North Carolina immigration legislation

The News & Observer has a rundown on pending legislation in North Carolina.  It is "crossover," which means a deadline by which legislation (or at least legislation not based on taxation and spending) must pass at least one house in order to become law this year or to be considered next year.  Here are the relevant bills related to immigration:

SB205: Lists documents people must use in applying for public benefits and makes it a misdemeanor for public employees who administer public benefits to fail to report immigration violations. Passed the Senate

HB33: Prohibits governments from accepting the matricula consular as ID. Passed the House.

HB36: Businesses in North Carolina with more than 25 employees would have to use the E-Verify federal database to determine that new hires are legal citizens of the United States. Passed the House.

Under education, there is another one intended to target children of undocumented parents:

HB744: Requires a birth certificate and immunization record before a child is enrolled in kindergarten. Passed the House.

Given Republican majorities, I have to think these will pass.  Governor Bev Perdue, a Democrat, has vetoed other bills but her views on immigration are fairly restrictionist.

This may get ugly.

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Venezuelan debt

Despite high oil prices, Venezuelan debt has been increasing, and now Hugo Chávez wants to raise the debt ceiling to issue bonds over $20 billion rather than $12 billion.  It is interesting to note that in 2007 he wanted decree powers in part so that he could decrease the debt. Regardless, Venezuela has a lot of reserves but still its debt is viewed as risky.

One irony is that despite his rhetorical attacks on capitalism, with high interest rates Hugo Chávez has been making a lot of people rich.

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Immigrants and skills

A new study will show that higher skilled immigrants outnumber lower-skilled.  Rather breathlessly, the Washington Post article asserts that the finding "could have profound political and economic implications in the national debate over immigration."

This is an interesting finding but I don't see how it will have any implication except at the margins.  The debate over immigration is focused squarely on undocumented immigrants, who have less education and fewer skills.  The debate will remain there regardless of the skilled/unskilled ratio.

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A peach of an immigration law

This is yet another sign of how ill-conceived many state immigration policies are.  Georgia already just passed a restrictionist law and the governor was quite proud of it.  Just one hitch: Georgia farmers are certain it will hurt them because it will drive away their only source of labor.  So after signing the bill into law and saying how great it is, the governor now says he needs an expedited study of its impact on farmers and said "he wants to get beyond anecdotal evidence and look at actual numbers."

Yes, you heard that right.  Neither the governor nor anyone else in the Georgia legislature ever looked at "actual numbers" when making a sweeping immigration law.

h/t Bender's Immigration Bulletin

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Aftermath of Peru election aftermath

--The stock market recovers

--Sebastián Piñera calls Ollanta Humala even before the results were official

--The Obama administration says it is ready to work with Humala

--Juan Manuel Santos calls Humala and calls his victory a step more toward consolidating democracy

Now of course we wait to see how he governs (he takes office on July 28).  But after all the excitement and crazy conspiracy theories, all this calm reaction is downright boring.

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Peru election aftermath

Given all the uncertainty, I was surprised when the presidential race in Peru was called rather quickly and overnight has changed very little.

The current results, with 88.4% counted, is Ollanta Humala with 51.28% and Keiko Fujimori with 48.72%.

Initial thoughts:

--The number of spoiled or blank ballots is 5.8%, which is lower than predicted.  When push came to shove, Peruvians did want to choose.

--There are plenty of news stories about jittery market but interestingly, JP Morgan says "buy Peruvian."

--There are no accusations of fraud and Keiko is telling her supporters to remain calm, so could this election turn out to be...normal?

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Peer reviewing & two solutions

A discussion at Crooked Timber (started here) made me think of a recent editor's note in the American Political Science Review.  First, a snippet of the blog post:

All the editors who took part in the roundtable observe that it is increasingly difficult to find referees. This confirms my experience as an Associate Editor of Feminist Economics, and also reflects the crazy number of requests I get to review papers from all sorts of journals, and also on papers where I strongly doubt I have special expertise. So I’ve been wondering for a long time: is this system sustainable? Is there a way to reward referees, or another way to create positive incentives for refereeing (whether material or immaterial)? Or is there no need to ‘fix the system’?

This has various parts to it, but as a journal editor for the past five years I actually disagree with the first part.  It has always been difficult to get reviewers, and I read plenty on Twitter, Facebook, Political Science Job Rumors, etc. from people complaining about how many review requests they receive.

That brings me to the APSR.  I was really struck by, and very much identify with this note from the editors in the February 2011 issue.

On a less happy note, we continue to experience some very late or ultimately non-responsive referees. We urge those referees who are not sure they can complete the review in time to decline, rather than accept and then run far over deadline-or, if unforeseen circumstances arise, to let us know so that we may assign another referee. And we welcome authors' inquiries about delay, which often spur us (and dilatory referees) into action.

People who cannot be bothered to finish reviews should never accept them in the first place.  Authors complain about the length of time the review process takes, but very often this is the result of waiting (while also bugging the authors) for late reviews or simply waiting for potential reviewers to respond in the first place.  The fact that the flagship journal in political science suffers from this shows how pervasive this is (whether it is more pervasive than in the past is open to debate).

In short, we want journals to complete the review process quickly and publish our scholarship but at the same time we screw up that process for everyone else.  I can easily imagine someone missing a deadline for a review while simultaneously emailing an editor to ask what is taking so long.

This brings me to the question of incentives mentioned in the Crooked Timber post.  Unfortunately, I cannot think of any.  It would be nice if reviewers could be paid, as they are for reviewing full-length book manuscripts, but that is obviously impossible.  Ideally, quality reviews could be submitted with other materials as part of the merit process in individual departments.  Even that, though, could only go so far.

Is the process sustainable?  Yes, there is no doubt in my mind that it is.  If two things happened, the process could be improved considerably, and neither is difficult.

First, editors need to search harder for reviewers.  Yes, it is easiest to either do a quick Google Scholar search or take a look at the TOCs of recent top journals but these tend to generate the same names over and over.  There are lots of very qualified reviewers that are not burned out and some, in fact, even email me and ask that I keep their name in mind when an article on X topic is submitted.

Second, if you are asked to do a review and cannot, then always make it a point to suggest at least one other name to the editor.  Further, for those reviewers with Ph.D. programs, suggest your advanced graduate students.  Almost without fail, those reviewers are deeply immersed in the literature and conscientious, which leads to high quality reviews.  Even just one name to the editor speeds up the process a lot.

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Alabama immigration bill

The Alabama legislature passed a law that goes even further than Arizona.  For example, if you act nervously in front of police then that is reasonable suspicion that you are in the country illegally.  The ACLU has already announced it will challenge it in court.

The chief sponsor of the bill said that it is a "jobs-creation bill for Americans."  That is not true.  Instead, it will be a "jobs-creation bill for American lawyers."

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Noriega on Humala

Thanks to one of my students for pointing out this video on Univision about Roger Noriega.  In an effort to derail Ollanta Humala's candidacy at the last minute, Noriega decided to accuse Ollanta Humala of receving money from Hugo Chávez.  He says he has a report with credible sources, but of course refuses to allow anyone to see it.

Remember that it was only a few days ago that Noriega claimed there was a plot to make Honduras a base for Hezbollah.

