Photo of the day

Don't mess with me when I want to cross home plate.

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Immigration myths on cable TV

Check out Media Matters Action Network for a very cool article on the ways in which cable commentators—specifically Lou Dobbs, Bill O’Reilly, and Glenn Beck—use their bully pulpits to spread myths about immigration: “cable news overflows not just with vitriol, but also with a series of myths that feed viewers' resentment and fears, seemingly geared toward creating anti-immigrant hysteria.”

Reading it will seriously curdle your liver. It focuses on specific myths: that immigrants commit more crimes; that there is a plot to create a NAFTA Superhighway that will destroy the country by leading to a North American Union; that Mexicans have a Reconquista plot to take back what was lost in 1848; that undocumented immigrants commit massive voter fraud; and that undocumented immigrants are spreading leprosy.

You just have to read the quotes from these shows, which are shocking in their intentional spread of false information and xenophobia. Obviously, I knew people like Lou Dobbs were focusing on immigration, but the actual things they say are mind blowing.

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Call off the referendum?

Apparently both members of the MAS and the opposition are having second thoughts about the August 10 recall referendum, saying that it won't resolve Bolivia's political crisis. In fact, they are talking openly about suspending it if they can come to some sort of accord.

That might actually be the best of all possible scenarios. The referendum would be the spark for substantive talks, and the country could avoid what would have to be very acrimonious campaigns for the next several months.

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Double dipping in Political Science

Inside Higher Ed brings up the issue of “double dipping” conference papers, referring to the practice of presenting the same paper (or at least a revised version) at two conferences. PS: Political Science & Politics, which is the “state of the discipline” journal for Political Science, published a series of articles on the topic in its last issue.

The main criticism seems to be that it pads a person’s CV, making it look like they wrote two papers rather than one:

Do those who fill résumés in this way gain an unfair edge over those who give fewer (but perhaps more original) papers?

The answer is a resounding “no” because it is based on the idea that conference papers are an important part of getting hired or even receiving merit pay. In Political Science, as in much of academia, what matters are refereed journal articles (or book chapters) not conference papers. As a member of a hiring committee, I am largely uninterested in your conference papers except to the extent that they became articles. If you present a paper twice and get it published then you are succeeding. The hiring committee (or at least all the ones I’ve been on) looks at the single publication, not really at the two conference papers that led to it.

In some ways, padding the conference paper section of your CV with multiple papers can be negative if you don’t have many publications. What it suggests is that you’re not translating your papers into articles.

And if you’re wondering, yes, I have double dipped.

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So what's Fidel thinking these days?

Fidel apparently did not like the EU-LAC summit (here is the English version of his column in Granma). As with many of his columns, we have to follow him around a bit, from his childhood, to ancient Greece, and henceforth to Francis Fukuyama and Little Red Riding Hood. Mostly, he excoriates Europe for being imperialist:

That Europe shares with the United States extraterritorial legislation which, in violation of the sovereignty of their own territories, is increasing the blockade against Cuba by blocking the supply of technologies, components and even medicines to our country. Its publicity media is associated with the empire’s media power.

Also, the Spanish delegation was a bunch of hypocritical capitalist gluttonous drunks:

The banquet was coming. There would not be any food crisis on the table. The proteins and liquors would be flowing free.

Someday, it will be fascinating to learn—if we ever can—about the dynamics of this quasi-post-Fidel period. In a way, it’s like a good-cop, bad-cop scene, with Fidel talking tough and Raúl reaching out. Maybe it’s entirely orchestrated, maybe it just reflects their current views, or some combination.

Meanwhile, the head of the U.S. Interest Section is walking around with envelopes of cash for Castro opponents. It is, of course, only “humanitarian assistance” and has “no political purpose.” That is true if we define “no political purpose” as “hope to destroy the regime that we’ve hated since Eisenhower.”

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FAQs: INTERPOL and the laptops

I finally had time to go through INTERPOL’s report on the FARC laptops. Although the entire document is 102 pages, the meat of it is only the first 39 pages, and is followed by appendices with photos of the laptops, thumb drives, copies of letters requesting INTERPOL’s help, etc.

Given all the questions floating around, I thought I would do a list of FAQs based on the report.

Did the Colombian government tamper with the files?

No. Much has been made about the fact that the Colombian government “did not conform to internationally recognized principles for the ordinary handling of electronic evidence by law enforcement.” All this means, however, is that they accessed the data directly and did not make “write-protected images of all eight seized exhibits” (p. 8).

Further, “INTERPOL found no evidence that user files were created, modified or deleted on any of the eight seized FARC computer exhibits following their seizure on 1 March 2008 by Colombian authorities” (p. 33).

Did INTERPOL verify the authenticity of the documents?

No. “The verification of the eight seized FARC computer exhibits by INTERPOL does not imply the validation of the accuracy of the user files, the validation of any country’s interpretation of the user files or the validation of the source of the user files” (p. 9).

This will definitely be the central point for those who argue that the documents are fake or doctored, and were created by the Colombian and/or U.S. governments.

As Adam Isacson points out in a good post, even authentic documents reflect the biases, goals, etc. of the writers, which may not make for reliable versions of events. It depends on the document in question.

Why do some documents have a time stamp of 2009?

“Based on analysis of the characteristics of these files, INTERPOL’s experts concluded that these files were originally created prior to 1 March 2008 on a device or devices with incorrect system time settings. The appearance of these files on exhibits 30 and 31 indicates that they were either created while the exhibits were connected to a device with incorrect system time settings or the files were later transferred – after their initial creation – to exhibits 30 and 31 and the 2009 timestamps were transferred with the files” (p. 33).

What does that mean for understanding when certain documents were created?

“Based on the above, INTERPOL’s experts concluded that Colombian authorities should not rely on the time stamping of the files with future dates in these three exhibits (28, 30 and 31)” (p. 34).

So no one knows when those particular documents were created, and in general it calls into question the ability to create precise timelines with any of the documents.

Where did the analysis take place and who did it?

The actual analysis of the data took place in Southeast Asia and was conducted by technicians from Australia and Singapore who did not understand Spanish.

How much data is there?

“In non-technical terms, the volume of 609.6 gigabytes of data would correspond to 39.5 million filled pages in Microsoft Word and, if all of the seized data were in Word format, it would take more than 1,000 years to read it all, at a rate of 100 pages per day.” (p. 26). Quite a few, though, are just normal things anyone has on their computer (e.g. Microsoft Office programs).

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Damage control

Hugo Chávez gave an interview to a group of American newspaper editors. Given the controversy swirling around him, this is a good move. Naturally, one of the topics was the U.S. presidential election:

Of the American presidential candidates, Chavez said, "It would be a lie to say I have no preference." But "I shouldn't say anything that would be used against someone."

