Wednesday, September 13, 2006

More thoughts on Latin American non-alignment

In response to yesterday's post, I received an email from John Hyatt, a former student of mine, who wrote that he thought Argentina might be another example of a country balancing Venezuela and the U.S. That is entirely logical.

It seems that the more hysterical the U.S. becomes about Chávez, the more Latin American countries have to gain, because it gives them leverage. Thus, a former UN Ambassador writes an Op-Ed (via The Latin Americanist) decrying the relationship between Chávez and Kirchner:

Kirchner must understand that any alliance with Chavez will be costly. The new Argentina-Venezuela axis should serve as a wake-up call to President Bush. Democracy is at risk in Latin America.

Kirchner can take this to the bank. The Bush administration already knows it has limited power to punish Argentina economically, and it needs allies in South America. So Kirchner can take Chávez’s money and even vote for him in the UN, then go to the U.S., talk nicely, and get something in return.

It reminds me a bit of World War II, when the U.S. courted southern cone governments because they had important natural resources (especially Chile’s copper) and were close to Germany. Argentina and Chile delayed declaring war, using their leverage as much as possible.

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Tuesday, September 12, 2006

Uruguay and a new Non-Aligned Movement

The NYT has an interesting article about how Uruguay is being courted heavily both by Venezuela and the United States, each of which is showering it with money and development projects. I’ve mentioned before how the left in Uruguay, even within the Frente Amplio government, is split. At the moment, the president is interested both in a free trade agreement with the U.S. and a closer relationship with Venezuela.

In this context, what really struck me is that the Non-Aligned Movement is currently meeting in Havana, but since the Cold War has been over for so long, it raises the question of what countries they are seeking to be non-aligned from.

In the case of Latin America, I’d say “non-aligned” would mean independent both from the U.S. and Venezuela, which are the only two countries constantly jockeying for position, seeking military advantage, doling out favors, calling each other evil, etc. This article would suggest that Uruguay is doing an excellent job of gaining benefits from both, while refusing to get sucked in too far.

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Monday, September 11, 2006

AMLO and the army

In some good news from Mexico, AMLO has said his followers will not block the military’s Independence Day parade this coming Saturday. He said that they respected the military, and that “most of the troops belong to the people.” They will move the tents out of the way for the parade, but no one knows whether they will be put back right afterward.

Boz had argued that AMLO would possibly start backing off, claiming victory while ratcheting down the disruptive tactics. Is this such an example, or simply a way to avoid a direct confrontation with the army? I'm not ready to hazard a guess.

Also, Michelle does a nice job of summing up the past several months in Mexico, centered on the theme of disappointment.

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Sunday, September 10, 2006

Baseball in Charlotte

There is a new website dedicated to increasing public awareness of the proposed plan to bring baseball back into downtown Charlotte. It comes on the heels of a public rally to do the same. There is a complicated land swap deal in the works, but it requires public support to pull it off.

Baseball here is weird. The Charlotte Knights, the AAA affiliate for the White Sox, don’t play in Charlotte. In fact, they don’t even play in North Carolina. Since 1989, they have played right over the border in Fort Mill, SC, I assume because it is cheaper.

I would love to get baseball downtown, so I signed the online petition. Going to Fort Mill is a hassle and a long drive, and for popular games (like July 4) the traffic is a nightmare because of a bottleneck. Plus, because of blue laws, if you go to a Sunday game you cannot buy beer.

So I’m keeping my fingers crossed.

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Saturday, September 09, 2006

My first podcast

My first podcast is now available for listening--the topic is immigration. I didn't time it exactly, but it is under 10 minutes. Thanks to Scott Phillipson, the technology guru at the College of Arts & Sciences, who got me set up. It's all a bit experimental right now, as few people have done them. When you click on the link (which I hope to beautify a bit over time) it'll take a minute or two, then come up in QuickTime.

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Friday, September 08, 2006

Ron Chernow's Alexander Hamilton

I finished listening to Ron Chernow’s biography of Alexander Hamilton, and loved it (this is what I often do when driving alone). I had known very little about his personal background before. The book is beautifully written, and the narrator—Grover Gardner--is excellent.