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Piñera needs more miners

Sebastián Piñera really needs some more trapped miners because they brought his approval ratings to a high, but they are now down to 36% with 56% negative.  Instead, he has the HidroAysén controversy and protests.  The big question now is whether that, like the miners, will only have a short term effect.  Check out his roller coaster, which is speeding downhill.

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Thoughts on the Peru election

A few general thoughts on the Peru election:

First, we need to be careful about claiming a tightening race means much more than that close races tend to tighten as election day nears (presidential races in the United States, for example, often tighten).  On this point, see Otto's post about a risk group's (Eurasia) take on the tightening, which I would argue is little better than flipping a coin.

Second, much has been made of undecideds, as if they could really go either way.  This is debatable.  In the U.S., for example, there is ample evidence that most undecideds or self-proclaimed independents lean very definitely Republican or Democrat.  In the Peruvian case, these candidates are very far apart ideologically, and Peru is a very unequal country, so it is difficult to see too many people feeling genuinely undecided.  It is more likely that they are leaning, but choosing not to say which way.

Third, there is a broad assumption that poorer people will vote for Humala and those with more money will vote for Fujimori, but it is hard to predict who might simply spoil their ballot (in Peru, voting is compulsory so it is more likely to see spoiled ballots than abstention).  Jo-Marie Burt and Coletta Youngers argue that the current number is 7-12%.  That is a significant percentage, but it is hard to tell whether it favors one side or the other (or neither).

What does all this mean?  The unremarkable conclusion that it is a toss-up.

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Israeli lobbying in Latin America

There was a flurry of analyses last year when Brazil recognized a Palestinian state and other Latin American governments followed suit.  The Jerusalem Post has a very detailed (and seriously realpolitik) discussion of Israel's current lobbying strategy to ensure that Latin American governments don't vote that way at the UN.  The idea is to ensure that 60 countries vote against statehood or abstain, and that if a bunch of tin-pot dictatorships vote in favor, it doesn't really matter too much.

Israel might also float an alternative plan that could siphon off votes.  The articles makes no pretense that such a plan would be serious--indeed, it uses the word "wink"!  It would just need to get enough votes to thwart the Palestinians.

Regardless, Israel will pay particular attention to Chile, Peru, and Uruguay, which recognized a Palestinian state but were vague on the borders, and convince them not to vote in favor.  It is hoping that Mexico will be able to influence Central America as well.

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Cartagena and conspiracies

Roger Noriega published an op-ed on the Cartagena Accord.  After reading it, there are three possible conclusions:

First, he believes truly insane conspiracy theories.

Second, he hates Mel Zelaya so much that he's willing to peddle insane conspiracy theories he knows are loony.

Third, as RNS guesses, he's positioning himself for lucrative consulting money from Honduran elites.

Here is the crux of his argument.  The Cartagena Accord is Hugo Chávez's way of taking over Honduras and making it into a narco-state for the sake of Hezbollah.  I promise I am not making that up.

Just read it, and soak in the conspiracy.  The problem, though, is that this isn't even a good conspiracy theory.

On a side note, President Juan Manuel Santos must really be in the conservative doghouse if the right in the United States can't even mention his name (he was, of course, the other driving force of the agreement along with Chávez, which seriously undermines Noriega's rant unless he now sees Santos as somehow hypnotized by Chávez).  Now even Honduran President Porfirio Lobo is in the doghouse.

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More on E-Verify

The Supreme Court upheld Arizona's 2007 law requiring businesses to use E-Verify.  I've written about this numerous times in the past, and as yet my conclusion hasn't changed.  E-Verify can potentially be an effective tool for enforcement, but is still extremely expensive and loaded with onerous bugs.

A December 2010 GAO report notes that:

--the program has improved its accuracy, but still screws up with a lot of people and then has a very cumbersome and lengthy (average of 104 days) of rectifying that (in 2010 the DHS' own consultants were extremely critical)

--there is no good estimate of its cost on local governments (in 2009 officials in Georgia acknowledged that it was so expensive they were not really enforcing anything)

E-Verify supporters ignore these issues.  For example, in an op-ed about the ruling Lamar Smith (R-TX) and Ken Calvert (R-CA) write the following:

E-Verify provides American employers who want to do the right thing with a straightforward tool to do so. Just like the red push-button marked “easy,” E-Verify easily confirms legal workers with just a click of a mouse.

Now, that was easy.

I suppose many people will believe that, despite facts.  We will end up more mired in the current situation, with haphazard enforcement and growing frustration on all sides.

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Pérez-Reverte's The Sun Over Breda

In 1625 the Dutch city of Breda surrendered to Spanish forces after a 10 month siege.  Ten years later Diego Velázquez painted The Surrender of Breda.  Arturo Pérez-Reverte's The Sun Over Breda is part of the Captain Alatriste series and is an account of the siege.  In typical fashion, famous Spanish figures make an entrance, as the narrator, young Iñigo Balboa, relates how he talked to Velázquez while he was painting it, and early in the novel also helps Pedro Calderón de la Barca save books from a burning library.  At the end of the book, there is even a brief fictional academic essay about which figure in the painting might be Captain Alatriste.

I really like the series (a past review is here), though this particular book will disappoint if you're looking for action.  The plot itself is really the siege, so you already know how that will come out.  But in Captain Alatriste, Pérez-Reverte has created a character that embodies the Spanish Golden Age, with its obsession with honor and loyalty accompanied by a growing recognition that things are getting worse.  The narrative focuses on the sweat, dirt, pain, and perseverance of ill-paid soldiers.

I felt there was also a message connected to current events, about the ability to wage war without seeing it or feeling it (after all, the author was a war correspondent):

He who kills from afar knows nothing at all about act of killing.  He who kills from afar derives no lesson from life or from death; he neither risks nor stains his hands with blood, nor hears the breathing of his adversary, nor reads the fear, courage, or indifference in his eyes.  He who kills from afar tests neither his arm, his heart, nor his conscience, nor does he create ghosts that will later haunt him every single night for the rest of his life.  He who kills from afar is a knave who commends to others the dirty and terrible task that is his own (p. 163).

Appropriate, though entirely coincidental, that I finished reading it on Memorial Day.

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Quote of the day: commodities

“I think it’s great that Latin America has new export markets for its raw materials. But if Latin America simply sticks to exporting raw materials, they will be going back to the past.”

That was Arturo Valenzuela's response to Andres Oppenheimer's column on China's role in Latin America (which I criticized here).  Oppenheimer didn't really have any good counter-response because I don't think there is one.

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Food prices and inflation

The L.A. Times says Latin American inflation is a problem while Reuters says it seems not to be a problem.  No one can really seem to agree whether demand for commodities, which is an important element of current inflationary pressure, is leveling out or not, or how effectively Latin American governments can respond.

A recent IDB report on food prices has an interesting table on the prices of some key agricultural goods.

So there is definitely an uptick, but there is plenty of disagreement about what direction those prices will continue going.  The IDB's take is that countries with more flexible exchange rates won't see prices increase as much.

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Oily conflict with Venezuela

The current flap between the United States and Venezuela, where the U.S. is imposing sanctions on PDVSA, almost immediately brought up the elephant in the room: co-dependency.

