Friday, November 02, 2007

Cuban cambio

At first glance, it seems like a straightforward story—young Cuban dissidents wear a rubber Lance Armstrong-type bracelet with the word “Cambio” (change) on it and then get arrested.

But wait, most kids wearing them did so for fashion reasons and have no interest in politics.

''Some people wear the AIDS ones which are yellow,'' González said. 'These are white, but in the schools a lot of kids wear it backwards, so you can't see the word `change.' For a lot of kids, it's nothing but a distraction. It doesn't matter to them if it says change or anything else.''

In other words, they aren’t “dissidents” at all, though the Cuban government rounded them up anyway for “social dangerousness.” So it is dangerous to be an unwitting dissident.

Then the story takes another, much weirder turn, as we discover that Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutiérrez wears his bracelet all the time, including in bed. No, I did not make that up.

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Thursday, November 01, 2007

Paraguay

In a classically corrupt Colorado Party move, the Paraguayan Supreme Court released Lino Oviedo (who was on parole) on a technicality, just coincidentally a few hours before the deadline to apply for a presidential run.

Under Paraguayan law, all candidates must be registered to vote and those serving prison sentences cannot register. The court decision came out shortly before Tuesday's midnight registration deadline, and Oviedo rushed to get on the voter rolls.

''It's such a visible and vulgar manipulation of justice on the part of President Nicanor Duarte Frutos,'' said Paraguayan political columnist Alfredo Boccia Paz. ``You'd have to be pathologically naive not to see the Colorado hand behind this.''

As Boz notes, this is an effort to split the opposition vote to keep the Colorado Party in power. I would only partially agree with him that Oviedo is a threat to “Paraguayan democracy,” as there is no such thing. We might say his political presence is a threat to the possibility of moving in a democratic direction.

In a recent academic article, Paul Sondrol analyzes Paraguay in the context of being a semi-authoritarian regime, and puts it as follows:

The evolving socio-political equation includes widespread disenchantment with a weak economy, a political class newfangled in the give and take inherent in a liberalized environment, and enduring traits reflecting the deepest authoritarian tradition in Latin America, mirrored in a narrow, cynical view of democracy by well-established political elites (p. 51).

…

An axiom attributed to Stroessner himself sums up the nefarious, semi-authoritarian philosophy: “It is necessary to foment criminality, for criminality produces complicity and complicity produces loyalty (p. 58).

That pretty much sums it up.

Paul Sondrol, “Paraguay: A Semi-Authoritarian Regime?” Armed Forces & Society, Vol. 34, No. 1 (2007): 46-66.

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Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Time flies

I can’t believe it’s that time of year again, when at the UN the entire world save Israel and 2-3 very small countries votes to condemn the U.S. embargo against Cuba. The more the U.S. tries to isolate Cuba, the more the rest of the world views Cuba with sympathy, which the Castro regime successfully milks for all its worth.

But the embargo is for your own good, since we want what's best for you. As Nick Lowe says, you gotta be cruel to be kind.

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Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Supply side

If you’d like to get a succinct view of supply side arguments about immigration and drugs, then check out Vicente Fox being interviewed by Bill O'Reilly. O’Reilly calmly explains why it’s mostly Mexico’s fault, though he does allow that the U.S. shares “some” of the blame.

My favorite quite is from O’Reilly: “The fence would help Mexico.” That is a new one.

My question: why did Vicente Fox even bother doing the interview? Something tells me most Fox News viewers aren't likely to buy his book anyway.

h/t Global Voice Online

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Monday, October 29, 2007

Blogs

I got an email from Jeb Sprague, who has a blog (PopDem) focusing largely on Latin America and Haiti, with links to other blogs he writes for that focus exclusively on Haiti, so I thought I would pass that along. His "about me" says he is a graduate student and a writer, though I don't see where he is graduate studenting (if that's a word).