I just kept thinking it was ironic how barbaric, crude, and wasteful (in terms of human life) duels were, even while the participants saw them as the highest manifestation of good breeding and honor. Hamilton’s own son had already been killed in one, and Hamilton used the same guns when Aaron Burr killed him. What a tremendous waste.

The biography is clearly partial to Hamilton, but I think Chernow does a nice job of showing how his weaknesses caused him serious problems. He had both a massive ego and a massive sexual appetite, and at one point was blackmailed by the husband of a mistress. He was capable of amazing amounts of work (writing parts of The Federalist Papers extraordinarily quickly) and incredible ideas, but his drive involved directing insults to others, and landed him many enemies (many years later, his wife was still angry at James Monroe for his role in leaking papers that discussed one of Hamilton’s affairs).

It is also reading about the “founding fathers” (or as Joseph Ellis has put it, the “founding brothers”) that makes me wonder about the many current arguments claiming that today political debate is more polarized than ever. Although we want to lionize the country’s founders, some of them despised each other with a passion, they had surrogates write nasty and untrue articles about each other, they insulted each other constantly and in this case, they even shot at each other. What we see now is pretty tame in comparison.

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Pinochet

The wife of former Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet says he asks victims of his government to forgive him, “if he did anything wrong.” The “if” is ridiculous, but even too much for pinochetistas, who immediately said this was just her own interpretation, as Pinochet himself has often declared he has no reason to ask anyone’s forgiveness.

This also comes precisely at a time when there is renewed debate over the death of former President Frei—an initial supporter of the coup who quickly soured on the dictatorship-- in 1982. He died during surgery, and many supporters maintained he was killed by the military government. A doctor who attended to him recently came out and said he believed that as well. I think this is the sort of thing that will never be resolved to everyone’s satisfaction.

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Thursday, September 07, 2006

Chile and Venezuela

The news from Chile is that Venezuela has sent 14 tons of goods to victims of a July storm. At the same time, the Venezuelan government has requested a meeting with the Chilean delgate to the Non-Aligned Movement meeting in Havana next week to discuss the UN Security Council vote. At the same time, the U.S. has been pushing Chile very hard on this same issue.

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Mariano Azuela's The Underdogs

I just read Mariano Azuela’s The Underdogs (which I am including in the sidebar), a novel of the Mexican revolution first published in 1915. Another professor had said he used it in his Latin American politics class, and in the past few years I’ve been incorporating fiction into my classes (this semester I am using Ariel Dorfman’s Death and the Maiden) so I thought I would take a look.

It was a very compelling novel, and though it lacks a plot as we normally understand it, that seems to be a metaphor for the war itself. No heroes, no nice stories that get neatly tied up, no relief from the war. The main character, Demetrio Macías, is lauded for his bravery but admits he has no idea why he’s fighting, and gets caught up in the rape, looting, and drinking that characterizes most of the soldiers in the book. Another character sums it up toward the end of the novel:

I love the revoluton like a volcano in eruption; I love the volcano because it’s a volcano, the revolution because it’s the revolution!

Later, Demetrio returns to his wife, who asks him why he keeps fighting. He throws a stone to the bottom of a canyon, and says, “Look at that stone, how it keeps on going…”

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Wednesday, September 06, 2006

Cuba

The Cuban state paper Granma has a message from Fidel and some photos. He looks quite chipper, really, for an 80 year old who recently had major intestinal surgery. Much of the message defended all the secrecy, though without really giving any reasons for it:

We should all understand that it is not convenient to systematically offer information, or to provide images of my health process.

Meanwhile, The New Republic has an article claiming that the Bush administration’s policy toward Cuba is more moderate than it appears. My impression, though, is that the article offers little evidence for it. Rather, it seems a call for moderation rather than proof that moderation already exists. It would take more to convince me that the U.S. government doesn’t plan to get deeply involved in a transition.