The U.S. sanctions PDVSA, but this only prevents it from pursuing contracts in the U.S. and getting credit and licenses.  They very specifically have no impact on the flow of Venezuelan oil to U.S. consumers, who don't care where their gas comes from as long as it doesn't keep going up in price.

Meanwhile, Hugo Chávez got so mad that he started...tweeting. That included threatening (as he periodically has done over the years) to cut off oil exports.  But he can't do so without seriously disrupting the Venezuelan economy.  Venezuelans don't care who they're selling to as long as the revenue comes in.

Americas Quarterly makes the interesting point that the U.S. is also sanctioning companies in Israel and the United Arab Emirates.

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Quote of the day: 287(g)

“If we continue to trend this way… clearly our resources in the Sheriff’s Office could be better used in areas like mental health,” Hall said. “That’s what we would hope, which would be able to focus in a direct way in other areas.”

--Davidson County (Nashville, TN) Sheriff Daron Hall

It is in reference to the fact that Nashville is seeing fewer deportations through the 287(g) program.  As with the estimated leveling off of the undocumented immigrant population in the United States, it is due to a combination of recession and enforcement, in addition to the fact that the Hispanic population in Tennessee (and the rest of the South) could not keep growing as fast as it was, so the high rates were never sustainable.

His point raises an interesting policy angle, namely that opponents of 287(g) could reasonable argue for termination of the program once deportations dropped to a certain level.  You could even include sunset provisions in the legislation.

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The vision thing in Latin America

Andres Oppenheimer argues that the way to reduce China's share of trade in Latin America is for the United States to create "an ambitious plan" for Latin American universities.  You are correct: that makes very little sense.  But it emphasizes a problem for those who argue the Obama administration needs a new grand policy vision.

“There is a perceived lack of strategic vision on the part of the United States vis-à-vis the region,” ECLAC’s recent report says. “The Alliance for Progress, the Initiative for the Americas and the Free Trade Area of the Americas were all ambitious U.S. initiatives for regional cooperation. Today, no equivalent to those initiatives exists.”

The FTAA?  It was a failure and is generally seen as an example of the tone deaf nature of the Bush administration as it tried to force the negotiations.  That is not a model to be followed.

China is gobbling up Latin American economies, and would be doing so even if Obama had announced a grandiose vision.  Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Arab Spring (all distractions) would still be happening too.  Fear of being supplanted by China should not lead us toward vague grandiosity.

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The Cartagena Accord in Honduras

My impression of the Cartagena Accord, which allows for Mel Zelaya's return to Honduras, is positive.  For a translation and discussion you should read this post at Honduras Culture and Politics.

This is really the moment of truth for the Frente Nacional de Resistencia Popular, or FNRP.  Some resistance groups--even armed ones--have become parties and entered the formal political process with tremendous success, but there is always considerable internal disagreement about whether becoming a political party will lead to real change or will be selling out to the establishment.  One difference in Honduras to other prominent examples (e.g. the FMLN and FSLN) is that although there was a coup, there was no protracted civil war or extended military dictatorship.  There is a pretty large literature on post-civil war transformations, but that does not fit Honduras too well.  The FNRP is not a guerrilla organization that has to give up armed struggle.

There is also a lot written on how ethnic movements become parties.  See, for example, Donna Lee Van Cott's book From Movements to Parties in Latin America. She argues that more open institutional rules augur well for ethnic movements to successfully become parties, when combined with deteriorating linkages to existing parties and strong leadership in the movements.  In Honduras it is reasonable to argue that the first two conditions are present.  As for the third, the FNRP is not an ethnic movement, and so the key factor is whether the leadership can keep it together as an organization that is for certain policies as opposed to being against the government.  Ethnic identity is by no means a guarantee of unity, but it provides for a sense of commonality that the FNRP will have to continually generate.

The FNRP's political committee issued a statement praising the Accord, so we will have to see whether it remains unified over the long term.

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Giving money to lawyers

The South Carolina legislature is debating an anti-immigrant proposal modeled after Arizona.  One of its components is actually to direct people to sue any local government that they feel is not enforcing it.  So one of the poorest states in the U.S. actively wants people to drain the state's own resources and give it directly to lawyers.

You can get a good sense of the level of discussion by the fact that there is a self-proclaimed "Confederate Cuban" who believes that undocumented immigrants are criminals.

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Luis Sepúlveda's The Name of a Bullfighter

If you like Paco Ignacio Taibo II, then you may well like Luis Sepúlveda's The Name of a Bullfighter.  In fact, Sepúlveda thanks his friend Taibo.  The book is so similar in style: hardboiled crime fiction that is much more intent on evoking images, even very political ones, than on creating intricate plots.  What makes Sepúlveda intriguing is that his theme is Chile as it moved from dictatorship to democracy, and that makes the book darker than Taibo's.  The author was exiled in 1975 and still lives in Germany.

The story centers on World War II-era treasure that is hidden in Tierra del Fuego, and how various unscrupulous people are after it.  The disillusionment of radical leftists permeates the entire novel--they see the disaster of Marxism (as well as the violent battles between different Marxist models) and in Chile also see a democracy without justice.  The only soft spot of the main character is his former girlfriend, now mute and vacant due to brutal torture by the Chilean military.  Everything else is, as he puts it, "the bitterness I camouflage as toughness" (p. 197).

The guy was right.  It was a democracy.  He didn't even bother to say that they had restored democracy, or that democracy had been restored.  No.  Chile "was" a democracy, which was the equivalent of saying the country was on the right track and anyone asking awkward questions could dislodge it from the correct.

Maybe this same guy had made his career, in part, in prisons that never existed, with addresses no one can remember, interrogating women, old people, adults, and children who were never arrested, with faces no one can remember, because when democracy spread her legs to let Chile inside, she named her price beforehand, and demanded payment in a currency called forgetting (p. 148).

I recommend it.

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Piñera's speech

Sebastián Piñera gave his presidential address today--here is the text, complete with subheadings.  It is a strikingly comprehensive speech.  How often do presidents include a discussion of how they've worked to encourage tourism?

Some quick thoughts:

--Can't agree more with his discussion of defense, where he discussed both getting rid of the Copper Law and reforming the Code of Military Justice.  Since he also brought up human rights and noted the abuses of the dictatorship, he did not throw a bone at all to the far right and retired officers.

--He took a direct swing at Evo Morales for his comments about the border dispute.  It is hard to resist a little nationalist fervor, especially with Bolivia.

--He mentioned the problem of narcotrafficking, and it is an unfortunate sign of the times that this is increasingly  becoming part of Chilean presidents' speeches.

--Does anyone really ever pay attention when presidents make extravagant claims like creating one million jobs?  Piñera made that claim, said he achieved less than half, and declared victory.

His approval rating is currently at 41%, with 49% disapproval, so it seems that Chileans are not necessarily convinced that the past year has been quite so "fecundo y promisorio."

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Latin American economies

Thanks to Andrés Velasco for this article, which in many ways sums up what I've been arguing fairly regularly for over six months regarding the irrational exuberance about Latin American economic growth.  But a respected former Finance Minister of Chile may hope to have some more impact.