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Sunday, October 28, 2007

Abuse of executive power

A few days ago I mentioned the laws being circumvented in order to build a border wall, since the REAL ID Act allows the Department of Homeland Security to bypass laws and court orders whenever it wants. Here is the official statement in the Federal Register, whereby Michael Chertoff announced the need to build 4.75 miles of wall.

SUMMARY: The Secretary of Homeland Security has determined, pursuant to law, that it is necessary to waive certain laws, regulations and other legal requirements in order to ensure the expeditious construction of physical barriers and roads in the vicinity of the international land border of the United States in Arizona.

The number of such “laws, regulations and other legal requirements” is astounding and depressing. Take a look at what the federal government is choosing to ignore:

The National Environmental Policy Act (Pub. L. 91–190, 83 Stat. 852 (Jan. 1, 1970) (42 U.S.C. 4321 et seq.)), the Endangered Species Act (Pub. L. 93–205, 87 Stat. 884 (Dec. 28, 1973) (16 U.S.C. 1531 et seq.)), the Federal Water Pollution Control Act (commonly referred to as the Clean Water Act) (Act of June 30, 1948, c. 758, 62 Stat. 1155 (33 U.S.C. 1251 et seq.)), the National Historic Preservation Act (Pub. L. 89– 665, 80 Stat. 915 (Oct. 15, 1966) (16 U.S.C. 470 et seq.)), the Migratory Bird Treaty Act (16 U.S.C. 703 et seq.), the Clean Air Act (42 U.S.C. 7401 et seq.), the Archeological Resources Protection Act (Pub. L. 96–95, 16 U.S.C. 470aa et seq.), the Safe Drinking Water Act (42 U.S.C. 300f et seq.), the Noise Control Act (42 U.S.C. 4901 et seq.), the Solid Waste Disposal Act, as amended by the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (42 U.S.C. 6901 et seq.), the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (42 U.S.C. 9601 et seq.), the Federal Land Policy and Management Act (Pub. L. 94–579, 43 U.S.C. 1701 et seq.), the Fish and Wildlife Coordination Act (Pub. L. 73–121, 48 Stat. 401, 16 U.S.C. 661 et seq.), the Archaeological and Historic Preservation Act (Pub. L. 86– 523, 16 U.S.C. 469 et seq.), the Antiquities Act (16 U.S.C. 431 et seq.), the Historic Sites, Buildings, and Antiquities Act (16 U.S.C. 461 et seq.), the Arizona-Idaho Conservation Act of 1988 (Pub. L. 100–696, 16 U.S.C. 460xx et seq.), the Wild and Scenic Rivers Act (Pub. L. 90–542, 16 U.S.C. 1281 et seq.), the Farmland Protection Policy Act (7 U.S.C. 4201 et seq.) and the Administrative Procedure Act (5 U.S.C. 551 et seq.).

h/t Bender's Immigration Bulletin

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Saturday, October 27, 2007

Follow up on Cuba speech

A follow up on Bush’s Cuba speech: the State Department forum may well have been a signal to State that it needs to accept the administration’s hard line stance.

This is nothing new. Henry Kissinger hated the people who worked at State because many of them questioned the Nixon administration’s unqualified support for dictatorships—he mocked them constantly. Over time I’ve talked to State Department staffers (mostly talking about Chilean politics) and there are many very thoughtful and intelligent people working there, i.e. they aren’t political appointees. Right now they’re being told to keep reasoned analysis to themselves and follow orders.

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Friday, October 26, 2007

U.S.-Cuban relations

The Cuban government showed about half of President Bush’s recent speech and provided extensive excerpts, which is unprecedented.

Some experts wondered whether the decision to air and print the speech was part of interim President Raul Castro's campaign to open the Cuban news media to criticism. Castro, in office since his brother Fidel fell ill 15 months ago, has allowed the media to run articles critical of the system, and also has convened neighborhood meetings to air complaints.

"I am not surprised, because there have been changes in the media which are definitely part of Raul Castro's decisions," Rafael Hernandez, editor of the political magazine Issues, said by phone from Havana. "The changes in the press are something that should have happened sooner."