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Tuesday, September 05, 2006

The race for the Security Council continues

From the Associated Press—the latest on the race between Venezuela and Guatemala to win the UN Security Council seat. I had someone ask me in a previous post whether the vote was public or not. My answer was that I thought with most votes, it was private unless there was a specific request for it to be public. This article says explicitly that it will be private, but does not explain why.

I took a look at the UN Rules of Procedure. Voting is covered on pages 27-29. Rule 127 states that any representative may request a recorded vote. I haven’t yet found anything to suggest that this particular vote will be different, unless there is an assumption that everyone wants it private.

There is a quote from the Guatemalan Foreign Minister that I found interesting, and so characteristic of U.S. policy:

''In some countries I have to admit the U.S. has come on too strong in its opposition to Venezuela,'' Rosenthal said. ``We would be happier if they would not promote our cause so much because we would like to be our own promoter.''

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Monday, September 04, 2006

Defense conflict in South America

The Paraguayan government is expressing its concern about the bilateral defense accords between Bolivia (i.e. its neighbor) and Venezuela. In particular, they involve Venezuela helping Bolivia build a port (which they claim will be entirely commercial) near Paraguay, and upgrade a military base.

The U.S. is also involved, because the Paraguayan government has already voted to allow U.S. troops into the country, which has fueled speculation that the Bush administration plans to build a military base there, hence the efforts of Evo Morales and Hugo Chávez to beef up their own military presence in the region. For years, the so-called “Triborder Area” has been viewed as a haven for terrorist money laundering. Although it is an area traditional considered virtually lawless, there is quite a lot of debate about whether the threat is being exaggerated.

Unfortunately, I think Presidents Bush and Chávez are once again stoking up unnecessary conflict.

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Sunday, September 03, 2006

Day in the life of Hugo Chávez

Wake up. Put on red shirt. Announce foiled coup and/or assassination plot. Think up new name for George Bush (the latest is “Mr. Devil”). Announce again that you’d like to be president forever. Take a quick flight to do an oil deal and hopefully get another vote for the Security Council seat (the latest is Angola). Give Fidel a call to see how he’s doing. Go to bed. Repeat.

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Saturday, September 02, 2006

PRD strategy

As has been widely reported, members of the PRD prevented President Fox from making his State of the Union address yesterday. Although I’ve disagreed with him in the past, I have to agree with Ricardo on this one—I just can’t see how this does anything but make AMLO and the PRD look bad. So far, Fox has handled it pretty well, so it may simply reinforce support for the PAN, depending on how Calderón reacts once he is president.

In a recent post, I mentioned the process of democratization in Mexico. Especially if the government’s response continues to eschew violence (I think the minimal amount of violence on both sides is noteworthy) this could ultimately strengthen collective commitment to democracy, as people consider the importance of loyal opposition.

Or maybe I’m just optimistic on a beautiful, clear and cool September morning.

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Friday, September 01, 2006

Padres trade Kottaras for Wells

The Padres acquired David Wells (again) from the Red Sox, and it’s reported that we’re giving up catching prospect George Kottaras. I’m not sure about this trade. The argument is that although Wells’ season numbers stink and he’s been hurt, his last several starts have been pretty good. It is also a popular move in the clubhouse.

I guess I’m just dubious about these late season pick-ups that give away top prospects, especially for a pitcher who is so old (Wells is 43). Although Kottaras’ numbers aren’t so hot this year, he can put up good AVG, OBP, and SLG numbers, and he’s only 23. Even if we wanted to trade him, we probably should’ve been able to get more in return.

If Wells pitches well and the Padres make the playoffs, then I’ll be happy to eat my words. Padres RunDown also takes a look at the trade, and how the Red Sox managed to increase the price tag.

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Thursday, August 31, 2006

Nothing is happening in Cuba

The Miami Herald runs a non-story story, or maybe we can call it a story about why there’s no story. The essential point is that for the past month, everyone has been looking for clues about Fidel’s status, about Raúl’s role, and about political transition in Cuba. Speculation has run rampant, and there are more experts on Cuba than you can shake a stick at. So ultimately what has happened?