But today’s situation shares two features with the earlier episodes of financial euphoria over Latin America: sky-high commodity prices and cheap international money. In fact, for many of the region’s countries, the terms of trade are higher and the relevant global interest rates lower than they have ever been. These factors, more than any virtuous policy change in recent years, are propelling growth.

True.

The problem is that governments in the region have yet to realize that countercyclical fiscal policy implies rowing against the current in both parts of the cycle: spending more when times are bad (the easy part) and spending less when times are good (the true test of virtue). Today, fiscal policy remains too expansionary in virtually every Latin American country.

That fiscal impulse, coupled with high commodity prices and abundant credit, continues to fuel economic growth today – often at the expense of stability and growth tomorrow. Latin America’s time has finally come, too many pundits will keep saying. If only they were right.

On this, I agree to a point, though I think he is pointing primarily to places like Venezuela with a high level of clientelism.  You can still spend in good times as long as you are spending on the right things, particularly in terms of encouraging movement away from dependence on commodities.

The key takeaway point, though, is that excitement over GDP growth, leading to talk about how some Latin American economies should be viewed as "models," is short-sighted because it consciously ignores serious underlying weaknesses.

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End of Copper Law gets closer

Even as the binomial system comes closer to its demise, so does the Chilean Copper Law.  Sebastián Piñera is sending a bill to Congress to end it (the headline of the article unhelpfully mentions that he signed it, as if that made it a law).  Piñera already shifted control of the funds to the Ministry of Finance, and I had wondered whether that meant he would sit on it for a while, but he's not (and, after all, with a single four year term Chilean presidents can't sit on anything too long).  It certainly has an excellent chance of passing with the Concertación and fiscal conservatives on board.  Opposition will come from those on the far right tied to the military, as well as nationalist sentiment, potentially with concern about conflict with Peru.

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John Thorm's Baseball in the Garden of Eden

The purported aim of John Thorn's Baseball in the Garden of Eden: The Secret History of the Early Game is to settle the question of where baseball originated.  Was it purely American (and therefore virtuous according to its advocates 100 years ago) or did it derive from English rounders (and therefore unoriginal)?  The depth of research is truly impressive, as he digs all the way from archives into classified ads in obscure northeastern newspapers.  But he solves the question about one-third through the book--clearly it evolved from rounders, and the Manhattan variation of Base Ball managed to dominate (because, as Thorn points out, that version was claimed as "manly" while also "easier for unathletic clerks to play" (p. 48).  Over time, "soaking" (hitting someone to make an out) was phased out, and the pitcher had to stand further back.

I actually found other elements of the book more interesting, and even provocative.  Thorn argues that, despite all the nostalgia, baseball succeeded largely because of gambling.  Without the wagering, the crowds would not have come, the money would not have flowed, and the game would have foundered.  Gambling, of course, became a scourge, but he argues it created baseball in the first place.

Indeed, if anything his overall argument is that our national pastime is based on baseness, and very successfully so.  He doesn't raise the issue of Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, or any other modern player in that regard, but in painstaking (and in often "I need to skim this paragraph" detail) he discusses the plotting going on in the background.  That could be economic, political, or even religious.  Did you know how central Theosophists were in baseball's origins?  Me neither.  It does not really matter much, but peels back some layers of historical impurity we like to pretend don't exist when we look at current players.

More from "the more things change, the more they stay the same" category:

--tinkering with the pitching area or balls to encourage hitting goes well back into the nineteenth century

--serious labor fights, with holdouts, etc. have always been central in baseball

--for over 100 years, people have said baseball was better in the old days.  A comment from the 1870s noted the game "not being as lively as it was ten years ago" (p. 153).

--the debate over whether to wear your socks high or low was also a big deal in 1867 (p. 138).

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More on Chile's binomial system

Discussion over reform of the binomial system continues in Chile.  Claudio Fuentes, who has been writing about this regularly over past months, notes the changing political calculations of the center-right National Renovation Party.  In particular, RN may believe the electoral system is benefiting the right wing UDI party at its expense.  Plus, since it is no longer in the opposition RN may be looking more at gaining a majority rather than simply acting as a veto player.  It is noteworthy that just two years ago while it was still in opposition, the right blocked reforms.

This is a "stay tuned" situation but there seems to be a certain amount of political momentum gradually building.

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Argentina documents

Mike Allison pointed out the fact that the U.S. Congress voted not to declassify documents related to the 1976-1983 dictatorship in Argentina.  We know that this decision is based on the fact that they show explicitly how the U.S. government lavished praise on brutal tyrants and essentially said torture was fine while hypocritically talking in public about democracy.  Check out the National Security Archive for some declassified State Department documents on Argentina.

However, people can't say that, so instead the argument is that it would distract U.S. spies from from the fight against Al Qaeda.  The debate hasn't been published yet in the Congressional Record, so I will have to wait to see if anyone offered anything else, but I do have to say that such an argument makes absolutely no sense at all.

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Colombia and Blackwater

So what do members of the Colombian military do after receiving training from the U.S.?  At least some join Blackwater to become part of a private militia intended to support and protect autocracy in the United Arab Emirates.  The NYT notes, in fact, that Colombians are particularly desired because they aren't Muslim.  The head of Blackwater isn't convinced that Muslims will kill Muslims if needed, but is not worried about Colombians in that regard.

The UAE is concerned about Iran, but seemingly equally (or maybe more, given events elsewhere in the Middle East) concerned with having enough Colombians and South Africans to attack labor camps and ensure no democratization movement gets going.

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China's economic solution

China is recognizing that Latin America is mostly exporting primary products, and that manufactured goods would be preferable.  Its solution: use more Chinese government money to make products China wants to sell to the Chinese market.  As it turns out, this is also preferable for China because demand for commodities is slowing down there.  One interesting part of reading Chinese sources about this is how they do not even bother putting investment in a context of fighting poverty, empowering people, etc. They focus on whether it is in China's economic interest.  Sort of refreshing in a way.

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Clinton speech

I generally like Hillary Clinton's speech yesterday on Latin America.  It is refreshingly free of references to Hugo Chávez, Iran, or other typical boogeymen.  Instead, it focused on inequality, tax reform, immigration reform, crime, and education.  In other words, real problems.  Plenty of people are complaining about the Obama administration's approach to Latin America, but I would argue that it is useful just to continue the shift away from a security-obsessive message to one that actually addresses Latin American concerns (which, incidentally, are not about Hugo Chávez).

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Alligators in the moat

Kevin Siers nails this:

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Doubling down on enforcement

With yesterday's speech on immigration, President Obama is essentially doubling down on enforcement.  I have written numerous times that I do not believe this strategy will work because no amount of enforcement is sufficient to change anyone's minds.  Yet here is the strange part: Obama acknowledges that fact.

THE PRESIDENT:  You know, they said we needed to triple the Border Patrol.  Or now they’re going to say we need to quadruple the Border Patrol.  Or they’ll want a higher fence.  Maybe they’ll need a moat.  (Laughter.)  Maybe they want alligators in the moat.  (Laughter.)  They’ll never be satisfied.  And I understand that.  That’s politics.

That's a good line, but it therefore seems counterproductive to trumpet enforcement since it satisfies no one.  Obama's other lure is economic, making case that the middle class and companies alike will benefit from immigration reform.  Hard to see that getting much traction, but it's worth a shot.

