Tuesday, March 01, 2011

Why Cuba Isn't Likely Next

I think Chris Sabatini has a really interesting take about why Cuba is not likely to be the next in a wave of dictatorial uprootings:

For the last two decades, from Eastern Europe to Egypt, none of the countries that has experienced a people's revolution has been under a U.S. embargo.  Though it is about to be the target of focused sanctions as a result of its bloody response to the protestors (and deservedly so) before the current uprising even Libya saw its sanctions ended in 2004 by the George W. Bush administration.  In the case of Libya --and in the past-- targeted sanctions tied to a specific act by the government can provoke a course correction or even collapse.  Over the long-term, though, sanctions actually seal a country off from the rest of the world and allow a government to dig in.

The inverse relationship between isolation and people's revolution is no coincidence. Contact with the outside world builds capacity and ideas insidious to even the most tyrannical regime.  

Add this to all the other many reasons that the embargo helps to block political change in Cuba.


Anonymous,  9:11 PM  

How long before some fool posts that Cuba is not a dictatorship?

leftside 7:29 PM  

Sabatini makes no mention that "political changes" are already well afoot in Cuba. Raul called it a 5 year process today. Major economic changes have already taken place and many more are on the way. Significant political changes will be rolled out in April at the Party Congress. Fidel is already tipped to be stepping down from Party leader. I think people certainly want change in Cuba, but it is complete nonsense to think that people want a counter-revolution and a return to capitalism. perhaps that is the main reason we have seen stability for 50 years? not some US policy that has resulted in the loss of at least $50 Billion dollars?

Anonymous,  10:19 PM  

well, that didn't take long.

Anonymous,  12:25 AM  

Don't know about Cuba but it takes a confederacy of dunces to declare US a democracy.

Anonymous,  12:26 AM  

Don't know about Cuba but it takes a confederacy of dunces to declare US a democracy.

Tambopaxi 11:54 AM  

Oh, it's a democracy, alright, it's just that it's a democracy of dunces...

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