Sunday, December 06, 2009

Yet even more on turnout in Honduras

CNN is now playing the turnout game, as TSE leaks more numbers that may or may not be accurate:

While the Honduran government has not released final turnout percentages for last Sunday's pivotal presidential election, a CNN analysis based on official figures shows that a majority of eligible voters cast ballots in the race.

The exact number -- 56.6 percent -- matters because the turnout may reflect how much trust the Hondurans placed into an election that took place under less than perfect circumstances.

Even how to calculate it is controversial (on the TSE's own confusion, see RAJ).

The initial turnout of 61 percent reported by the electoral tribunal was based on their projection of 2.8 million total votes, according to a tribunal news release. The figures that the tribunal gave CNN show that only 2.6 million votes were cast.

The electoral tribunal has reported even higher numbers because they strip some names from the voter rolls.

Reyes, the spokesman for the electoral body, said that some 1.2 million Hondurans were living in other countries and were not able to vote in the election.

Because they could not possibly vote, the tribunal has suggested that they should be excluded from tabulations. With this accounting maneuver, the participation rate comes out at 76.8 percent.

CNN's calculation used the entire voter roll because that is the way that the electoral tribunal tabulated turnouts in previous elections.

I love the term "accounting maneuver."

In all of this, though, there is one critical point. I have not yet seen an estimated number low enough to suggest implications for recognition. But of course we need to see the final official totals.


Unknown 2:55 PM  

Hey Greg, Al Giordano at Narco News ( has a great post up today, citing work by journalist Jesse Freedman that confirms that the figure for the official Honduran turnout was even less than 56.6% you mention. Instead, it seems that turnout was only 49.2%.

Again, this only further demonstrates what a sham this whole process is, and further makes a mockery of the US's position on this matter.

leftside 5:48 PM  

So the TSE leaked some information to CNN that is not yet publicly available? And on the basis of being given some numbers in a vacuum, a "CNN analysis" showed an exact figure of 56.6% voting?? This more meaningless propoganda from an election outlet who has already shown to have manufactured a number of 62% out of thin air (a TSE official has confirmed as much, off the record of course - in fear of his life). The 56.6 figure appears to be another lie as the published figures show that this figure can not be reached. As TSE's own published figures show (as cited by RAJ) 2,080,959 votes counted, which they say is 90.52% of the votes. This would project as a total of 2.3 million votes (2,298,894 votes) - a 47.8% rate (in line with the original projections by TSE's sampling firm).

Reyes, the spokesman for the electoral body, said that some 1.2 million Hondurans were living in other countries and were not able to vote in the election.

What is this guy talking about? Hondurans living abroad were most certainly able to vote. I watched them vote here in Los Angeles (as I protested).

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