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Positive side of commodities

Last time I wrote about commodities and economic growth, I got some good comments that are worth expanding on a bit.  In particular, there is the question of the potentially positive consequences of a decrease in commodity prices, which otherwise are problematic for countries that are highly dependent upon them.

• As commodity prices drop, so will inflationary pressures.  Chile might be experiencing that now.  Across the region, inflation is not high by historical standards but has been going up.

• Lower inflation and lower commodity prices may also reduce the price of food.  We're not seeing that yet, and let's hope global warming does not counteract the benefits.

• Commodity booms often entail currency appreciation (check out Brazil and Chile in this graph).  If that is reversed then other exports can become more competitive.  Currencies do seem to be slipping, but the $100,000 question is whether industrial exports will make up for the loss of revenue from commodities.

So the glass need not always be half empty.  Nonetheless, the underlying problems of dependency remain serious.

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Immigration: there's an app for that

Really interesting article in the New York Times about the use of cellphones to cross the U.S.-Mexico border illegally.

“I’ve crossed eight times, and this is the first time they’ve directed me with my cellphone,” said Sandra Silva, 30, a native of Guadalajara, Mexico, who was on her way to Phoenix. “It’s like a guide through the desert.”

It is a bit surprising that this is so new.  With regard to the border, considerable attention is paid to technology, and yet this is one of the most basic, cheap, and widely available technologies.

Regardless, this development should remind us that as long as there is demand for employment in the United States, the supply of labor will meet it one way or another (or in the case of the migrant interviewed in the story, eight ways or another).  It is truly that simple.

Oh, by the way, there is an app for that:

To reduce the number of fatalities among border crossers, a University of San Diego professor, Ricardo Dominguez, has been developing a cellphone application to help guide illegal immigrants to water stations and other points of safety.

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Security threats in Latin America

From General Douglas Fraser, head of the U.S. Southern Command:

"I do not see any conventional military threat to the United States from the region," General Douglas Fraser told a conference organized by the University of Miami. "So my concerns then become... very non-traditional.

Good for him.  This should be obvious, but we hear far too many voices claiming Cuba, Venezuela, et al are security threats.  And what about all the Iran paranoia?

Fraser noted that Iran had almost doubled the number of embassies in the region in the past five years, established cultural centers in 17 countries, and is supporting anti-US efforts in the area."

But, he said, "from a security standpoint, I have not seen a significant connection. My primary concern remains their historic relationship with Hezbollah."

The more we repeat this, the better.  Let's stop obsessing with Hugo Chávez, Iran, etc. and focus on real threats, which revolve around drug trafficking and gangs.  I am still dubious about the Hezbollah threat, but it is far preferable to call it a "concern" rather than a "threat."

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Pop goes the bubble?

I've been writing a lot over recent months about how the heralded Latin American economic growth is based largely on high commodity prices, and wondering about the long-term effects.  So this article in the New York Times caught my eye:

Commodities prices fell sharply on Thursday, led by the steepest drop in oil prices since the fall of 2008.

Investors dumped commodities like silver and coffee and sugar that had seen a vast — and some said worrying — build up in prices within the last year on expectations of strong global demand.

And:

“You’re in a situation where a lot of these markets have pushed to all-time highs and it’s at a point where it became very unstable and that’s where you started to topple,” said Dax L. Wedemeyer, a broker analyst with US Commodities, a brokerage firm West Des Moines, Iowa.

So we'll wait and see what the growth numbers look like later this year.

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Alan Garcia and elections

I recommend Frank Bajak's article on Alan García's role in the Peruvian presidential elections.  It can be summed up with three words: ego, ego, and ego.  Really, the strangest part of it all is how an individual who is so unpopular and has enacted so many disastrous policies, and who now credits Pope John Paul with Osama bin Laden's death, has any influence at all.

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Latin America economic outlook

The International Monetary Fund issued its Regional Economic Outlook for Latin America.  The overall conclusion is that growth is based largely on commodity exports, demand for which has created a risk of overheating.  Tucked in there is the acknowledgment that high commodity prices include food and that high food prices make people go hungry.  What to do?  School lunches within the "established budget envelope" without stimulating demand.  Who knew hunger was so easily solved?

Rising global prices of commodities, especially food, pose an important social challenge across the region. This applies even to countries that are net exporters of commodities and food, the report said.

To protect the poor, policies should focus on scaling up proven social safety net programs, such as targeted income transfers, school lunches, and child nutrition programs. Generalized price subsidies should be avoided as these measures are often very costly and regressive, and can turn out to be permanent—requiring large adjustments to other parts of the budget. The expansion of safety nets should take place within the established budget envelope, in some cases to avoid stimulating demand (South America), while in other cases to rebuild the policy buffers (Central America and the Caribbean).

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Not lazy in Mexico

The Mexican cultural stereotype (which, sadly, is still prevalent) is famously centered on laziness, with people taking long siestas.  Now the OECD notes that Mexicans work longer hours than anyone else.  I agree, though, that this is nothing to brag about:

But Rubio and other economists said revelations of such hard work by Mexicans is not really good news — rather it is a symptom of underdevelopment and inefficiencies.

“The environment in which they work tends to demand more work, more hassle and more complexity to arrive at a similar result,” Rubio said. “In other words, productivity is lower in Mexico because there are so many obstacles to efficient work,” such as the mountains of red tape produced by a sprawling government and corporate bureaucracy.

So working harder does not get you much further along.

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More on Osama bin Laden and Latin America

Two more thoughts on Osama bin Laden and Latin America:

First, lots of people talking about how much this matters for Barack Obama in 2012.  Maybe, but go back to this oldie but goodie from January 1989:  the New York Times proclaimed "Approval of Bush, Bolstered by Panama, Soars in Poll."  Bush Sr. was bigger than Elvis for a while.  Yes, invading a small Central American country is not as exciting as killing OBL, but there is still a long way to go until the next presidential election.  Long enough that it is very premature to say with much confidence how a big foreign policy boost will affect voters' feelings that far ahead.

Second, killing a highly symbolic leader is certainly important, but we should be careful not to overstate how it changes everything. In Colombia, the government has killed such FARC leaders as Mono Jojoy, but that does not end the insurrection.  The FARC, like Al Qaeda, is being weakened not only by military strikes but also--and this is critical--by domestic and international condemnation.  Killing their leaders, however, does not suddenly end the battle.

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Osama bin Laden and Latin America

When I heard the news about Osama bin Laden, two Latin America-related thoughts came to mind.

First, when the CIA hunted down Che Guevara, they took photos and even cut off his hands.  This was done on purpose: they wanted to prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that he was dead.  Nobody ever questioned whether it was really him.  But now OBL's body was thrown into the sea, which will spawn endless conspiracy theories.  Well, maybe that's not so bad, as they could be entertaining.

Second, if we are lucky then this will take some air out of the conspiracy theories regarding Al Qaeda's infiltration of Latin America.  Unfortunately, we probably won't be lucky, and of course you can just blame Hezbollah instead.  These conspiracy theories are not entertaining, as they can lead to bad policy.

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Juxtaposition: South America

Coca Cola plans new bottling plants in South America

AND

Chilean first lady starts campaign against obesity

Unfortunately, the increased Americanization of the Latin American diet may someday make the Latino health paradox a thing of the past.