Nothing.

I won’t even go into detail about all the usual suspects they round up to talk about the nothingness.

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Wednesday, August 30, 2006

AMLO's options

Check out Bloggings by Boz for a good analysis about how AMLO can accomplish some of the goals of his movement while abandoning his current strategies. I agree that his most difficult and most immediate task is to end the street protests—he’s painted himself into a corner with all his talk of a parallel government, and so he has to figure out how to convince his followers that this is not simply a concession to the powers that he has labeled as irredeemably corrupt.

At this point, I might feel more sympathy for AMLO if not for the fact that in recent years Mexico has been undergoing a process of real democratization. The PRI’s grip on power was pried loose, elections (though obviously still imperfect) have been the cleanest in history, the military remains out of politics, and Congress is no longer a rubber stamp. The country does face daunting problems, but democratization has been taking place. Creating a parallel government in the streets—and this will inevitably lead to conflict--will be a step backward. As I’ve written, AMLO has been getting blasted in the U.S. press, and I hope he is able to prove it all wrong.

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Tuesday, August 29, 2006

The Latino Health Paradox

The L.A. Times has a story on a fascinating topic--the “Latino health paradox.” We have a tendency to assume that immigrants are poor and unhealthy, and therefore flood our E.R.s. But study after study (including my own work on Charlotte) has found that Latino immigrants are healthier than the rest of the population, and that in particular Latino women have fewer low weight babies and fewer premature babies.

My dad has done research on this as well (another is Rubén Rumbaut at U.C. Irvine). In fact, work on this topic has been done for so long that I remember as a teenger, making extra money by coding health questionnaires for my dad. One important conclusion is that once people are here in the U.S. for a while, they gradually lose those good health indicators. A traditional Mexican diet is much healthier than ours, but once here, people have more access to fast food and other cheap sources of empty calories and refined sugar. Interestingly, women who live in Latino enclaves tend to remain healthier, because they retain those healthier lifestyles. Then the children and grandchildren of those immigrants are far more likely to drink, take drugs, smoke, and get fat.

Maybe that just means they’re assimilating.

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Monday, August 28, 2006

The Mexican election saga

From Reuters: Mexico's Federal Electoral Tribunal has tossed out most of AMLO's charges of electoral fraud. It fell short of declaring Calderón the winner (by law it must declare a winner by September 6) but that is a done deal now. The PRD has already said that Calderón would have to govern "under siege." Soon enough, we will see what that means in practice.

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Baseball

Only the extreme weaknesses of the NL are keeping the Padres’ hopes alive. Yesterday, Jake Peavy got creamed by the Rockies, and is now 7-13 for the year with a 4.51 ERA. What's going on, Jake?

Plus, our lineup has some serious holes. I am still not sure why we signed Manny Alexander, who is hitting .143 (and his lifetime average is a mere .231). We couldn’t do better than that? And we keep playing Mark Bellhorn, who is also under the Mendoza Line.

Despite our 66-64 record (and a horrible 33-36 at home) we’re only 2 games behind the Dodgers and 0.5 behind the Reds for the wild card. So who will ultimately limp into the playoffs and then likely lose to the Mets?

One other baseball note--Padres Rundown has great analysis of the minor leagues. Right now it seems to be slim pickings.

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Sunday, August 27, 2006

Illegal immigration and U.S. policy

The Charlotte Observer is running another series on illegal immigration, and the first installment focuses on remittances. I read the beginning with some disbelief:

To curb illegal immigration, the federal government has posted soldiers on the Mexican border, arrested workers at job sites, and talked about making it a felony to enter the U.S. without permission.

But it puts greater hope in a relatively unknown and unlikely strategy: increasing the amount of money immigrants send back to Mexico.

The Bush administration says the billions sent south each year can be used to build the Mexican economy, thereby reducing immigration. For the past five years, the government has worked with Mexico and money senders to reduce the cost of remittances, and increase the volume.

