Tuesday, May 07, 2013

Shaky Growth in Latin America

I am a broken record, as I've written this kind of post many times before. The IMF says that Latin America will go from 3% growth in 2012 to 3.5% growth in 2013. That seems good, and no one can complain about growth. But how much of it is pure dependence on remittances and demand for commodities? A lot.

In other words, Latin American growth is highly dependent on two things: emigrants finding jobs in the United States, and China sucking up all the raw materials it can find.

The report suggests prudently that countries with a lot of energy exports start saving commodity revenues. That's good advice but ignores the broader structural issue, which is the inability to break out of the traditional development model.


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