Whoever is elected, Chavez wants to start immediate exchanges. "It is through talking that we can then come closer and share and compare our views and then reach an agreement."

If he is serious about that, then he needs to give Obama (because there will be no rapprochement with McCain, and certainly Chávez knows that) the ability to reciprocate, which means toning down the insults. Of course, this will also depend on the tone set by whomever Obama would pick for the key Latin America positions (even just the issue of not lumping Venezuela together with dictatorships, as Hillary Clinton has done).

Anyhow, he speaks his mind candidly and calmly. We could use more of that.

Also, he's got a button under his desk, and when he pushes it someone appears with a fresh cup of coffee. I want one of those.

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Mérida Initiative portal

The Woodrow Wilson Center's Mexico Institute has put up a portal on the Mérida Initiative. It is well worth a look. There are all kinds of documents and statements by politicians, academics, and a variety of analysts. For example, Roderic Camp, who is the expert on the Mexican military, has this to say:

The relationship or potential relationship between the two militaries, and the Mexican military’s enhanced role in its anti-drug trafficking mission, has actual, potential and perceived consequences on civil-military relations and on democratic consolidation. These have been summed up as blurring the lines between appropriate and inappropriate domains for professional actions; expanding the managerial roles played by the military in society; increasing the influence of military intelligence operations; and enhancing the role military officers play in national politics and decision-making.

There are also links to the original legislation, briefings, testimonies, and the like.


h/t La Plaza

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Importing Mexican police

Now this is a disturbing story from the Dallas Morning News:

Drug cartel attacks against Mexican police have become so violent and so common that some Mexican police chiefs are seeking safety in the United States.

Faced with cartel-sponsored assassinations that have claimed the lives of more than 25 officers since the start of May – including that of Edgar Millán Gómez, head of the federal police – and threats of further retaliation, some Mexican police are quitting their posts.

But three times in recent months, leaders of Mexican police have gone further, arriving at U.S. border crossings and applying for political asylum out of fear for their lives, according to Jayson Ahern, deputy commissioner of Customs and Border Protection.

Asylum is intended for those facing a “well-founded fear of persecution.” The U.S. government currently grants asylum to few Latin Americans, and I doubt this type of case will meet the standard.

The article does a good job of lining up the two main responses to such a development. First, you can argue that it underscores the need for the Merida Initiative (aka Plan Mexico). Second, you can argue that it shows how Mexican law enforcement is not equipped to deal with the huge influx of aid/weapons that the plan would generate. The quotes from members of Congress, however, were the opposite of what I would normally expect, because a Republican said the U.S. should not send military aid, while a Democrat said it should. At this point, I have to wonder what will happen if the country is flooded with new weapons.

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Interpol and the laptop

Interpol says the infamous laptop was not tampered with.

The drives contained a vast trove of information — 610 gigabytes of data including 210,888 images, 37,872 written documents, 22,481 Web pages, 10,537 sound and video files, 7,989 email addresses and 452 spreadsheets, Interpol said.

The Venezuelan government says that the Venezuelan people, "in their infinite wisdom," will assert that the charges connecting Chávez to the FARC are false. That is not the same as saying the documents are fake. At this point I will most interested to see Chávez's reaction--will it be that all the files are fake (meaning that Interpol is either wrong or lying) or that perhaps they are real but are being misinterpreted? Or are there other options?

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CFR report on U.S.-Latin American relations

The Council on Foreign Relations has released a new study entitled, “U.S.-Latin American Relations: A New Direction for a New Reality.” It has a lot of sensible ideas, which probably means many in the U.S. will view it as crazy and/or radical. It’s a long document, and I am just highlighting some selected issues:

The Task Force finds that the issues of persistent poverty and income inequality must be better targeted by U.S. policymakers beyond the largely traditional reliance on trade and democratization alone.

The document explicitly questions the assertion that trade and market reforms reduce poverty, and calls for U.S. assistance with homegrown solutions.

The Task Force finds that the drug trade flourishes from a volatile combination of negative socioeconomic conditions in producing and trafficking countries coupled with high demand for narcotics in the United States and Europe, and increasingly in Latin America itself.

And, combined with the above assertion, comes the idea that the solution to drug trafficking is not simply more market-oriented reform.

The Task Force finds that comprehensive immigration reform is necessary to create a system that better meets U.S. security, economic, and foreign policy interests, and must be a priority for the next administration.

This is absolutely true.

While recognizing the political challenges and the importance of multilateral solutions, the Task Force recommends that the next administration proactively support the liberalization of textile and agricultural policies, including reducing and eventually eliminating tariffs and subsidies on agricultural commodities, including tariffs on ethanol, and relaxing rules of origin requirements on textiles.

In other words, if the U.S. wants to push market reforms, it needs to do so at home as well. Talk, meet walk. I do not agree with their overall idea that the state should get out of the way in all areas of the economy (in the U.S. as well as in Latin America) but it is hypocritical to push neoliberal solutions abroad when we do not follow them at home.

The Task Force finds that the United States must officially recognize all countries in the region and should work to identify areas of common interest and cooperation in order to advance U.S. interests, regardless of the countries’ political identity; this includes Cuba and Venezuela.

The sad thing is that so many people consider this radical.

There’s plenty more, so everyone can take a look and decide for themselves.

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It's like a hobby

I keep finding Republicans who think the embargo against Cuba is a bad idea, and it’s starting to feel like a collection. Some people collect stamps; I collect anti-embargo Republicans. My last one was George Will, and now via The Havana Note we have Brent Scowcroft:

My answer on Cuba is Cuba is not a foreign policy question.

Cuba is a domestic issue.

In foreign policy, the embargo makes no sense.

It doesn't do anything.

It's quite clear we can not starve Cuba to death.

We learned that when the Soviet stopped subsidizing Cuba and they didn't collapse.

It's a domestic issue.

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Bolivia's referendum is set

Bolivia’s referendum is now set for August 10. I posted about this a few days ago, and thought I would raise some questions based on that.

First, it’s important to see how approval correlates to a “yes” vote for Evo Morales. I am sure we’ll be seeing some polls soon. As I mentioned before, strong rural voter mobilization could make an important difference, especially since that population is less represented in approval rating polls anyway.

Second, in comments Miguel raised the point about Morales’ declining approval. For an August vote, will we see a continued decline in the next three months? Will that correlate to a greater “no” vote? This raises the question of whether he currently has an approval floor below which he likely won’t fall (or, regardless of such a floor, how fast he would continue to fall).

Third, knowing that a vote against Morales simply means another election (as opposed to him being kicked out of office forever) will people on the fence decide to vote against him just to send a message? One disincentive for that strategy is concern over whether such a loss would spark violence.