The problem with this argument is that it is based entirely on a speech given in September 2001 (before 9/11) by Presidents Bush and Fox, in which they expressed the goal of improving Mexico’s economy so that people would feel less compulsion to leave, and that remittances could be a part of the solution.

It is dangerous to build an analysis on a five year old speech (and pre-9/11 to boot) given at a photo-op. With no justification or evidence, the article explicitly states that this old speech is evidence that remittances are more important to the Bush administration than any type of immigration enforcement. Most statements the administration makes regarding remittances focus on their role in economic development, without linking them to immigration. For example, in 2004 the White House released a fact sheet on the issue, which does not mention reduction of immigration:

These hard-earned funds go directly to families and communities where they are used for improving the quality of life of the citizens of the hemisphere -- paying for school books, purchasing medicine, or starting a business.

So does the administration hope that remittances have the effect of improving conditions in Mexico so that fewer people leave? Yes. Is this a central part of immigration policy? No.

The article does raise the important debate about the role remittances can play in sustainable development, though only quotes one anti-remittance scholar in Mexico to frame the debate, which is in fact a vigorous one and not so not nearly as one-sided as suggested.

I find it frustrating to read these types of articles, because the immigration debate is so complex already without distorting it further.

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Saturday, August 26, 2006

Iain Pears' The Dream of Scipio

When I switched blog templates a while ago, I had neglected to save the book links, but figured I would start new ones. Here is the first—the link to the book is on the lower right sidebar.

I just finished and really enjoyed Iain Pears’ The Dream of Scipio, which follows three different characters in three different time periods, all in the same part of Provence. The link is that each sees himself as fighting for the protection of civilization—one as the Roman Empire is under assault in the 5th century, the next in the time of the Black Death (14th century), and the last under German occupation in WWII. Each also struggles to convince those around him that his strategy for combating barbarism (and anti-Semitism, which is another theme) will be the most effective. Despite these very different scenes, I found the narrative very smooth.

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Friday, August 25, 2006

Venezeula's Race for the UN Security Council

All of President Hugo Chávez’s globetrotting is paying off—he announced that China is backing Venezuela for the rotating UN Security Council position. In return, China will be helping to explore potential oil fields in Venezuela to continue meeting its demand at home.

Chávez is slowly but surely collecting important promises, even getting several countries at once (like Mercosur and Caricom). But all his traveling is garnering votes outside the region as well, such as Ghana, Zimbabwe, Mali, Syria and Russia.

The bottom line: there is no consensus candidate for Latin America, because the U.S. wants Guatemala (which has only a sprinkling of regional support, mostly from its Central American neighbors). This means the entire UN General Assembly must vote on it, and a 2/3 vote is required. If all countries vote (I do not know how common that is) then that total would be 90. The vote is in October.

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Thursday, August 24, 2006

Immigration

I was interviewed by Qué Pasa, the largest Spanish language newspaper in Charlotte, about my research on Lation immigration (sorry, it's only in Spanish). I was glad to have the opportunity to connect to the Latino community here.

In other news, Douglas Massey--a Princeton sociologist who has done an enormous amount of work on Mexican immigration--has a very good commentary at Cato Unbound. As he notes, so much of the immigration debate revolves around stereotypes.

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The Zapatistas and Mexican elections

Michael from my Intro to Comparative Politics class emailed me a good question—with all the furor over the Mexican presidential election, where are Subcomandante Marcos and the Zapatistas? Michael asked whether it seemed Marcos will become less popular for refusing to support AMLO’s campaign.

The main answer is that the Zapatistas don’t identify with AMLO or the PRD. Here is an English-language account from the Socialist point of view of how this attitude made many people uncomfortable, because the left was supposed to show solidarity. He led a tour, calling himself “Delegate Zero,” and his movement “The Other Campaign” as an alternative to the other candidates.

La Jornada interviewed Marcos soon after the election in July. His attitude was that AMLO won, but that there was little difference between any of the candidates, and the entire system (including all parties and the IFE) is corrupt.