Hernandez said the Cuban leadership also probably decided to run the speech so Cubans could see Bush and judge for themselves.

"I think U.S. policy is like any horror-movie monster," Hernandez said.

What a strange combination. On the one hand, Raul has widely been viewed as more pragmatic than Fidel, and therefore more open to the idea of criticism, albeit tightly controlled (as the article notes, for example, the government did not allow the airing of the names of political prisoners). This could therefore signal some type of real change, the extent of which is impossible to guess.

On the other hand, Bush’s speech and his policy in general are so poorly thought out (one part of the speech suggested radical change in Cuba, in exchange for which we’d allow religious groups to give them some computers and internet access) that the Cuban government can safely broadcast it. In other word, U.S. policy is so off the deep end that it doesn’t even require much censoring.

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Thursday, October 25, 2007

More on the Venezuelan constitutional debate

My student Kelby continues to follow the Venezuelan constitutional debate and sent me news about article 337 (part of the state of emergency proposal). The president of the National Assembly proposed adding more individual rights when a state of emergency is declared: the rights to defense, personal integrity, to be judged by “jueces naturales” (which I take to mean not automatically by an ad hoc, possibly military court) and not to be sentenced for more than 30 years (which is still a really long time!).

With any luck the Assembly will also address the lack of legislative and judicial power vis-à-vis the executive once the state of emergency is declared.

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Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Fire

This morning Matthew Shugart wrote that if he didn't post for an extended period of time, he probably had to evacuate, and he hasn't posted since this morning.

Fire has been moving roughly in the direction of my parents, who were visited by their local fire fighters. They pointed out a ridge about 4 miles away and said my parents would need to evacuate if they saw fire there. They felt there was a good amount of clear defensible space around the home, but we can only hope.

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Republicans and Latino voters

A number of times I’ve written that we shouldn’t assume Latino immigrants vote based on immigration issues, so there won’t necessarily be an exodus from the Republican Party. Given recent events, however, I’ve been pondering this more.

--Fred Thompson “called for stripping federal funds from cities and states that do not report illegal immigrants and criticized Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney for allowing so-called sanctuary cities in New York and Massachusetts.” He did this because “Party officials in key primary states said yesterday that the candidate who can win voters' trust on immigration could make significant gains.”

--RNC Chair Mel Martinez resigned the position. The Bush administration had put him there to counter the image of being anti-Latino, but Martinez supported comprehensive immigration reform and became frustrated at the anti-immigrant rhetoric of the party. “Mel Martinez was a symbol of the party's outreach to Latinos, and that seems to be disappearing," said Lionel Sosa, a longtime Republican strategist and advisor to GOP presidents since Ronald Reagan. ‘It is not a good day for Latino Republicans, that's for sure.’”

--Michael Chertoff says the administration will ignore laws potentially blocking construction of a border fence. Doesn’t matter what laws stipulate, doesn’t matter what judges say. The REAL ID Act of 2005 allows the executive branch to move forward no matter what.

The Republican Party is becoming even more anti-Latino than I anticipated, since increasingly candidates feel immigration is the only issue that gets the Republican base energized. What I really don’t know is where the tipping point might be. Many Latinos like the Republican Party for other reasons (social issues, etc.) but at what point is the rhetoric so incendiary that they a) don’t vote; or b) vote Democratic in protest?

At least at the national level, the Democratic Party is only barely more pro-immigrant (or seems more talk than action) so it’s not clear how much it would benefit. It might if Latinos either vote Democrat because it’s the least bad option, or if they’re focusing more on local issues, where I think (anecdotally) that Democrats have been more active in engaging the Latino population in a positive way.

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Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Hugo Chávez and free trade

I do think the following argument reaches an entirely new level of absurdity in U.S.-Latin American relations, which is no easy accomplishment. Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns says a free trade agreement must be ratified with Colombia. Why? For the sole reason that if it doesn't happen, Hugo Chávez will get a "public relations benefit."

