why the OAS came to a different conclusion – which was actually different than the original conclusion they came to, they changed their position – I’d refer you to the OAS to ask them. But we did look at the circumstances of the election. We concluded it was conducted fairly. And I think there’s no – and I want to be clear here. There can be no comparison between the election process that was conducted in Honduras and the election process that’s going on in Venezuela. They’re nowhere close to one another. Thank you for the question, though.

This is all bullshit. It is not possible for a rational person to consider the Honduran election to be fair. And yes, you CAN compare it to Venezuela, where an incumbent manipulates state institutions to remain in power.

Now let's see what he says when he arrives.

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Thursday, February 01, 2018

Mexican Business Culture

Mexican Business Culture: Essays on Tradition, Ethics, Entrepreneurship and Commerce, and the State is an edited volume by Carlos Coria-Sánchez and John Hyatt that seeks to correct misconceptions and stereotypes about doing business in Mexico. The co-editors are respectively a colleague of mine here at UNC Charlotte (in the Department of Languages and Culture Studies) and a former student of mine who has now lived for years in Mexico. The authors of the chapters are a mix of both Americans and Mexicans from an array of different disciplines.

The upshot is that consulting trade books about doing business in Mexico can be a dicey thing. Corporate culture and entrepreneurship are certainly different than in the United States, but not necessarily for the reasons we assume, and certainly not for the reasons we absorb through stereotypes. Further, the relationship businesses have with the state has evolved after the PRI lost its hegemonic hold on power. Coria argues that too many narrow analyses represent "Mexicanism" where "Mexico and Mexicans are what the authors want them to be, not what they are" (p. 23).

If you're thinking of doing business in Mexico or want to know more, go check it out.

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Trump's Cuba Policy

For many, many, many years the United States government banged its head against a wall as it tried to force Latin America to accept its Cuba policy. Years of U.S. intervention had left the region cold to U.S. efforts to dictate what happened in Cuba. Moreover, U.S. insistence made Latin America less likely to do anything for fear of looking like a stooge at home.

That's the policy that Barack Obama started to reverse in late 2014.

Just over three years later, the Trump administration has decided it loves useless head banging and likes isolating the United States from the rest of the western hemisphere. Here is what a State Department official said as Rex Tillerson got ready to leave for his Latin America trip:


"The upcoming undemocratic transition of political authority in Cuba is likely to be raised at multiple stops throughout the secretary's trip," the State Department official said, alluding to President Raul Castro's decision to step down later this year and be replaced by a handpicked successor.

This is mindbogglingly counterproductive. Latin American leaders will immediately take him less seriously and wonder when the hell the Cold War is finally going to end.

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Wednesday, January 31, 2018

Spanish Response to State of the Union

One less remarked upon aspect of the State of the Union is the Spanish-language response. While Joe Kennedy gave the regular one, Elizabeth Guzmán, a Peruvian-American Representative from Virginia, gave one in Spanish. Importantly, it is her own, not a translation of his. This is important both from gender and ethnic perspectives. And she is more blunt:

"Él ha remplazado la igualdad por la intolerancia, el respeto mutuo por el racismo", dijo la legisladora estatal, quien acusó al presidente de insultar "a las personas que tengan una ascendencia diferente a la de él".

That's quite different from Kennedy, who didn't even refer to Trump specifically, much less openly call him racist.

At this point, we're asking the same question that's been sitting there for years. At what point will the "sleeping giant" of Latino voters become decisive? The stakes are high in the 2018 midterm elections, though of course they were even higher for the 2016 presidential election, and it didn't happen. Let's see how many leaders like Guzmán get a national stage.

Update: one problem with Kennedy's response: he says he wants to talk directly to DREAMers and then starts speaking a bit in Spanish, giving everyone the impression that they can't speak English.

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Tuesday, January 30, 2018

Mexico's Exports Increase

My former student John Hyatt alerted me to this article in El Universal about how Mexican non-petroleum exports to the United States increased 7.2% in 2017 over 2016. The biggest gain was in the car industry.

They speculate there are two main possible reasons. First, Mexican exporters are jumping to sell what they can before Donald Trump does something to NAFTA. Second, they are just taking advantage of the weak peso, which was caused in no small part by Trump's election.

I actually think the most important aspect of the data is that Mexican exports to other parts of the world grew by 15.8%. What this means it that as NAFTA disaster looms, Mexico is already poised and ready to increase its trade with the rest of the world. Its other major trading partners are Canada, China, Germany, and Japan. Right now Mexico is working to expand trade with the European Union in general.

Not surprisingly in the Trump era, the U.S. loses.