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Left in Venezuela

When talking about the thaw between Venezuela and Colombia, the most common focus is how it annoys the U.S. government and Alvaro Uribe.  But it also annoys the Venezuelan left, which is furious that Hugo Chávez arrested a suspected member of the FARC, Joaquin Perez.

The move is considered a betrayal among many Chavez supporters, including prominent lawmakers, journalists and at least one former minister. It has provoked a furious reaction.

"Next we will be the chased and arrested," said Luis Alvarez, one of about 200 protesters outside Venezuela's Foreign Ministry, "This is terrible and dangerous for the whole international revolutionary movement."

Protesters set ablaze an effigy of Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro, calling him and Information Minister Andres Izarra "traitors." Some anger also was directed at Chavez, as shown in road graffiti that said "Chavez, betrayal is not revolution."

The idea that going after the FARC is betrayal is not likely shared by too many Venezuelans, so it is entirely worth it for Chávez to risk their ire and improve relations with Colombia.  That will be beneficial for gaining moderate votes in 2012 and for the economy.

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Obama and immigration

Ruben Navarette takes a very critical look at President Obama's record on immigration.  I agree with much of it, but am less sure about this:

Obama may not be a good leader but he has good timing: ramp up immigration reform groups in the spring; work with congressional leaders to draft legislation in the summer; propose a bill in the fall. Then he can spend early winter watching Republicans tear apart the idea — and themselves — in time for the New Hampshire primary in February 2012. Obama can waltz through next year's campaign with the confidence that he'll do fairly well with Latinos who will show up to vote not for him but against the Republican candidate.

Maybe.  But this does not adequately explore the possibility that Latinos (and others) will stay home rather than vote against Republicans.  At any rate, it is hard to see any "waltzing" in Obama's future.

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Getting moderates in Peru

Ollanta Humala had his about face to woo moderates for the run-off, and here is Keiko Fujimori's.  Before, her father headed the "best government in Peru's history."  Now she apologizes for his "mistakes" and "crimes."  And he might have been "authoritarian" but not a dictatorship.  Before, she said she "would not hesitate" to pardon him.  Now she swears she won't.

So will the real Ollanta Humala and Keiko Fujimori please stand up?

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The WHINSEC debate goes on

An article at the Council of Hemispheric Affairs has generated some heat (updated: see more on COHA's own response here), as it questions the assumptions of those--particularly the School of the Americas Watch--who want the Western Hemisphere Institute for Security Cooperation (WHINSEC, formerly the School of the Americas) closed.  I don't think it is a very well-written or well-argued article, though it remind me of several problems people face when discussing this hotly charged issue.

First, WHINSEC and the SOA should not be viewed as the same thing, or at the very least that assertion should be treated as something to be proved rather than assumed.

Second, any analysis of SOA's influence on individuals should also take into account the domestic Latin American civil-military context.  Both SOA and WHINSEC have an impact, though not necessarily in the simple way (we teach, they go and practice our teachings) that many supporters and critics alike assert.

Third, the fact that WHINSEC's budget is small does not mean it should or shouldn't be closed.  Arguments should focus more on what it is actually doing.

For my 2003 academic article on the topic, see here.  I last wrote about WHINSEC on this blog in 2007.

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Peru and moderation

While I am glad to a the mainstream media (in this case Newsweek) contradict conventional wisdom about the Peruvian election, I do wish it could be done more cogently.  The basic argument is that whoever wins in Peru will likely govern more moderately than people tend to think.  That argument can be made most convincingly by focusing on political institutions: Ollanta Humala needs the center to gain a majority in a second round, and then will face an opposition majority in the legislature.  Therefore he will need to move toward the center.  Maybe this is wrong, maybe it is right, but it is a logical argument.

Instead, the article veers off into how Humala might copy Lula, without any evidence to suggest precisely why he would do so other than that he wants to win--that makes more sense if you ditch the Lula comparison and just look at the dynamics of winning a presidential election in Peru.

Then it heads into what seems an inevitable part of U.S. media analyses of the election.  Macroeconomic indicators make everyone say Peru is a success story (and, of course, in the past similar stories circulated about Bolivia, Venezuela, etc.) and we cannot understand why Peruvians themselves seem not to understand that.  The article gets into that only very briefly.  If you get an outcome that seems to make no sense, you should start thinking of alternate hypotheses.  In the case of Peru, that is not happening very often in media accounts of the election.

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Juan of the Dead

Best idea for a movie that I have heard in a long time.

Mysterious attacks break out across the island, leaving the victims disfigured and drenched in blood. The government and state media blame US-backed dissidents and assure the population the situation is under control.

But as the attacks spread, Juan, a fortysomething loafer in Havana, identifies the true culprit – a plague of zombies – and does what Cubans traditionally do in times of crisis: becomes a capitalist. He sets up a business, Juan of the Dead, and makes a quick profit ridding customers of infected loved ones by bashing, smashing and stomping out their brains.

Welcome to the world of Cuba's first feature-length horror film in half a century, a gore-filled black comedy which satirises social mores in the twilight of Castro rule.

"It makes observations about who we are," Alejandro Brugués, the director and writer, said. "A government which blames the US for everything. A people who are very passive. And then when confronted with a crisis we go into business."

I have to see this movie.  It also made me wonder if there is any correlation between political regime and movie genres.  Dictatorships don't seem to produce many horror movies, perhaps because people aren't in the mood to be frightened further?

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State law and guest workers

Fascinating stuff.  Republican members of the House are criticizing the Utah immigration bill because it contains a guest worker provision.  As I've noted, the Georgia bill that seems likely to be signed into law also contains such a provision.  For these reasons, we need to be careful about lumping all such laws together as the same as SB 1070 (something I have to admit I have tended to do).  Here is an interesting quote from that article:

But Utah legislators said the state needed a bill that covered enforcement as well as the state’s need for immigrant labor.

"Being reasonable and being conservative are not mutually exclusive,” Herbert said in a statement to a local Utah television station. “Part of being conservative is being practical.”

Again, very interesting.  Conventional wisdom is that Republicans must play to an enforcement-minded base.  Is there room in there for "practical" and "reasonable"?

I have not bothered to go into the hypocrisy of criticizing state laws while also refusing to pass federal law.  It is like shooting fish in a barrel.

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Brazil and Honduras

Boz writes about how Juan Manuel Santos did an end run around Brazil with regard to getting Hugo Chávez's support for Honduras' reincorporation into the OAS, which puts Dilma Rousseff in the position of either supporting it or looking extreme.

I would offer a slightly different argument, namely that Rousseff doesn't care.  The Honduran coup obviously touched a chord with Lula, who inserted Brazil in an unprecedented fashion.  But Rousseff, despite her own strong leftist and anti-dictatorial credentials, does not appear particularly interested.  So the end run may more accurately be labeled as taking action while Brazil chooses not to.

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Juxtaposition: Honduras

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen says the U.S. should not pressure Honduras because it is "blackmail."

AND

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen says the U.S. "must make the defense of human rights and democratic principles a foreign policy priority."