"If it doesn't pass, someone like Chavez if not Chavez himself is undoubtedly going to make the argument that the United States doesn't take care of its friends," said Burns, "and we wish not to give that argument to our adversaries in the region."


So the entire issue of free trade now is based on how it affects Hugo Chávez? Debating the actual merits of the policy is, it seems, passé these days.

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Human rights in Chile

Here’s a story you don’t see every day. The Chilean government has announced an amnesty for the estimated 20,000 illegal immigrants in the country, mostly Peruvians, but also a sizeable number of Bolivians and a scattering from other countries.

We can juxtapose that with the release of a report last month on human rights from the Universidad Diego Portales. Patricio Navia has an analysis of it here, reasonably arguing that if Chile really is a democracy then it needs to take human rights more seriously than ever before. The report has eleven themed chapters: jail conditions, freedom of expression, impunity and human rights of the past, access to family courts (e.g. to deal with domestic violence), the environment, juveniles in the justice system, rights of sexual minorities, immigrants and refugees, the handicapped, and rights of the indigenous (readers may remember, for example, that Ricardo Lagos used a Pinochet-era anti-terrorism law against the Mapuche a few years ago).

These are obviously huge, long-standing problems but will serve in part to show the problems Michelle Bachelet has had in addressing them, since she has really emphasized these sorts of issues. I am awaiting the latest round of polling numbers to see if she has bottomed out yet.

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Monday, October 22, 2007

Fires

No Latin America connection, but fellow political science blogger Matthew Shugart notes the terrible fires raging in San Diego. Fortunately he was still home (and hopefully still is). Like many others who haven't yet been told to evacuate, my parents (who live in the east county, several miles from one of the fires) can only watch the wind and wait with their essential belongings ready to be packed into the car. The wind is intense, even uprooting trees in the yard. Very scary, and very hard for me to concentrate on anything else.

Update: San Diego State University literally went from holding classes in the morning to becoming a shelter by the afternoon. The fire is just moving so fast.

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Refugees in Brazil

Brazil is accepting Palestinian refugees (approximately 100 in all) displaced by the Iraq war (they had fled to Jordan). The decision is based on the 2004 Mexico Plan of Action, under the auspices of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees. Up to this point, it has focused mostly on Colombians escaping the violence there. A quote from the plan:

The Mexico Plan of Action, adopted by 20 governments, is a continent-wide framework for the protection of displaced people. By adopting the Plan, governments have committed themselves to strengthening refugee protection and implementing an integrated approach to durable solutions.


This story really deserves more attention—I had missed the original story last month when the first group arrived. This is obviously a very generous decision, and I’d be interested to learn more about how Brazil became involved—Lula is never mentioned in the articles yet he has to be central. The Arab Brazilian Chamber of Commerce discusses it a bit, but is rather short on details.

The U.S. government, which created the mess in the first place, remains mum. It may be that the refugees are subsequently cited as a potential Middle East terrorist threat in Brazil…

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Sunday, October 21, 2007

Women and politics in Latin America

McClatchy has a story about the increased political status of women in Latin American politics (which even showed up in my Charlotte Observer this morning). I was pleased to see such a story get wide coverage, since the popular impression in the U.S. of Latin America is generally so negative.

This raises interesting questions about causal relationships. In the article, a former human rights official from the Bolivian government argues that women have been making gains as a result of the governments that are focusing on the underprivileged in general, led by presidents from disadvantaged backgrounds. As I mentioned the other day, the Venezuelan constitutional reforms include gender equality. The argument makes intuitive sense if a political movement is pushing for equality—I don’t know if anyone has tested for a correlation between ideology (though even defining it can be challenging) and gender equality outcomes in Latin America.