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Seth Dickinson's The Traitor Baru Cormorant

Seth Dickinson's The Traitor Baru Cormorant (2015) is a political novel with a fantasy backdrop. When she is a child, the Masquerade Empire takes over Baru Cormorant's homeland, destroying her family in the process. Interestingly, one important way the empire cracks down is on sexuality. In Baru's homeland homosexuality and bisexuality are the norm (for example, she has two fathers) and the Masquerade harshly punishes that. She decides the only way to fight back and protect her home and way of life is to join the empire and wield power within it. She is thus a traitor all the way through and there is constant (and unexpected) treachery throughout the novel.

Imagine House of Cards combined with Game of Thrones. This is totally unlike George R.R. Martin's writing, though, which is long, immersive, and character-driven. Dickinson is sparer and the focus stays on the main character, though you don't really know what she's thinking. There is a lot about the logistics of empire and rebellion: taxes, psychology, military strategy, economic growth, etc. which all flows nicely.

There are two things that get mentioned multiple times that frame the book:

The Traitor's Qualm refers to the idea that potential rebels will stay publicly neutral as long as possible so that if things go bad, they can stay with the empire. There must be something about this in the political psychology literature but I don't know it. Baru spends a lot of time figuring out ways to court such allies.

The Hierarchic Qualm refers to the idea that you cannot sin when you are following a king or emperor's orders because you swore an oath to do so. It is just like Hannah Arendt's argument about the banality of evil. Adolf Eichmann said he wasn't guilty because he was just doing his job. That can justify massive bloodshed, as it does in this novel. And Baru is right in the middle of it.

It appears to be a two-book story and the sequel comes out in October 2018.

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Monday, January 29, 2018

Tillerson Off to Latin America

Rex Tillerson is going to Latin America in part to get more attention on the Venezuelan crisis. He'll also be going to Bogotá to talk about the peace process...er...I mean how Colombia isn't working hard enough for our tastes:

The Secretary will travel to Bogotá on February 6, where he will meet with President Juan Manuel Santos, Foreign Minister María Ángela Holguín, and other senior Colombian officials to discuss matters of importance including U.S. support for Colombia’s efforts to address the surge in coca cultivation and cocaine production, economic issues, and the growing refugee population.

No mention at all of the peace process. No mention of Honduras, the second biggest political crisis of the region, because that's all fine and dandy.

Getting Latin America focused productively is a good thing, to the extent that Tillerson has any shred of credibility as a leader. But we're missing the boat in so many other ways.

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Saturday, January 27, 2018

Don't Blame the Venezuelan Opposition

A caveat to start. The pronouncements of academic organizations don't matter much in any policy sense. But the Latin American Studies Association is huge and I've been a member for almost 25 years so I pay attention to what it says. Every so often it puts up resolutions about political issues for a vote. In the past, I've noted several times how the resolutions are basically an embarrassment of ideology and poor logic (here's one of the worst).

Then last July LASA finally put a Venezuela resolution up for vote that criticized the government. You'd have thought they had a resolution endorsing Hitler for all the debate about how the opposition deserves its own hate and there was not enough historicizing.

The sucker went up for a vote, though, and was approved. But most members didn't care. Only 18% bothered to vote, perhaps mirroring the least interested portions of the U.S. electorate. A group of academics (which I would've signed had I known about it) signed on to a strongly worded letter. It was just published in LASA Forum:


This experience raises an obvious and troubling question: What is the matter with LASA? In our view, there are at least two core problems. First, the operating mantra of the association is to provide political balance, and on any position to give equal weight to all sides. This may be emotionally satisfying for some but it is not much of a guide to discovering or identifying the truth of a situation. Truth depends on evidence, not on achieving a balance of opposing views. The second and perhaps more critical element is that for a substantial faction in the Association criticism of anything that comes clothed in leftist rhetoric is unacceptable. This conflates political correctness with ideological solidarity. 

This is on point. Further:

The result of the vote on the Venezuela resolution suggests a massive indifference within LASA to the fate of the country. Although the resolution won over 70% of votes cast (1,747 Yes, 463 No, 257 Abstentions) LASA requires that for any resolution to pass, at least 20% of the total membership (13,418) must vote. In this case only 18% bothered to do so. That more than 80% of the members of the Latin American Studies Association are either indifferent to or unaware of the destruction of democracy in Venezuela and the devastation faced by Venezuelans is shocking and shameful. Something is seriously wrong and one can only hope that things change for the better. The undersigned lament this situation and protest the behavior of the previous LASA leadership and EC in the strongest possible terms.

Blaming the opposition for the government's actions is akin to blaming the victim of a police shooting. Further, in authoritarian contexts there is no "on the other hand" when you talk about human rights abuses and democracy. Supporting the Venezuelan government at this point means accepting brutality and venality as normal.

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Friday, January 26, 2018

Latin America Outlook Good (Except Venezuela)

In the endless commodity cycle, the International Monetary Fund says Latin America is on an upswing. The post could actually be labeled "except Venezuela." They actually have growth numbers for 2018 and 2019 with and without Venezuela because it drags down the average so much.



