Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Micheletti's last gambles

Roberto Micheletti has said that there is no more reason to talk until after the elections. The United States is sending a high-level delegation (including Tom Shannon) to Honduras to push for a solution, and obviously Micheletti is betting that they will not put sufficient pressure on him to change his mind.

So we are back to square one, really, where the coup government simply sits and waits for the elections. A new Gallup poll shows that 73 percent of Hondurans believe the presidential election will help pave the way for reconciliation. An important question, however, is how they will view those elections if there is more repression, which may well result for the next month.

Micheletti is gambling that a majority of Hondurans have crisis fatigue, and therefore will look to the elections as a solution just to end it in some way. It is not a bad gamble, I suppose, especially given the country's economic problems. But as always, there is just no way to predict the outcome.

Days since the coup: 122
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 32


boz 8:04 AM  

I think "crisis fatigue" is the correct term for what I've seen in the recent polls. The vast majority of Hondurans want an end to the political crisis. They have differing opinions as to what the best way to resolve it is, but they agree they really want to move on from the current situation.

Nell 11:12 AM  

There is no link to the poll at the Gallup site; if anyone has a pointer, I'd welcome seeing the poll itself. As it is, there's no way to tell how the questions were phrased, when the polling was done, sample size, etc.

It's already gotten more publicity than than the GQR poll -- perhaps because of the Gallup brand, perhaps because it has the "right" answer to the elections question. Although not the headline, the poll reinforces the results of the GQR and COIMER & OP surveys: Zelaya has the support of a majority of Hondurans and is viewed as the legitimate president.

Nell 11:27 AM  

@boz: On your site, you say that the family of the kidnapped vice-minister of defense in the coup regime is blaming Zelaya supporters for the crime. Could you provide a cite for that? Thanks.

Nell 11:34 AM  

Greg, thanks very much for accurately conveying the phrasing of the poll's finding wrt the elections.

The La Prensa story boz links at his site appears to reproduce the actual question: si (o no) elecciones ayudarán a salir de la crisis

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