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Runoff dynamics in Peru

It is interesting to watch the incentives generated by the presidential runoff system in Peru.  With only 31 percent in the first round, Ollanta Humala needs to woo a lot of voters, and he has clearly decided he needs to go to the center to get them.  To that end, he is backing off previous statements about nationalization, such as in his "Nationalist Proposal."  He put together a team of moderates, and his top advisor keeps saying there will be no state takeovers and an Humala administration would respect existing free trade agreements.   Now he says the pension system will remain in private hands, saying "We want to give confidence to the Peruvian people."

A new poll is expected on April 24, so stay tuned.

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Immigration gridlock

Esther Cepeda has a good analysis of the appellate court ruling on SB 1070, particularly how it does not clearly articulate the proper relationship between federal and state governments with regard to the foreign policy issue of immigration.  I really like her conclusion, and I agree completely:

Observers of Arizona's audacious law had hoped its judicial spectacle would at least prod the federal government into some action. But based on this decision, it seems that at least for the foreseeable future Washington's message to Arizona and other states who want to take immigration matters into their own hands is: You're not allowed to deal with illegal immigration yourselves, only we can. And we will. Sometime. Maybe. Stand by.

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Brazilian immigration

Tyler Cowen asks why Brazilians migrate less frequently to the United States than Salvadorans.  He then offers some hypotheses, some of which ("Brazil is too much fun to leave") seem only to be feeble attempts at humor, while others ("Brazil has a history of viewing the United States as a rival; El Salvador does not") don't actually make sense to me.  Cuba is a rival, yet Cubans come to the U.S. in large numbers.  So let me offer three others:

1. The United States did not spend billions on a violent civil war in Brazil.  That alone accounts for a lot of Salvadoran migration (see also: Colombia and Iraq).

2. Speaking Portuguese rather than Spanish puts low wage Brazilians at a distinct disadvantage in the United States compared to Spanish-speaking migrants.

3. Brazil is geographically a lot farther from the United States than El Salvador.

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Quote of the day: Cuba

Two plus two is four. Never five, much less six or seven, as we have sometimes pretended.

--Raúl Castro on the continued reform of the Cuban economic and political model

Of course, this conflicts directly with his assertion that Cubans will enjoy free access to a wide variety of social services.  It will be interesting to see whether the state opens the door for, say, small medical businesses for those with money.

I also assume that embargo supporters will argue that it is the reason this is happening.

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Juxtaposition: Bay of Pigs

Staunch anti-Fidelista Enrique Ros on why the Bay of Pigs was so great.

AND

Staunch pro-Fidelista Hugo Chávez tweeting about how the Pay of Pigs was great.

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Georgia bill

After some hope of moderation, the Georgian legislature passed an SB 1070-type immigration bill and the governor is expected to sign it.  It is ironic:

The bill helps the governor fulfill a campaign promise and sends a message to Washington, Mr. Robinson said: “States are picking up the tab for the gigantic cost of a problem that Washington won’t fix.”

Of course, this bill will become extraordinarily expensive both in terms of lawsuits and in terms of implementation, while not accomplishing its goals.  Georgia is therefore voluntarily increasing its own tab.

One silver lining is that Georgia, like Utah, has included a guest worker program.  This suggests that when we get to federal reform, a national-level guest worker program will be easier to pass.  No enforcement measures will work without that.

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Commodity exports and growth

The presidential election in Peru is more evidence of the fact that macroeconomic growth alone is not enough to understand whether people are becoming more prosperous.  Too many basically sit back and wonder why those Peruvians don't know what's good for them when they vote.

But the issue of growth comes back to an entirely unoriginal point I keep making, namely that commodity-driven growth is unstable. An article from the Brookings Institution, while even giddy about Argentina of all places, provides a glimpse into the problem.

Traditional Dutch disease has been linked primarily to the effects of high commodity export prices or volumes in one sector at the expense of other sectors. The symptoms are already apparent in commodity exporting countries like Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Colombia, where the volumes of non-primary net exports have been falling rapidly and industrial output and employment are starting to dwindle despite solid GDP growth figures. 

The authors also discuss "financial Dutch disease" and argue that a bit of financial tweaking will largely address the problem.  History suggests otherwise.  Plus, growth alone says nothing about distribution of wealth.  In short, nice looking growth rates obscure problems with employment (not to mention the fact that the nature and wages of the employment is almost never discussed) and commodity dependence.  These are very old ideas and arguments, but so often get lost in the shuffle.

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Juxtaposition: economic reform

I kept going to the people and saying, "We're doing this because we have to save stability, and you just can't keep spending." Even [though] we had a very tight budget, we had to cut it more, simply because we had been hit by external shocks, and what he told us was don't put it off, do it, and explain it to the people, and the people will accompany you if you have credibility and you're taking the steps at the opportunity. If you put it off, if you want to finesse it and forget it and push it aside hoping that things will improve, you'll find it very difficult to apply; it's too late.

--Bolivian President Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada in a 2001 interview

We need to cut spending, address our insolvent entitlements programs and tighten our belt by doing more with less as Republicans propose in our budget. Americans don’t want their taxes raised, they want Washington to get its fiscal house in order, and I call on President Obama, Leader Reid, and Leader Pelosi to follow our lead in cutting spending and rule out raising taxes in our current economy.”

--Eric Cantor in 2011

Take a look at Bolivian political history to see how well that worked out.  A good post at The Monkey Cage is a reminder of what "the people" really want.

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New McCain immigration bill

If you want to see a non-serious and failure-guaranteed bill, then look at the new one from John McCain and John Kyl (courtesy of MicEvHill.com).  It is a five year, $4 billion plan to do more border patrol, more fencing, more National Guard, etc.  Like the Cuba embargo, the idea is that just more will finally do the trick without wondering whether the underlying logic is flawed.

And how to pay for it?  Take away money from other unnamed sources, but specifically nothing from defense.

IN GENERAL.—Notwithstanding any other provision of law, of all available unobligated funds, $4,030,000,000 in appropriated discretionary funds are rescinded.

It won't work, and from many past statements I think McCain knows that.  He and Kyl can use it as an argument for more enforcement even if it doesn't pass.  But it is also a convenient way to argue for taking away money from other projects that do work but you don't like so want to de-fund.

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Chile-China

CIPER Chile points out a Wikileaks cable the U.S. embassy sent in 2005, fairly dripping with paranoia about Chinese espionage.

China’s growing commercial, educational and military ties with Chile will increase its access to many areas of Chilean government and society. This, in turn, will increase Chile’s vulnerability to Chinese intelligence gathering activities. And – if used as a base for increased Chinese presence in the region – Chile may become a platform country in more ways than it ever imagined. End Summary.

No drama here.  Of more interest, though, is Craig Kelly's assessment of Chilean foreign policy.  It is the best example of the pot calling the kettle black that I have seen in some time.

Given its political “”shyness”", it is unlikely Chile will independently raise difficult issues of human rights violations, democratic processes, labor protections or environmental preservation for the time being, especially if it perceives its continued economic prosperity to be at risk.

This is, of course, precisely what the U.S. does, and has done forever, and it is just a basic articulation of realism.  That it is draped in a naivete argument makes it pretty insulting as well.

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Political effects of inequality in Peru

Provocative op-ed by Dennis Jett, former U.S. Ambassador to Peru.  The upshot is that when the distribution of wealth is highly unequal, people will vote for extremes, and that this can happen in the United States just as well as in Peru.