That's one hell of a drag. The downside to this otherwise optimistic report is that all the growth and momentum is centered on commodities: copper, other mining, good harvests (of unspecified products), and slight rise in oil prices. We've been here before.

But back to "except Venezuela." The juicy tidbit that the media justifiably picked up on is that inflation is projected to reach 13,000%. Just sit back and let that soak in. I can barely wrap my head around it. To help, here's Hannah Dreier, who until last year was AP's corresponded there.


Back in the worst days of Bolivian hyperinflation, the rate was about 23,000%. The Bolivian example is also a reminder that you need to be careful about how you deal with inflation. Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada is demonized for his response much more than the military government for its role in creating it.

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Wednesday, January 24, 2018

Latin America Doesn't Like Trump

Gallup shows Donald Trump's approval in Latin America going over a cliff. In the aggregate, 16% of Latin Americans approve of him. The most approval comes from Venezuela and is born of desperation rather than admiration. Only six countries have approval of 20% or higher. As you might guess, it's quite hard to find Mexicans who approve of the job he's doing. I wonder who they are.

With its "America First" foreign policy, the Trump administration has made it clear that it will pursue immigration controls and border security measures. However, this region remains an important partner in trade and security for the United States, and striking a balance in years to come may prove difficult when Latin Americans as a whole disapprove of Trump's job performance in his first year. 
The same is true for how Latin Americans think the president will affect the relationship between their country and the U.S., with far more residents believing Trump will weaken the relationship compared with those who believed the same about Obama. Given Trump's recent actions and alleged comments regarding refugees and immigrants from Haiti and El Salvador, the future of these partnerships remains tenuous.

This is disastrously bad. I think it is safe to say that on the whole, Latin America sees Trump as someone who is likely to screw things up, possibly in ways that could directly hurt them. And there is good reason to think that way.

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China's Presence in Latin America

Stephen Kaplan at George Washington University has a post in the Monkey Cage asking whether the U.S. should be concerned about Chinese investment in Latin America. The argument is that Chinese economic activity in Latin America is mostly pragmatic and not ideological.

I agree and it's pretty uncontroversial among Latin Americanists at least (way back in 2009 ECLAC was openly calling for more!). He might downplay Chinese political interests a little too much (Taiwan does matter, for example) but the general point is that the alarmist "China is encroaching on our backyard" message is mostly unfounded. As I've pointed out as well, we need to keep Latin American agency in mind. Latin American leaders are not passively accepting Chinese investment--there are strategies, pushback, etc.

One point he makes that is especially worth noting is that China is actually defending an economic order that the U.S. is now starting to reject. It's been a weird year.

A final note: this seems to be the hot topic for 2018, which I predict we'll all be rather tired of by the end of the year.

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Monday, January 22, 2018

The Empty Rebellion in Venezuela

Nicholas Casey at The New York Times had been talking to Óscar Pérez, rogue police officer who was just killed by the Venezuelan government. If you are looking for incipient rebellion, you will not find optimism. For example:

“We wanted there to be a call to the streets that day, there to be big displays, that the people realized there a movement had started,” he said in one of his messages. “But unfortunately, there wasn’t one.”

It was all symbolism and no substance, meaning there is no movement behind his personal rebellion. He just hoped one would materialize. He captured the imagination of Venezuelans (he was, after all, an actor of action movies) and scared the government, but he had no plans for anything to come after. So he's both a symbol of resistance and of the disorganization that has permanently plagued those who oppose the government.

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Sunday, January 21, 2018

Race 1: Charleston Marathon

The issues of work/life balance and health get deserved attention in academic social media. Over the years running helped me in those regards, but with work and kids my wife and I stopped running for any significant distance. Now that my kids are old enough to watch themselves we're getting back into it and 2018 will be a big running year for us.

The first race of the year was a week ago when we ran the Charleston Marathon. We started training for that around September. Here I am almost at the finish line, where my nine-year old daughter jumped in to greet me and run a few steps.



It was in the 40s, which itself isn't bad when you're running, especially since it was sunny, but at times the wind was brutal. The course is flat, which is great, and at the end there are local craft beers and shrimp and grits waiting for you.

So we started 2018 with a marathon and we're thinking of ending it with another.

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TPS and Salvadorans in NC

I'm quoted in this local story for the Salisbury Post about TPS for Salvadorans. Salisbury and Rowan County are just northeast of Charlotte up Interstate 85. The reporter's goal was simply to educate the local population about the impact Trump's decision will have on the area and people who live there.

One thing I try to remind people of, whether it be in class, public talks, or elsewhere, is that these decisions hit home, all around you. Undocumented immigrants, whether they are currently protected or not, are deeply embedded in our communities. The bright student in your class may have undocumented parents and faces imminent upheaval. The owner of the business you like may be dealing with the constant stress of uncertainty. And your government is targeting people you know and like, labeling them as dangerous enemies.

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