Fourth, how much will violence--by both sides--mark the next three months in anticipation of the vote?

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The latest Hitler reference

I don't think there's any historical figure more used as an insult than Adolf Hitler. Back in 2006, Donald Rumsfeld compared Hugo Chávez to Hitler. Now Chávez has compared German Chancellor Angela Merkel's party to Hitler's fascism. This is because she had said things like:

"Based on our experience in Europe, I don't believe that state-guided economies can provide a better or more sustainable response to such pressing problems."

Chávez then indicated he would stop insulting her because she was a "lady." Classy.

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Border wall

Link

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Why the Bush Administration thinks an FTA is bad for Colombia

I’ve written several times about the U.S.-Colombia FTA and am not looking for overkill, but President Bush gave another speech while an administration official wrote in the State Department’s blog, and their logic prompts me to write again.

We’ve been told, in no uncertain terms, that failure to pass the FTA is a slap in Colombia’s face, as the Uribe government has been a close ally. Colombia, we are told, really needs this FTA to promote both economic prosperity and security. Much is at stake.

If that is the case, shouldn’t we expect to hear that the FTA actually benefits Colombia? From Bush’s speech:

Today almost all of Colombia's exports enter the United States duty-free. Yet American products exported to Colombia face tariffs of up to 35 percent for non-agricultural goods, and much higher for many agricultural products. Think about that. They export into the United States duty-free, and we don't have the same advantage. I would call that a one-sided economic agreement.

So the POTUS himself is saying that this FTA is good because it reduces Colombia’s advantage. How, then, does that promote Colombian prosperity? The status quo is currently one-sided in favor of Colombia.

Now, from Charles S. Shapiro, the Senior Coordinator of the State Department’s Western Hemisphere Affairs Free Trade Task Force:

The cup of Colombian coffee that I had this morning, the roses that I’m going to send to my mother for Mother’s Day along with the box of chocolates all come from Colombia into the United States, tariff free. American exporters on the other hand, pay high tariffs to send products such as machinery and fertilizers to Colombia that help produce these goods. Every day that we wait to pass the Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement (CTPA) is a day that American farmers, businesses and workers lose out. Free trade will benefit both of us.

If Colombia benefits now, and the U.S. doesn’t, then how does an FTA benefit both of us? Right now, Colombia has access but also protection of domestic industry, and an FTA gets rid of the latter.

If I were an advocate for the FTA, I would argue that the benefit derives from not having to deal with the constant vote wrangling associated with the Andean Trade Promotion and Drug Eradication Act, which offers all those nice benefits but always faces some degree of congressional skepticism. That skepticism is enhanced when Colombia is lumped in with Bolivia and Ecuador. Why, then, does the administration never even mention this dynamic?

All this, I believe, helps us understand the Bush administration’s enduring problems with Latin America. It cannot even construct a coherent argument in favor of its own allies.

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Bolivia recall

In December 2007, Evo Morales proposed a recall referendum for himself and the nine prefects and in March a government spokesperson repeated the possibility—I kept asking about it but, as the AP notes, it never progressed from there. Now the Bolivian Senate has passed a bill calling for a referendum within 90 days, and Morales has said he’ll sign it.

The measure would require Morales and Bolivia's nine state governors to win both more votes and a greater percentage of support than they did on a 2005 ballot. If they fall short, they will have to run again in a new general election.

Bolivian state governors did not immediately react to the president's announcement, but most have previously said they would participate in such a vote.

Morales won 1,544,374 votes and 53.7% in the 2005 presidential election, so will have to surpass those numbers. The AP article also correctly notes that his popularity remains over 50% (last poll was 54%) despite the fact that polls center on urban areas, and there is no doubt that the government will mobilize the rural electorate. Of course, a lot can happen in 90 days, but at this point his position is solid. A win would legitimize his presidency even further and improve his bargaining position vis-à-vis the regional autonomy movements.

See also Boz and Miguel.

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Arresting self-deportees

The idea behind more immigration enforcement is to encourage undocumented immigrants to return to their country of origin. Now U.S. Customs and Border Protection officers are setting up shop right on the border at San Diego and arresting people who are trying to get back to Mexico.

In other words, such individuals are mere minutes from deporting themselves, but the U.S. government wants to spend tons of money to do it instead.

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U.S.-Panama FTA

President Bush met with Panamanian President Martín Torrijos to launch his effort to get a U.S.-Panama FTA ratified. One of the major roadblocks has now been removed, as Pedro Miguel Gonzalez, the speaker of Panama’s National Assembly who the U.S. government accuses of murdering an American soldier, announced he would not seek re-election.

This means that there are no major problems with the deal, but questions remain about whether it will be approved.

--If political capital is required to push some recalcitrant members of Congress, does Bush have any at all? In a statement he said the administration would do “everything in our capacity” to get it passed, but there’s just not much capacity left.

--The South Korea FTA will take center stage, so will it push debate on Panama too far back to get passed before Bush leaves office?

--Will the administration push the Colombia FTA again, thus pushing the Panama deal back?

--Will the Democratic Party be so focused on swing states in a presidential election in the midst of a recession that it will be unwilling to pass free trade this year? It will be hard to argue that the Panama FTA will matter much economically, but it is a matter of perception.

For anyone interested, here is the link to the USTR’s info page on the Panama FTA.

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Note to presidential candidates

I don't have a particularly strong opinion about robo-calls, but I do find them highly annoying when they last about two full minutes and consist largely of saying "please, please vote" several times. I let the machine get it, figuring it would be quick, but eventually I started saying out loud, "Please stop talking." This does not reflect well on Obama.

UPDATE: Hillary called only about 10 minutes later, but her message was mercifully short.

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Voted

Despite my best intentions, I never got around to early voting, so Amy and I went and voted this morning. Polls are all over the place, from a 4 point Obama lead to a 14 point lead.

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The four most influentialish Latin Americans of 2008

Time Magazine has released its 2008 list of the 100 most influential people, so I couldn’t resist checking out the Latin America connection—the total is four. Either Hugo Chávez or Lula really should be vying for the first Latin American on the list, but neither makes it anywhere.

So what they really have is the “most influentialish” list. These are Latin Americans who will not offend a U.S. audience, and make us feel good that we stick them on a list.

Michelle Bachelet was 15^th, and her snippet was written by Hillary Clinton (“Count me among the inspired”). She frankly just isn’t that influential, even within Chile. And really, does she want Hillary singing her praises? Anyhow, very influentialish.

Evo Morales was 18^th, and his comments were written by Joseph Stiglitz (“The bureaucrats have dug in their heels, and the country's élites hate his populist rhetoric and close ties to Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chávez. But Morales remains popular with his people”). In terms of anti-neoliberal reform, Chávez is clearly more influential. But Morales’ anti-U.S. comments are rarely translated into English, so Time can safely put him there and no one is the wiser.