In the presidential election, 49% in Chiapas voted, which was the third lowest of any Mexican state (Chihuahua and Guerrero were lower). The national average was 58.55 percent.

Now, of course, there is a new controversy in Chiapas in the gubernatorial election (see Fruits and Votes for analysis). Once again the Zapatistas appear to be absent. A winner won’t be declared until Sunday, but preliminary results show that only 44% of the population voted.

A reasonable conclusion, therefore, is that abstention in Chiapas mattered—clearly for the gubernatorial election, and to some degree (how much is difficult to discern) for the presidential. Marcos could therefore be a player, but that would mean entering mainstream politics, into the system that he has said for years is venal and corrupt.

So here’s the dilemma: stay pure, but marginalized, or become tainted and more influential. By rejecting AMLO, Marcos chose the former, and for those who believe that an AMLO/PRD victory could have effected real change, that decision may not be too popular.

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Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Bolivia's new ambassador

Evo Morales has named his ambassador to the U.S. Gustavo Guzmán is a respected journalist, but has no diplomatic experience. The article notes the other “unconventional” appointments President Morales has made, but given the fact that his movement swept out the old guard, by definition he has few allies experienced in government affairs. The choice of the new ambassador can also be viewed in a positive light, because—despite all the criticism aimed at him--he did not intentionally name someone hostile to the U.S. (which is, in fact, a tactic often favored by the U.S. goverment when it makes its own appointments for Latin America positions).

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Tuesday, August 22, 2006

Latin America-China relations

It is signed, sealed and delivered—Chilean President Bachelet signed a free trade agreement with China, after both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate approved it. It will go into effect within 60 days.

Meanwhile, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez is in Beijing, negotiating agreements for oil exploration and building a fiber-optic communications network with the help of the Chinese government.

There is no doubt that China’s economic influence in Latin America is growing. For a number of years, some have argued that this represents a security threat to the U.S., with the most prominent past example being all the rumors that the Chinese government was plotting to take over the Panama Canal.

I’m not convinced that the expansion of Chinese companies, trade deals, and investment translates into a security threat. Last semester, one of my students wrote a good paper on the topic, but my main critique was that he assumed that connection without adequately explaining it. At this point, it seems to be a natural result of economic growth in the region. I’m not even ready to see anything sinister in the Venezuela-China ties (unlike the Venezuela-Russia deals, which are wasting enormous amounts of money on weapons).

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Monday, August 21, 2006

First Day of Class

Today is the first day of the semester. I want to encourage my students to check out the blog, feel free to lurk if you like, but also please comment or even email me anything Latin America-related (broadly speaking) if you run across something you find interesting.

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Fidel and Adidas

In two previous posts, I had mentioned how odd it was to see Fidel Castro wearing Adidas. The NYT notes this, and talks to Adidas’ PR person, who notes that not only do they have a longstanding relationship with the Cuban Olympic team, but they also provide shoes to President Bush (I guess Adidas is fair and balanced).

I see parallels to Fidel wearing clothes produced by a huge capitalist multinational, and made by low-wage labor, to kids in the U.S. shopping at the mall wearing Che Guevara t-shirts. Maybe both cases suggest that even for Fidel Castro, the most important thing is to look cool…

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Sunday, August 20, 2006

An FTA with Uruguay?

On the heels of my post about the contradictions of anti-U.S. rhetoric and expanded U.S. trade in Venezuela, From Uruguay discuss how the Frente Amplio government (which was supposedly part if the "leftist wave" in Latin America) is schizophrenic in its discussions about an FTA with the U.S. President Vasquez is in favor, but his cabinet is split, and it’s never quite clear whether negotiations are truly going forward.

Yet again, this highlights the fact that the “left” in Latin America is far more complex than portrayed, even within countries. I know I harp on this, but I can't help it.