Yet if we look at another angle, namely legislative gender quotas, the countries with quotas are all over the place ideologically. Actually, there’s an interesting UCSD working paper on Latin American quotas by Jennifer Piscopo.* Costa Rica, Argentina, Mexico, Bolivia, Peru, the Dominican Republic, Panama, Ecuador, Paraguay, Brazil, and Honduras don’t have much in common on the surface, so what commonalities can we find that help explain the outcome? Venezuela had a quota, but it was revoked in 2000, and the same was true in Colombia in 2001. Both are polar opposites ideologically, but did the same—why? Regardless, Venezuela and Nicaragua both had more female congressional representation than the U.S even without quotas, which may point (at least to some degree) to ideology. At the same time, Chile, which is less oriented toward economic equality than any other Latin American country, recently had the divorce law, elected a woman president, while the forerunner for the next election is also a woman (nonetheless, many activists are definitely unhappy with the pace of progress on women’s issues in Chile).

Much food for thought. I’ll definitely discuss this in class tomorrow.

* In fact, she is pessimistic about the impact quotas have on women’s rights generally, though I would think it might be too soon to understand fully the ways in which they transform politics and society.

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Saturday, October 20, 2007

Lake Norman 15K

This morning I ran the Lake Norman 15K, pushing my son Ben. This has become my favorite race of the year—the weather is almost always perfect (clear and comfortably cool), there’s nice scenery, and the hills aren’t too bad. Ben started getting a bit bored, but I had promised him we’d go to his favorite restaurant—IHOP—so during various parts of the run he talked about which syrups he would use in which order.

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Friday, October 19, 2007

Latin America and Islamic terrorism

Steven Taylor at Poliblog has a good discussion of the latest U.S. military claim about how Latin America is a hotbed of Islamic terrorism. He cites an article I published last year about how the U.S. suddenly found terrorism everywhere in Latin America after 9/11 and every so often we’re told there’s more. The U.S. government does a pretty good job of finding Islamic terrorists everywhere it looks (they’re smuggling nukes from Mexico across the Arizona desert, etc.).

One unfortunate result is that such talk accumulates and becomes a rationale for intervention of some kind. Another unfortunate result is that, like the boy who cried wolf, in the unlikely event there ever is a real threat no one will believe it.

Coincidentally, the CIA is honoring one of its dismally failed past efforts to intervene by hanging on oil painting depicting the Bay of Pigs invasion.

''The fact that the overall [Bay of Pigs] operation didn't achieve its objectives in no way diminishes the lasting example of courage of those who risked -- and in some cases gave -- their lives to support it,'' agency spokesman George Little said of the Bay of Pigs painting.

Titled Lobo Flight, the 40- by 30-inch painting shows a vintage B-26 twin engine bomber flown by Connie Seigrist -- the lead pilot of a convoy of B-26s painted to look like Cuban aircraft -- dropping bombs onto a column of Cuban troops heading to the beach, where a group of CIA-trained Cuban exiles had landed to attempt to overthrow Castro.

Perhaps this is part of an exhibit entitled “Ways in Which We’ve Made Our Enemies Stronger by Attacking Them.” Or maybe part of the “How Overheated Rhetoric Leads to Disastrous Invasions” series.

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Thursday, October 18, 2007

States of exception in Venezuela

Thanks to my student Kelby for sending me a copy of the additional 25 constitutional reforms proposed by the Venezuelan legislative constitutional commission. They were added after all the traveling around the country to debate the original proposed amendments, but will not be formally debated nationally themselves. Here is a link to that additional list from the Asamblea’s site. There is much to think about, as the scope of the amendments is broad.

Some seem quite good. For example, article 21 specifies equality before the law, and includes ethnicity, gender, sexual orientation, creed, social condition, and health “o aquellas que, en general, tengan por objeto o por resultado anular o menoscabar el reconocimiento, goce o ejercicio en condiciones de igualdad, de los derechos y libertades.”

The most controversial are articles 337-339, focusing on states of exception (though the definition of the military’s role also deserves attention). Here is the Spanish (apologies to those of you who don’t read Spanish—I don’t have time to translate).