Income inequality in the United States is at an all-time high and approaching that of Latin America. Even though the tax burden is lower now than at any time since the Eisenhower administration, the rich here, as in Latin America, always insist they pay too much. Given the cost of running for office, the market economy ensures that the winners are the best politicians money can buy. The result is the current budget debate in Washington, where the discussion centers on how to dismantle the social safety net in order to cut taxes on the wealthy even more.

When any of this is pointed out, the reaction is that the critics are resorting to class warfare. But the war has already begun. Common sense and common purpose have already been victims of that war in much of Latin America. Now Peru has set itself back economically and politically by decades. America is on the same path to division and irrelevance. That process is a tragedy for Peru. It will be a disaster for the world if it happens here.

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SB 1070 blockage

The Ninth Circuit Appeals Court upheld the ban on enforcing parts of Arizona's SB 1070.  The decision highlights what many opponents have been saying for some time--states who make such laws will face considerable expense.  Jan Brewer is already asking for money:

Bottom line is that I'm going to ask everybody tonight to remember my legal defense fund, because this is not cheap, but we can win. So I want people to go to KeepAZsafe.com and help us fight this battle.

As study after study has shown, undocumented immigrants are far more safe than the average American.  In the context of a serious recession, then, it makes no sense to throw away money at the issue.  Indeed, that rationale is reaching into Georgia:

“There is no reason for us to be forging ahead on this to be simply the second state to go forward and spend millions of dollars litigating this issue,” Sen. Curt Thompson, D-Tucker, said during an impromptu news conference before the Senate vote. “It doesn’t produce jobs unless it is jobs for lawyers. ... The bottom line here is we need to let this process work its way through the courts.”

Eventually it will go to the Supreme Court.  And the country will have spent quite a lot on lawyers.

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Peru election

Populism is a reflection of, among other things, dissatisfaction with the status quo and established political parties.  In that context, media portrayals of the Peruvian election show a consistent contradiction.

As it currently stands, Ollanta Humala and Keiko Fujimori would go to a second round.  That could change as more votes come in, but the basic idea is the same.  Peruvians are not happy with the status quo and are open to potentially very radical change based more on individuals than on parties.

So CNN International's rhetorical question "Who will make the most of the recent combination of good macroeconomic management and high commodity prices?" is misplaced.  A more accurate question is why so many Peruvians don't believe "macroeconomic management" had any impact on them at all.  Or we have the Wall Street Journal: "financial markets fret that Mr. Humala might reverse the market-oriented policies that have helped turn Peru into one of the world's fastest growing economies." Bloomberg gets more to the point, though far down in the article:

Under Garcia, Peru created 2.5 million jobs and had its first-ever investment-grade ratings from Moody’s Investors Service, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings. A third of Peruvians still live in poverty, most of them in the Andean highlands where support for Humala is strongest.

This is an old, old story.  Marcoeconomic indicators look great, so the country must be doing all the right things and is held up as a model for others to follow.  So we are perplexed when a majority of people seem so dissatisfied.  The result is that we get the essential causal question backwards.  Instead of asking what effect populism will have on the economy, we need to ask how economic policy helped generate populism.

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Human rights in Honduras

The State Department's newly released human rights report on Honduras is a curious mix.  On the one hand, it has 47 single-spaced pages detailing a wide variety of serious abuses--acknowledgment of these abuses is commendable.  On the other, the report dances around assigning specific responsibility to anyone through creative use of the passive tense and vague phraseology.  One of my favorites comes right at the beginning: "There were instances in which elements of the security forces acted independently of civilian control."

Another good one: "The constitution and law prohibit arbitrary arrest and detention, but authorities at times failed to enforce these prohibitions effectively."

But sometimes they hit the nail on the head.  This is a good one: "The news media continue to suffer from venality, politicization, vulnerability to special interest manipulation, and weak professionalism in reporting and analyzing news."

At the very least, the catalog of abuses should give State Department officials pause before issuing glowing statements about the progress made by the administration of Porfirio Lobo.

As an aside, it appears Hugo Chávez has agreed to support Honduras' return to the OAS.  Clearly, seeing Juan Manuel Santos' relationship with Chávez as automatically negative for the U.S. is simplistic.

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Fox and drugs

For several years now, former Mexican President Vicente Fox has been a man on a mission: legalize drugs.  However, I would suggest that he get some better talking points.  In particular, you will not sway many people by saying that we might as well legalize drugs since we've legalized so many other things.

“We’re talking about the last frontier of prohibition. Tell me something else that is prohibited today? Abortion is permitted. Marriage between same-sex (people) now is permitted … smoking cigarettes is permitted, alcohol is permitted,” Fox said.

It is essentially telling people they should just grease up because it's a really slippery slope and you might as well enjoy the ride.

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Immigration debate in SC

To get a sense of how incoherent state-level efforts can be with regard to immigration, consider South Carolina. The Senate wanted to create a parapolice force, the Illegal Immigration Enforcement Unit, the legality of which has to be questionable.  How much would this cost?  Well, no one even bothered to guess.

Sen. Larry Martin, R-Pickens who led the effort to push the immigration bill through the Senate, said Thursday he did not know how the state would pay for the unit. He also did not know how much the fee would have raised.

The fee in question is one that would have taxed wire transfers, obviously aimed at immigrants. The problem is that this punishes the South Carolinian businesses who do the transfers, and they were unhappy enough to get the fee scrapped.

So where to get the money?

S.C. Rep. James Harrison, R-Richland, chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, said he did not think the fee was an appropriate way to pay for the immigration enforcement unit. He suggested money come from the state general fund.

Harrison challenged the Senate to find the money.

“If this bill passes through the House, the Senate still has the budget,” Harrison said. “If they want to fund it, they can put it in the budget.”

But when you're dipping into the general fund for a parapolice force of unknown cost, remember that South Carolina has a $877 million budget deficit.

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Ecuador ambassador kicked out

The Ecuadorian Ambassador the US, Luis Gallegos, has been proclaimed persona non grata in response to the same gesture by Ecuador to the U.S. Ambassador.  This is particularly unfortunate, as when he came to UNC Charlotte in January I had a really favorable impression.  Hopefully things will calm down soon and both can return.

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Broken immigration court system

The Chicago Tribune has a long, sobering, and troubling article about the immigration court system.  This gets way too little attention.  The court infrastructure is terrible, and leaves judges in a position of trying to make snap decisions about the lives of thousands of people.

Judges handle, on average, more than 1,200 matters a year, leaving them so overwhelmed they mostly issue oral decisions "that sometimes are not fully researched or based in law or fact," according to a 2010 report commissioned by the American Bar Association. 

This puts a strain on the judges themselves, who have to digest the details of cases rapidly, all of which have high stakes.  Even at that pace, people sometimes have to wait years to have their cases heard.

On Thad Gembacz's first day as immigration judge in Los Angeles, he had 1,198 cases. 

On his last day, a dozen years later, in 2008, he had 1,464. 

No matter how hard he worked, he says, cases kept coming "like a flow out of a spigot. You can't turn it off." 

As more restrictive laws are passed, this will only get worse without comprehensive reform, and that reform will have to address the court system as well.

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