Yoani Sánchez (a Cuban blogger) is 31^st and written up by novelist Oscar Hijuelos (“With a feisty dedication to the truth, Yoani Sánchez's activities bode well for the future of her country”). I am very sympathetic to ground level critics of the Castro regime, but I am not sure of her “influence.” They even list her behind Andre Agassi, whose influence escapes me completely. But c’mon, we need an anti-Castro person on the list, and Jorge Mas Canosa is dead.

Carlos Slim is 95^th and heralded by Alvin Toffler (“Even a superbillionaire can love and honor his spouse, treat women with respect, pursue wide-ranging intellectual interests and, in his own quiet way, support social reform”). As we all know, we feel good when we believe that the fabulously rich really care about social reform. In terms of helping the poor, Slim is definitely influentialish.

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Correa's secret documents

Rafael Correa says he has classified documents showing his plans to combat the FARC's presence in Ecuador. He will release them next week and says they will show how Alvaro Uribe is lying about Correa's relationship with the FARC. Since Interpol should be releasing its report on the infamous laptop, this situation could come to a boil again soon.

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Cementing a relationship Part 2

Last month I mentioned following the negotiations between the Venezuelan government and foreign cement companies, as the calls for nationalization had been contradictory. After having written about all the threats the government had been making, I thought it would be interesting to see how the threats eventually moved toward action. The government says it does not rule out the possibility of taking 100% control, as opposed to 60%, but nothing has yet been settled.

This raises the question of how precisely to define “nationalization,” which normally refers to a government taking complete control of at least some parts of an industry from private interests. To me, it seems odd to use the term “nationalization” in the case of joint ownership where private companies continue to make a profit along with the government. It is really more of a “forced joint venture.” In the case of cement, these actions are being taken only against foreign companies, so the cement industry per se is not being nationalized (though the vast majority of it was foreign owned).

This is not a trivial distinction. Concern about nationalization can discourage foreign investment, but I wonder whether the possibility of simply getting less profit has the same effect.

There is also the question of how companies respond during the negotiation process. There are currently rumors of a cement shortage, which the government is denying. The uncertainty is disruptive, so the government has a strong incentive to seal the deal as quickly as possible.

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Ending dictatorships

Jack Chang from McClatchy writes about Argentine Dirty War witnesses who are kidnapped and sometimes murdered to prevent their testimony—fortunately the most recent witness reappeared. I had also just read that Manuel Contreras, the infamous head of Chile’s secret police (the DINA) was in the hospital with kidney problems. He’s 78.

These two things came together in my mind in terms of how long it takes for the trauma of a brutal dictatorship to fade. There is a lot of great work done on memory (see Steve Stern’s trilogy on memory in Chile, for example) but less about the generational nature of such trauma. When, for example, did the Spanish civil war and the Franco dictatorship really “end”? Does it require that the protagonists all die?

I don’t mean that it becomes irrelevant, because people do remember, memorials have been erected, books have been written, etc. But it is truly frightening that in 2008, people can be kidnapped or killed to protect members of a dictatorship that ended in 1983. No matter how we specifically define the “end,” in Argentina it has not been fully reached. Chile is closer, but the dictatorship does still loom there (however, the transition from authoritarian rule occurred seven years later than in Argentina).

Hard to say. Indeed, a UNC Charlotte colleague in History, David Goldfield, recently published a book about how the U.S. civil war still isn’t over for some southerners. And that “ended” 143 years ago.

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Country Reports on Terrorism 2008

The State Department just released this year's report on terrorism, and after all the speculation Venezuela was not labeled a state sponsor (see here for my previous poll, where only 1/3 thought it would not be, though others believed it will be next year). Ecuador received praise, while Bolivia "showed new potential as a possible site for terrorist activity" because a number of terrorist groups "were thought to be present" there. That is the worst type of passive tense, similar to "it is argued" because it is attributed to no one.

Back to Venezuela, the State Department admitted it had no hard evidence: "It remained unclear to what extent the Venezuelan government provided support to Colombian terrorist organizations." However, the entire thing was not worded as strongly as I expected. Perhaps the State Department understood that such wording would immediately be used to Chávez's benefit.

In short, nothing much has changed. Cuba is still on the list because, well, we always put Cuba on the list.

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Border Patrol

Those who advocate an enforcement-only approach to undocumented immigration usually cite the need for more Border Patrol agents. Now the chief of the U.S. Border Patrol's El Paso Sector says the country needs broader reform, and not just agents.

Chief Patrol Agent Victor Manjarrez Jr. said that without comprehensive immigration reform, border agents continue to split their attention between "economic migrants," criminals and potential terrorists.

"Most of these people are economic migrants but we have to deal with them between the ports of entry because we have not, in terms of a legislative fix, determined what we do with these people," Manjarrez said.

"I think it's pretty obvious that the country has a need for economic migrants. To what degree, I don't know. That's for the country to decide and for the politicians to decide."

It is unusual for someone in the Border Patrol to speak about the political aspects of immigration, or at least I have rarely read these sorts of comments. His main point is that their job is to fight terrorism, and arresting people who just want jobs actually hurts the country’s security:

"Our primary mission changed from our traditional focus. Our primary mission now is terrorists and weapons of mass destruction. That's what we should be focused on. We can't focus on that as much as we would like because of all the other issues that we deal with."

That argument has been made before, but perhaps it will start gaining more traction. It is remarkable how many resources we use to address economic migration, believing that we can stop it.

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Uribe and a third term Part 2

I've done several posts on Uribe's likely push for a third term (here is the last one). Now in an interview Andres Oppenheimer tried to pin him down on the issue, and he refused to answer directly, but his answers (just as past statements) strongly suggested he would.

I told him that I have seen many popular former Latin American presidents, such as Argentina's Carlos Menem and Peru's Alberto Fujimori, lose their way as they got blinded by power. They sought third terms in office, and they ended badly.

''Don't worry,'' Uribe said, indicating that it wouldn't happen to him. Comparing himself to a peasant who is used to many hardships and rough roads, he said that ``a hard-working peasant can resist a long and abrupt road without losing his way.''

The guy is from a wealthy family and went to Harvard. Calling himself a peasant is very much like George W. Bush cultivating an image of a simple Texan. But the thing is, Bush is actually stepping down after two terms...

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Primaries in Charlotte

The campaigns in NC are all over the place now. We’ve received about three robo-calls from each side, though Obama himself wasn't in any of them (his wife was in one, and others were just staff members).

