Saturday, October 31, 2009

Honduras timetable

La Prensa has a PDF of the final agreement in Honduras. The current timetable:

Oct 30 (yesterday): The agreement goes into effect and Congress formally receives point five regarding whether Mel Zelaya should become president again.

November 2 (Monday): Creation of the Commission of Verification.

By November 5 (Thursday): Installation of a unity government.

There is no timetable for the congressional vote. From the OAS: "Naturally, I am sure the members of Congress will fully realize the importance and political urgency of these matters, and I hope they will act as quickly as possible." Zelaya thinks it will happen within a week or so.

From the Micheletti side: "Zelaya won't be restored."

From Zelaya: "This signifies my return to power in the coming days, and peace for Honduras."

Members of Congress will have many factors to consider when casting their vote. At the very core of the decision, however, is the question of whether they prefer a November 29 election that is peaceful, or one that is marked by polarization.


Anonymous,  10:10 AM  

When this came out I thought there was an agreement to return Zelaya to power, and that the Congressional vote was a mere formality. But based on subsequent declarations, including those of Shannon, it seems that's not the case and Zelaya could end up being denied the presidency. Could that happen?

Zelaya has already agreed that no matter if he returns to power or not the November 29 elections must be recognized and Shannon seems to be saying that as well. So maybe the Zelaya supporters will have to finally accept that there are other institutions in Honduras?

But even if he returns he will do so severely weakened, lacking control of even the armed forces and police. That's excellent news.

With a little luck this will be over soon and Zelaya will be but a distant nightmare.

Robert 1:10 PM  

As always, I am curious which side the bishops come down on this whole issue. As far as I know, they back Micheletti. If that is still the case, I find it hard to believe that they are going to let Zelaya back into the presidency.

The golpistas would be nowhere today without the express consent of the cardinals and bishops, I think that is pretty well established.

Enjoying the blog. FYI, I may occasionally steal a news item or two and post it on The Vatican Lobby--giving full credit, of course.

Justin Delacour 1:25 PM  

So maybe the Zelaya supporters will have to finally accept that there are other institutions in Honduras?

Completely retarded analysis. Zelaya's supporters already recognize that there are other institutions in Honduras. That's why they have protested the coup government's routine violations of their rights under the law.

The way that Gabriel uses the term "institutions" is completely cavalier and misleading. Ask any political scientist, Gabriel. Institutions are far far more than just the different branches of government.

With a little luck this will be over soon and Zelaya will be but a distant nightmare.

Uh, if you hadn't noticed, the last poll on the matter showed that Zelaya had the support of the majority of the Honduran population. You're dreaming if you think Zelaya's legacy will disappear from the political map.

Nell 2:17 PM  

Coup regime supporters are trying to pretend that Congress being out of session poses some kind of obstacle (Saavedra and Arturo Corrales at least, and possibly others).

But the Congress' own rules of procedure allow for a special session to be convened at the request of ten or more members (see comments here).

There are at least 17 members of Congress in resistance and a good many more who have reason to want to see this resolved before the election.

Nell 2:33 PM  

A commenter has posted the text of the agreement at Al Giordano's, for anyone who would find plain text more useful than the .pdf.

RAJ 2:51 PM  

We have posted a full translation of the Tegucigalpa/San Jose Accord here

Anonymous,  2:52 PM  


They still have to wait for the Supreme Court's opinion. Does Zelaya have the votes in Congress to return?

Anonymous,  5:41 PM  

The US is already lifting sanctions?

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