Friday, December 04, 2009

Brazil and recognition

Dilma Rousseff, who is Lula's Chief of Staff, said that Brazil would have to take the Honduran elections into consideration.

"Em Honduras não estávamos discutindo eleição, estávamos discutindo golpe de Estado. Há uma diferença muito grande entre uma coisa e outra", disse Dilma

"Acho que esse novo processo aí [eleitoral] vai ter que ser considerado. Houve uma eleição"

In Honduras we weren't arguing about the election, we were arguing about the coup. There is a very big difference between one thing and the other.

I find that the new electoral process there will have to be taken into consideration. There was an election.

So how does that circle get squared? You do not want to recognize the coup, but recognizing the elections in part implies recognizing the fact that the coup succeeded. Its goal, after all, was to keep Mel Zelaya out of power until the elections.


Anonymous,  12:15 PM  

Rousseff is more than Chief of Staff, she is supposed to be Lula's choice to be the Worker's Party presidential candidate for 2010. Right now he election is between her and Serra (at least in the polls). So if she's 'opening the door' to recognizing the elections then it's clear where this is going.

Justin Delacour 1:20 PM  

Houve uma eleição

Well, sure there was an election, but that's not saying anything. The question is not whether Brazil recognizes that there was an election. The question is whether Brazil recognizes Honduras' election to have been legitimate under the not-so-free-and-fair conditions under which it was held. So far we have no real indication that Lula will recognize the election as legitimate.

The problem is that the United States and the Honduran establishment won't even throw Lula a bone. If they'd just let Zelaya take back over for the remainder of his term, I'm sure they could come to some sort of terms with Brazil. But, instead, the United States and Honduras have slapped Brazil across the face. First Hillary slapped Brazil when she started insulting a presidential guest in Brazil's embassy for --horror of horrors-- making his way back into his own country. Then the United States and the Honduran establishment slapped Brazil again when they failed to relieve the Brazilian embassy of its predicament by not reaching any sort of terms to restore Zelaya to the office to which he was democratically elected.

The problem here really goes beyond the specifics of the Honduran case. The problem here is that the United States and the Honduran establishment are treating Brazil as if it were a hemispheric upstart. They're not respecting Brazil. If the Obama Administration continues treating Brazil in this manner, it might just end up with some real problems on its hands.

Slave Revolt,  3:29 PM  

Well, looks like the empire and the Latin American rightwing keep digging a hole for themselves. They are digging their own grave, they have no policies that truely work to lift the people out of the neocolonial immiseration they have had to suffer for decades.

Everything these imperialists touch turns to crap.

And they thought that a house negro, Obama, would put a friendly face on age-old oligarch oppression.

What next, the Vietnamization of Colombia and an attack on Venezuela?

Yes, they ARE that stupid.

Democracy brought to you by Lockheed Martin, McDonalds, and Walmart.

Justin Delacour 7:36 AM  

On November 30, Greg wrote:

We will have to wait for the final numbers, but La Prensa reports the TSE announced turnout for the Honduran elections as 61%. That is now being reported widely...

The turnout question is therefore now answered. It is high enough not to deter recognition, and is significantly higher than 2005, when turnout was 45%.

Then Greg told us:

If the turnout number is lower, then I will correct it.

Actually, Greg, you have two turnout figures to correct. Turnout in 2005 was not 45%. It was 55%. And turnout in 2009 was at least 12% lower than the figure you reported. The TSE itself has now revised its own turnout figure down to 49%, but we still don't know the actual final tally. It may well be lower still.

As an academic whom people look to for reliable information, you have a responsibility to scrutinize the information you report and correct what you misreport. I'm baffled as to why you haven't already done so.

Anonymous,  8:27 AM  

"House negro?" Hey Slave Revolt, take your racist BS somewhere else!
As for respecting Brazil, the relationship between Brazil and US is based on recipricocity. If Lula wants to work with the US, instead of exploiting anti-americanism in his foreign policy, both sides have to work at it. His democratic commitment and moral legitimacy as a critic is undermined when he dances with Cuba, Iran and ALBA. Of course this is full well within his rights as Brazil is a sovereign nation, but he can't expect to criticize the US with roguish friends and not expect the actions to have consequences in the US-Brazil relationship.

Larry Catá Backer 2:01 PM  

Very useful posts and comments. There has been bad behavior by all parties as they jockeyed to control elections and electoral legitimacy. But Justin is right that Brazil now needs a graceful way to recognize the incoming regime without appearing to recognize the people involved in Mr. Zelaya's removal. It is too bad that the Truth Commission contemplated in the now abandoned deal can't be used for that purpose. For additional thoughts, see, Thanks.

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