Governor Mike Easley has now endorsed Clinton, but since he’s a largely invisible governor and I am willing to bet many voters (especially newly registered ones, of which there are many in the state) have never heard of him, I can’t see that mattering very much. She needs a boost, as a recent poll has her behind 52%-42% (with 4% unsure and 2% other, and a 4% margin of error).

Early voting has already begun here, and I had planned to go yesterday. With the baby’s arrival that did not happen…

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Elizabeth and me

My daughter Elizabeth was born this morning at 8:18. She and Amy are both perfectly happy and healthy--it could not have gone more smoothly (especially since she is our third, it also happened pretty fast).

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U.S. policy toward Ecuador

The L.A. Times offers up a solid editorial on U.S. policy toward Ecuador, counseling “respectful engagement, not Cold War bluster.” It also brings up an issue I had just discussed in my U.S.-Latin American Relations class on Wed., namely the importance of distinguishing between nationalism and hostility toward the U.S. government. For example, the Manta base in Ecuador is unpopular, and other presidential candidates similarly called for its closure. Yet when Correa moves ahead with it, the U.S. frames the decision as an ideological move that puts Correa in league with Chávez.

This is an age-old problem. During the Cold War, the U.S. was all too often blind to domestic realities, so nationalists were most often labeled either communists or dupes of communists. The unfortunate result is that we made (and continue to make) enemies of people who need not be so.

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Prize money

The Cato Institute has decided to give $500,000 to Venezuelan student activist Yon Goicoechea for the “Milton Friedman Prize for Advancing Liberty.” Think tanks are certainly free to give their money to whomever they wish, but my immediate reaction was that this prize could permanently derail his political career and end up having the opposite effect the Cato Institute and others who hate Chávez want.

In Venezuela and in the international media, from now on he will be known as the “guy who is having money funneled to him from the U.S.” He wants to create a foundation to train young people who want to go into politics, and that foundation will also be labeled as the “foundation created with U.S. money to attack Chávez.”

His response:

''The government already says we're financed by the CIA. It already says we're paid by the empire. So if they say it one more time, it really isn't that important,'' he said.

True, but the real effect will be on Venezuelans, not just the government. Even Venezuelans who aren’t enamored of Chávez won’t necessarily be so happy to follow a young leader whose activities are all openly funded with U.S. money.

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Correa and the military in Ecuador Part 2

So what’s a good strategy once you’ve really challenged the armed forces and fired the leadership? Buy them lots of new stuff.

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Military legacies in Chile

The Chilean Congress is starting to debate the removal of military representatives from the National Television Council, which itself is a product of the latter part of the Pinochet government and was meant to act as a television moral watchdog. Three things come to mind.

First, this is a matter of very low salience to the armed forces so I'd be surprised if they offer any resistance.

Second, to my knowledge over the past 18 years the military has made no effort to affect any decision the organization has made (I wonder if officers even attend regularly) but it is the type of law that could easily be abused under certain circumstances. Every country, but especially those with dictatorship-era laws still on the books, should do the equivalent of a computer virus scan to make sure all obscure and potentially nasty laws are discovered and removed.

Third, it is really absurd that it took 18 years to do this. Better late than never.

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Right on time?

There are reports that more Cubans have been leaving the island since Fidel stepped aside. At the same time, there are rumors that the Cuban government is going to lift requirements for citizens to receive exits visas.

The timing is notable, because this has happened every 14-15 years. Fidel has used refugees three different times—1965, 1980, and 1994—as a way to deal with his own internal problems and to affect U.S. policy (a “weapon of the weak”). There’s a recent article that analyzes the 1994 balseros crisis, putting it into historical perspective.*

It remains to be seen if the same is occurring now, but in the past it has begun with a signal that an exodus may occur, which is expected to prompt dialogue between the two countries on certain issues (in 1994 it was mostly immigration policy but normalization of relations is always an accompanying goal). If dialogue is rejected, then the exodus occurs, and the dialogue happens anyway but in the context of crisis, which a U.S. president must address quickly or be hurt domestically:

“[T]he appearance of loss of control over US borders, coupled with the perception inside the US that Floria might be overrun, would be viewed by US leaders as politically costlier than the alternative of dealing with him. Thus if Castro could transform his own domestic problems into the US’s problems via exploitation of refugees, he could coerce its leaders into helping him solve them” (p. 48).

One difference from the past is that there is no defiant speech, which was Fidel’s way of signalling. If a similar situation is happening, then this may just reflect a different strategy, because Raúl doesn’t make fiery speeches.

*Kelly M. Greenhill, “Engineered Migration and the Use of Refugees as Political Weapons: A Case Study of the 1994 Cuban Balseros Crisis,” International Migration 40, 4 (September 2006): 133-164.

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Paraguayan presidential election

If you follow Latin American politics at all, then you know that Fernando Lugo won the Paraguayan presidential election with 41% of the vote (no runoff required) thus ending over six decades of Colorado Party rule. It is certainly nice to see that party (like the PRI) finally allow competitive elections.

President Duarte was gracious, perhaps more than you might expect given the heated campaign rhetoric against Lugo:

Sitting President Nicanor Duarte hailed the democratic process: "For the first time in our history, one party will transfer power to another without a coup, without bloodshed and without fighting among brothers," he told a news conference.

True enough.

However, there were also legislative elections, which include all 45 members of the Senate and all 80 members of the House of Deputies (both use proportional representation, with five year terms). The Colorado Party had a plurality in both from the 2003 elections.

I haven’t seen the results of yesterday’s elections, which are obviously very important for understanding how much Lugo can do. (This is the government’s official site for results, which up to this point only shows the presidential race). Remember that once the PRI lost the presidency, it worked successfully to block presidential initiatives in the legislature.

It will be also be interesting to see how he addresses regional issues, such as Venezuela’s entrance into Mercosur (which is being held up in the Paraguayan and Brazilian legislatures) and the U.S. obsession with the Triborder Area. As far as I can tell, no one in the U.S. government has yet said anything about the election. Lugo seems quite moderate but expect media attention about “leftists,” “pink tide,” etc. to lump him together with all other Latin American leaders who aren’t conservative.

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Laws are just nuisances anyway

I ran across this political cartoon, which addresses the problem of the Bush Administration voiding laws it doesn't like in order to build a border wall.

There is now a suit to end that process, arguing that it is unconstitutional. But you have to read this to believe it:

The Defenders of Wildlife and the Sierra Club first brought the suit against the Bureau of Land Management, challenging the legality of border fence construction in the San Pedro Riparian National Conservation Area in Arizona.

Though they eventually lost the case, the environmental groups won a restraining order from Huvelle in October 2007 that temporarily stopped border wall construction and instructed DHS to investigate the local environmental impacts of the project.