Artículo 337. El Presidente o Presidenta de la República, en Consejo de Ministros, podrá decretar los estados de excepción. Se califican expresamente como tales las circunstancias de orden social, económico, político, natural o ecológico, que afecten gravemente la seguridad de la Nación, de las instituciones y de los ciudadanos y ciudadanas, a cuyo respecto resultan insuficientes las facultades de las cuales se disponen para hacer frente a tales hechos. En tal caso, podrán ser restringidas o suspendidas temporalmente las garantías consagradas en esta Constitución, salvo las referidas al derecho a la vida, la prohibición de tortura, incomunicación y la desaparición forzosa.

Artículo 338. Podrá decretarse el estado de alarma cuando se produzcan catástrofes, calamidades públicas u otros acontecimientos similares que pongan seriamente en peligro la seguridad de la Nación o de sus ciudadanos y ciudadanas. Podrá decretarse el estado de emergencia económica cuando se susciten circunstancias económicas extraordinarias que afecten gravemente la vida económica de la Nación.

Podrá decretarse el estado de conmoción interior o exterior en caso de conflicto interno o externo, que ponga seriamente en peligro la seguridad de la Nación, de sus ciudadanos y ciudadanas, o de sus instituciones.

Los estados de alarma, de emergencia económica y de conmoción interior o exterior, durarán mientras se mantengan las causas que los motivaron.

Artículo 339. El decreto que declare el estado de excepción, en el cual se regulará el ejercicio del derecho cuya garantía se restringe o suspende, será presentado, dentro de los ocho días siguientes de haberse dictado, a la Asamblea Nacional, o a la Comisión Delegada, para su consideración y aprobación. Al cesar las causas que lo motivaron, el Presidente o Presidenta de la República dejará sin efecto la medida adoptada.

La declaración del estado de excepción no interrumpe el funcionamiento de los órganos del Poder Público.

This is building on a long-standing Latin American political tradition of states of exception (the 1999 Venezuelan constitution as currently worded also includes it, with a 60 day limit). One problem, of course, is defining “national security,” which has been abused so often in Latin America and elsewhere (including, of course, the United States). Further, although the president would need congressional approval for the decree within eight days, after that it would be up to the president alone to decide when to end it. This sort of thing should not be a part of a democracy, no matter what you think of your enemies (or how much your enemies hate you).

Because of its controversial nature, this will be debated in the entire legislature. Assuming it won’t be removed, at the very least there should be:

1) more legislative oversight, including authority over when the state of exception is lifted, and with specific (and very short) time limits that must be constantly approved by the legislature and defended publicly (the 1999 constitution allows the legislature to end it)

2) a role for the judiciary (the 1999 constitution requires the decree to be declared constitutional)

3) a specification of the votes necessary to get initial approval (e.g. a supermajority)

4) more restrictions on what can’t be done to people (the 1999 constitution has more)

5) very specific mention that the legislature and judiciary will continue to function during this time (and not just “los órganos del Poder Público,” which is vague, unless it has a specific legal meaning I am not aware of)

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Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Corruption in Mexico

A recent poll reveals that 70% of Mexico City residents believe that a new anti-smoking law is just a way for authorities to shake more people down. They figure that everyone knows it will be impossible to enforce, so there is no other rationale for its passage. They also believe that new regulations about driver’s licenses will have the same effect.

I haven’t studied corruption in detail, and I wonder if anyone has done work on laws being passed almost entirely to facilitate bribery (there have, for example, been studies of how citizens accept corruption if they also benefit). It’s common for public officials to pass laws that enrich them, but this is more indirect. At the very least, it is a strong indicator of low regard for legislators, as people assume that a law ostensibly aimed at public health is simply corrupt.

This also leads me to wonder about how people feel about their local legislators in federal systems. This story is about the Mexico City legislature, not the national one. We see presidential approval ratings all the time, but not much about legislatures, and never anything on the local level. Many presidents (including Calderón) are very popular, but what about other elected officials?

On a side note, Transparency International’s 2007 corruption perception index has Mexico tied at 72 (along with Brazil, China, Peru and a few others) a drop of two spots since 2006.

h/t Héctor Tobar at La Plaza

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