Chertoff responded by using the waiver authority; in November, he circumvented the restraining order by waiving 19 federal statutes. He followed that up this month by authorizing two waivers — involving some 30 laws — in order to complete construction of the fence and other protective measures in California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas.

In other words, if you don't like a restraining order, then you waive federal law so you can ignore it. I am tempted to use the cliché that it "boggles the mind" but in fact with the administration my mind cannot be boggled any further.

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Writing book proposals

Notorious Ph.D. offers some good advice about writing book proposals. I've reviewed a number of pretty bad ones, and so her emphasis on clarity--which seems obvious but is too often neglected--should always be kept in mind. But I also like her discussion of making it interesting.

Be interesting quickly. I suck at this. It's why online dating didn't work out for me. Maybe my proposal needs a push-up bra. I'm not sure how I'm going to get there in my own proposal, but I do know that I've got to get it out there in the first paragraph, rather than embrace my own tendency to meander.

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Latinos are not swing voters

David L. Leal, Stephen A. Nuño, Jongho Lee, and Rodolfo O. de la Garza, “Latinos, Immigration, and the 2006 Midterm Elections,” PS: Political Science and Politics XLI, 2 (April 2008): 309-317.

There’s no abstract, but full text is available.

As the title suggests, the article takes a close look at the 2006 midterm elections and compares conventional wisdom about Latino voters to the actual results.

The most important conclusion is that despite conventional wisdom, Latinos were not swing voters. Their partisanship was relatively solid, and any changes (e.g. a drop in support for Republicans) were similar to that of other voters. Here’s a great quote:

Some pundits, journalists, and political consultants may repeat the myth for professional reasons. It would produce much more interest, as well as create suspense, if a substantial share of the Latino electorate was said to frequently switch its support for political parties and candidates. Such a portrayal would help generate more demand for those who provide interpretation of, commentary about, and outreach to the Latino electorate (p. 313).

They note that 23.5% of Latinos are undecided about party affiliation, which I think is a topic that deserves more attention. I’ve blogged about that before, and in a previous post had some interesting discussion in comments.

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Fujimorismo

I was about to put this in my Shared Items, but it was disturbing enough that I thought I would post it. The blog Fujimori on Trial shows how Alberto Fujimori has become much more popular after being extradited to Peru and put on trial for human rights abuses. In February 2007 9.8% sympathized with him, and in February 2008 that had risen to 14.7%. In a survey of Lima residents, 31.2% said they would vote for him again. Further, his daughter Keiko is a rising star and is increasingly being seen as a viable presidential candidate.

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Venezuelan oil tax

The Venezuelan legislature approved “windfall” taxes on oil profits. From the BBC:

They face a 50% tax when a barrel of crude is priced at $70 or more, rising to 60% when average prices tops $110.

It is President Hugo Chavez's latest attempt to get greater control over his country's oil.

Two things come to mind. First, windfall taxes do not give the Venezuelan government any more control over oil. They give it more profit, which is different.

Second, the 60% rate is actually identical to what the Venezuelan government was getting in 1959 for all oil profit regardless of price. Coincidentally, I just finished reading a book chapter on U.S.-Venezuelan relations as part of a big Latin American Research Review multi book review I am doing on U.S.-Latin American relations.* Despite its title, the chapter focuses primarily on the 1940s-1960s, arguing that the U.S. government—even in the face of the treatment Richard Nixon received in 1958—accepted Venezuelan nationalism with regard to state control over natural resources. In addition to oil, a 1965 law required majority Venezuelan ownership of insurance companies.

Obviously, the context is quite different. At that time, harsh criticism of the U.S. government came from civil society rather than the presidency (which generally followed U.S. cold war policies). Nonetheless, it is worth keeping in mind. Even in the 1960s, in the wake of the Cuban revolution, the U.S. government and companies accepted the measures.

*Darlene Rivas, “Patriotism and Petroleum: Anti-Americanism in Venezuela from Gómez to Chávez.” In Alan McPherson (ed.). Anti-Americanism in Latin America and the Caribbean (New York: Berghahn Books, 2006): 84-112.

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Political Science blogging

I just received the latest issue of PS: Political Science and Politics, which has a supplement. The first page has an article by the APSA Director of Web & Publications, entitled “Informed Publishing in Political Science.” APSA is going to focus more on teaching political scientists “the basics of and trends affecting publishing in political science.” This sounds like a really good idea, and will include a soon-to-be-released book Publishing Political Science: the APSA Guide to Writing and Publishing.

Daniel Drezner is writing the chapter on blogs. He had asked for comments (for some reason I thought I had written one, but looking at his post again I must’ve forgotten to do so). There are certainly a lot of general comments to be made about writing blogs, but I also think there are differences according to subdiscipline. This is the sort of issue that will come up at our LASA workshop (assuming it is accepted--I do not want to jinx myself, and notifications won't come until October). For Latin Americanists vs. Americanists, for example, there is a very different audience, range of issues, and expectations.

Regardless, I’m glad the topic of political science (as opposed to “political”) blogs is getting more professional attention. I must say it still surprises me that so few colleagues really seem aware of them.

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F.C. phone home

When given the chance, Cubans really like the idea of getting cell phones. Also, it appears that Fidel came up with the idea, pushed for it, and simultaneously doesn't like it.

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China and Cuba

President Bush on Cuba (March 2008):

In the face of these abuses, the United States has not been silent, nor will we be silent. (Applause.) We have been consistently joined in condemning the Cuban regime's brutal outrages by a small band of brave nations.
…
They must release all political prisoners. They must have respect for human rights in word and deed, and pave the way for free and fair elections.

President Bush’s National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley on China (April 2008):

Asked whether confronting the Beijing government about Tibet in public was counterproductive, Hadley said: "It's an issue of the Chinese government. It's also an issue of the Chinese people, who are very invested in the Olympics, who see it as a coming of age for China. And so it's a balancing here. We think that it is very important to deal with the Tibet issue. But we think the best way to do that is through the kind of diplomacy we have been undertaking, not by the kind of frontal confrontation that's being suggested by some."

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More on defense

José L. Díaz Gallardo, “Carrera Civil en Defensa: Análisis y Propuestas Para el Caso Chileno.” Security and Defense Studies Review 7, 2 (Fall 2007): 130-144.

Full text is available

Following up on a discussion about Ecuador and lack of ministerial expertise, I remembered this article, in the journal edited by the Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies in DC. It’s a relatively new online-only journal and has published some interesting stuff on civil-military relations and defense. Díaz has written quite a few articles and books on Chilean civil-military relations, both historical and contemporary.

Abstract: Scholars have analyzed participation by civilians in defense ministries in Latin America from a dual perspective: as part of a civilian-military integration and as an instrument of civilian control of the sector. These practices have been adopted in a context of democratic consolidation and, in the governmental sphere, of a demand for rationalization and greater efficiency and effectiveness in the conduct of government.

The case of Chile is a good example of this. Since the restoration of democracy (1990), the inclusion of civilians in the Ministry has been a constant. All of the ministers have been civilians, as have all undersecretaries; however, because the Ministry does not have a permanent staff of civilian professionals, an Advisory Committee has gradually and inorganically developed within the Ministry, which brings in people who provide advisory services on political, politico-strategic, budgetary, international, communications and auditing issues.

The modernization of defense requires a new ministerial organization, which structure must take into consideration the Administrative Law that governs civil public administration. The new law governing the ministry should provide for, as one of its cornerstones, a civil service track for civilian professionals. Finally, the new Undersecretariats, divisions and departments must contribute to improving relations with the Armed Forces.

In Chile after 1990, only 3 of 10 Defense Ministers have had any defense expertise, though at least that was a greater percentage than the 1932-1973 period. However, in the postauthoritarian era the government has been paying more attention to professionalizing the bureucracy (and the Defense Ministry has been undergoing reforms to eliminate duplication of duties). Whether or not that translates into a larger, decently paid, and permanent staff remains to be seen.

But this is the sort of thing is something that all other Latin American countries should pursue because it will pay future dividends. It does no one any good to rely on political appointees with little or no relevant knowledge and informal kitchen cabinets to be the bridge between the president and the military leadership.

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Cementing a relationship

Is the Venezuelan government going to nationalize the foreign-owned cement industry?

Chávez announced nationalization plans, and there was talk of a 60%-40% split. But then he said it would only apply to companies that were previously state-owned and subsequently had been privatized, which would not to apply to the big foreign companies like Cemex.

I can’t find anything clarifying it at the Agencia Bolivariana de Noticias site. On the Venezuelan government site, there is a quote from the Energy and Petroleum Minister from several days ago that “conversations” continued with foreign firms to give up at least 60% control. But he didn’t mention Chávez’s remarks. According to Cemex, Ramirez also informed the company “that other options may be considered during a negotiation period.”

At some point I will follow up on the issue of making threats of nationalization, especially as multiple announcements have been made in the past week or so. But I do want to see what the outcome is of this case. It is hard to imagine Chávez not following through at this point, but for now the government is not clarifying its intentions.

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Correa and the military in Ecuador

The civil-military conflict in Ecuador bears watching. I published an academic article five years ago about the role of Defense Ministries, which included a (now outdated) mention of Ecuador. One of the arguments was that military-dominated ministries represent a long-term obstacle to civilian supremacy over the armed forces. I further argue that naming inexperienced Defense Ministers is also an obstacle. [Not everyone agrees, I should add, and I have sometimes been portrayed as too pessimistic]

Rafael Correa is in a very tough position. The Defense Ministry in Ecuador has traditionally been dominated by the military, and until recently the minister himself was an officer (that shift to a civilian minister is, at least, a positive step). This makes it very difficult to establish civilian authority, as shown by Correa’s constant shuffling (four ministers in fifteen months). This is especially true in a country with a relatively recent history of military political intervention.

Correa is angry, and has a right to be. If the military leadership is withholding or hiding information from the president, they need to be fired. He did so, and the fact that it happened smoothly (at least thus far) is a good sign. He is also investigating the relationship between the intelligence services and the U.S. (the autonomy of military intelligence services is another troubling issue I’ve worked on).

However, naming an activist as minister who has been highly critical of the military will likely not turn out well. I understand the motivation, the message that Correa wants to send to the armed forces, as well as his desire to have a close associate in the position. But the most likely outcome is greater civil-military tension and less respect for the government. The military will do its best to ignore the ministry and will use various means to circumvent it, thus making life more difficult for the president. With any luck, I’m wrong.

The problem all over Latin America is a critical shortage of people from the left or center-left who are knowledgeable about their militaries. This doesn’t mean being sympathetic, or kowtowing, but just knowledgeable about defense policy and the military world. What Correa needs is someone who can bridge the gap by talking to the military leadership and gaining their respect without either doing their bidding or alienating them. I do not know how many people there are in Ecuador who fit that description.

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Baseball bullets

Here are some early season baseball bullets:

• I don’t think Jim Edmonds is going to work out too well. This year’s Baseball Prospectus says “The Padres’ plan to play him in center in spacious Petco Park is misguided.” Then for Wednesday’s game the money quote from the San Diego Union-Tribune was “Jim Edmonds didn't have the speed to reach Daniel Ortmeier's winning double over his head in center in the ninth, or score from third on Josh Bard's fly to left in the seventh."

• After the end of last year and the beginning of this year, I get nervous when Trevor Hoffman comes in, which is a drag. I love him but his days seem numbered.

• Because they are on TV so much, after a total of about 11 years living in NC, I find myself liking the Braves. As a teenager (when they were in the NL West) I would’ve laughed in disbelief at such a possibility.

• As I mentioned sometime last season, there are few more likable players than the Twins’ Pat Neshek, who blogs here. How many players tell fans exactly when to come down to the bullpen before a game so he can sign autographs?

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New links

I received an email from the Venezuela Information Office in DC asking if I would link to their blog Venezuela World. Sure, why not? For fun I will also link to the Western Hemisphere part of the State Department’s blog Dipnote. Get government-sponsored news to your heart’s content!

Governments’ entrance into the blogosphere deserves some attention. Everyone tends to focus on how blogs may affect politics or serve to frame political debate, but I don’t recall any analyses of how governments use blogs to offer their own contribution.

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More talking points for the Colombia FTA

Nancy Pelosi has announced plans to change the rules about the 90 day up-or-down vote on the Colombia FTA bill.

I laid out some of the key talking points on Tuesday, but this is crunch time and so I am providing some more. People, we need to pass this FTA:

--Because we might be able to sell more motor graders.

--Because the administration had 400 meetings with members of Congress and sent 60 members to Colombia to check things out. Do you really want all that time and money to be wasted?

--Because an FTA symbolizes a commitment to democracy, hope, prosperity, anti-terrorism, stability, national security, and social justice (note: be sure to say really fast which makes it sound more impressive)

--Because changing the fast track rules is “unfair.” (look hurt while saying—wiping away a tear would also be effective)

--Because they like this deal in Vegas

And my personal favorite:

--Because otherwise you’re just like Herbert Hoover. Do you really want to be like Herbert Hoover? (maybe call the other person “punk” while saying)

But if for no other reason, do it for the children!

Update: a bonus talking point from Daniel Drezner: pass the FTA so that free trade can get locked in forever and ever, no matter what.

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Not an argument you see every day

NC’s own Heath Shuler is pushing a bill to force employers nationwide to check the immigration status of their employees through a government database. The Congressional Budget Office reported that if passed the law would be very expensive. Part of the reason is that the enforcement would drive people further underground, thus depriving the federal government of $17 billion they otherwise would’ve paid in taxes. In other words, the U.S. economy depends in part on undocumented immigrants paying taxes and not receiving anything in return.

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Bachelet bump

Michelle Bachelet’s approval rating is up to 46.4%, and the percentage disapproving has also dropped, to 35.2%. This is quite possibly related to her ability to get pension reform passed, which helps those not covered by the private system.

However, she’s currently facing a host of other challenges, such as the Constitutional Court ruling that her morning-after pill distribution program was unconstitutional. She is also dealing with rising prices (12 month inflation is 8.5%) so has announced a voucher program for poor families.

Any rebound in the last half of her term will be good news for the Concertación in the next presidential election, especially since the right shows no signs of getting its collective act together.

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Key points in the Colombia FTA debate

The Bush administration has officially taken what’s been dubbed the “nuclear strategy” by sending the Colombia FTA to Congress for fast track consideration even though Congress is clearly skeptical. It must get an up or down vote within 90 days. Boz has a good summary and links.

For my readers who might be following the debate, here are the key points you need to know when discussing this at your next cocktail party.

• Passage of the FTA is the linchpin to the stability of all South America
• The FTA will “lead to a better life”
• If you oppose the FTA, you are “protectionist” and probably a closet socialist
• If you oppose the FTA, you are in league with Hugo Chávez (or at least an unwitting dupe)
  
• If you oppose the FTA, then you like drug trafficking
• Colombia has been benefiting too much from the current situation, so opposing the FTA means you don’t want to “level the playing field” for American workers.

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Shortages

I couldn’t help but juxtapose the two following news items:

--Cuba is privatizing to ease shortages

--Venezuela is nationalizing (or at least announcing nationalization) to ease shortages

This also highlights the changes in the Cuba-Venezuela relationship after Fidel’s departure. Hugo Chávez and Raúl Castro have a regular diplomatic, rather than a personal, relationship. With Raúl, Chávez does not have the same type of ideological soulmate.

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A good year for Political Science bloggers

First, Chris at Signifying Nothing announced his acceptance of a tenure track position, then Miguel at Pronto*, and now Professor Chaos--who coincidentally I knew from my M.A. program--has as well.

For anyone not in academia, the job market is a strange, stressful, and unpredictable thing, that leaves many people (including all three above, and also including me in the past) taking temporary (i.e. adjunct or visiting) positions while you work to get more publications out. The market itself can change considerably from year to year, simply depending on what departments happen to be hiring and what they happen to need.

So congratulations to all!

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Belated April Fool's?

Hugo Chávez claims he will not speak publicly about the hostage negotiations. I'm not sure he can do that without exploding.

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The politics of credible threat Part 4

In February I wrote about the many threats Chávez was making about oil and domestic nationalization, but not carrying out. He has now carried one out by nationalizing the cement industry. I hadn’t included that on my list, but he did threaten nationalization a year ago. The industry, he argues, is exporting too much and selling too little to the domestic market at a time of housing shortages.

The three main foreign players in Venezuela are Mexico's Cemex SAB, France's Lafarge SA and Switzerland's Holcim Ltd.

Holcim operates two cement plants in Venezuela with a production capacity of roughly 2.4 million tons of cement a year, while Cemex runs three plants that also produce about 2.4 million tons annually. Lafarge has two plants that produce 1.5 million tons a year.

Given the intense debate over food shortages and hoarding, at what point will he take aim at food producers? Or will he?

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Venezuelan dependence

Kay Bailey Hutchison, Texas Senator and now head of the Senate Republican Policy Committee (though fortunately not on any foreign policy-related committees) argues that Venezuela should perhaps be put on the State Department terrorist list. This is not remarkable, since a number of conservatives have argued the same, but she has her own special twist. Chávez threatens to cut off oil, but let’s call his bluff because if he cuts off exports to the U.S., he will be overthrown by the Venezuelan military.

While imposing additional sanctions on Venezuela could cause adverse short-term economic consequences, Mr. Chavez needs us more than we need him. Venezuelan oil has an extremely high-sulfur content, which requires special refineries to turn it into gasoline. Most of those refineries are in the Southern U.S. along the Gulf Coast. In short, Venezuela would have a very hard time finding other buyers if it loses its most important customer.

And with the increased willingness of Venezuela’s military to stand up to Mr. Chavez — not to mention his sinking popularity among the public — the United States is one customer Mr. Chavez can’t afford to lose.

I don’t recall the last time I saw this type of argument made so bluntly by a U.S. official. Or made so gleefully.

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JC Bradbury's The Baseball Economist

If you like baseball, then you would likely enjoy JC Bradbury’s The Baseball Economist: The Real Game Exposed. He is an economist at Kennesaw State University and also blogs at Sabernomics.

Each chapter has a different theme, and the general idea is to challenge conventional wisdom by using regression analysis and economic theory. Actually, he sometimes gets some really vitriolic comments on his blog because in baseball, like pretty much everywhere else, people hate having their core beliefs challenged.*

So, for example, he criticizes the use of batting average (and even batting average with runners in scoring position) and shows how OPS (on base percentage plus slugging percentage) does a much better job of predicting whether a given player will contribute to run scoring. He also argues that runs scored and RBIs are overrated because they depend so heavily on a player’s teammates.

Perhaps more controversial:

--having a power hitter “protect” you in the on-deck circle is a myth.

--Even if MLB is a monopoly, that’s good for fans: “Price discrimination by multi-price monopolists leads to higher profits for owners, but also more games at acceptable prices for fans” (p. 216).

There are also other fun chapters like why there are no left-handed catchers and how Leo Mazzone is not overrated.


* That includes me too. I still like statistics many people now call useless, or even bad, like stolen bases. I guess I am already getting somewhat old and crotchety.

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More on Ecuador

Ecuador is taking the border fumigation conflict with Colombia to the International Court of Justice, and has an international group of lawyers to make its case. The two countries had created commissions last year but they had not reached any agreements. This has, however, been a bone of contention for years, as chemicals don’t respect borders, and chemicals are an integral aspect of Plan Colombia.

The complaint has three elements:

First, to declare that Colombia violated Ecuadorian sovereignty

Second, to order Colombia in the future to stop fumigation at least ten kilometers from the border

Third, to order Colombia to pay reparations

This is a good move for Rafael Correa, especially since the Colombian government keeps putting out info from the laptops, all of which is juicy but unverified. So this serves to put Colombia back on the defensive. Combined with the Ecuadorian helicopter going into Colombian airspace, it’s a message to both Alvaro Uribe and to the Ecuadorian people.

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