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Saturday, August 19, 2006

Mexicans voting abroad

I was talking to my dad about Mexicans voting abroad, and realized I didn’t know what the results were—he tracked down a press account and official data, which actually has been out there a while. For the first time this year, Mexican citizens could vote for president. After years of debate, this change was passed by the Mexican government, which (like other Latin American governments, which have been making or debating the same change) wants to keep contact with their expatriates, who funnel remittances back home.

But thus far, Mexicans in the U.S. seem to remain disconnected from politics, as only 1 percent voted. Of those, 58 percent voted for Calderón—no tie here. From the article:

Many of Lopez Obrador's supporters were poor Mexicans who immigrated illegally to the United States looking for a better life.

This is logical, though I haven’t yet looked at the IFE data. However, as Matthew Shugart has pointed out, poor Mexicans also vote for the PRI, with lower middle classes often voting PRD. I wonder if this pattern changes for immigrants. Given the hassle of requesting an absentee ballot, going to an official polling location, etc. it is also reasonable to argue that more recent, and poorer, immigrants, will also be less likely to vote in the first place. Maybe even less than at home.

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Friday, August 18, 2006

Planning for Pinochet

The Chilean army commander in chief, Oscar Izurieta, caused a stir in a television interview when he indicated (perhaps in response to the recent death of Alfredo Stroessner) that when Pinochet (now a nonagenarian) died he should receive a funeral with full honors. After the Minister of Defense and the presidential spokesman said it was inappropriate to bring it up, Izurieta backed down, and said he was only referring to what the army would do, not the government.

He also made the point that since Pinochet has not been convicted of anything, he should be presumed innocent. Although cloaked in very nice democratic language, that's rather tough to swallow for a man who was dictator for almost 17 years.

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Thursday, August 17, 2006

Willy Wonka and Paraguay

As has been widely noted, former Paraguayan dictator Alfredo Stroessner died, exiled in Brazil. The obits (such as the NYT) all note the tremendous repression and corruption during his many years in power.

The negative image of Paraguay even permeated popular culture here. My kids love watching the original Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory. In it, everyone thinks the last golden ticket has been found, by someone in Paraguay. Then it turns out the Paraguayan had counterfeited it. In another slap, according to Wikipedia (always use at your own risk, but for a movie reference I don’t mind):

When the South American newscaster holds up the photo of the fifth Golden Ticket "winner" (who is a fake) it is a picture of Martin Bormann. The joke was that Bormann was Hitler's right-hand man who, in theory, escaped and wound up in Paraguay.

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Colombia

Although the news of arrests of Colombian paramilitary leaders is certainly good, take a look at Plan Colombia and Beyond for a close look at Putumayo, in southern Colombia. The FARC and paramilitaries both remain active. Also disheartening is the general failure of crop substitution programs, which were intended to provide incentives not to grow coca.

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Wednesday, August 16, 2006

Latino immigration to Charlotte

For anyone interested, I've posted a research summary of my work this past academic year on Latino immigration to Charlotte. It just has some of the highlights, as I work slowly but steadily on academic articles.

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U.S.-Venezuelan trade

The NYT has an interesting look at U.S.-Venezuelan trade. Despite the anti-capitalist, anti-U.S. rhetoric, trade (even non-oil) has increased.

I found the following most remarkable:

With 10 offices and 1,000 employees in Venezuela, Halliburton recently won a contract to assist Petrozuata, a venture between Venezuela’s national oil company and ConocoPhillips, in extracting oil from fields in eastern Venezuela.

So the company that has become the symbol of the Bush administration is not only alive and well in Venezuela, but it is getting new contracts. Although oil companies have been hit in some ways (as has Microsoft), other multinationals like Mastercard, GM, and Ford are making good profits. It reminds me of the recent photos of Fidel Castro, lounging in an Adidas outfit.

Both the United States and capitalism generate fascinating love-hate relationships. Can’t live with ‘em, can’t live without ‘em.

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Tuesday, August 15, 2006

AMLO's apogee?

I’ve written about trying to figure out the perceptions and effects of AMLO’s protests. It is such a sensitive topic that it often seems difficult to consider objectively. Boz has some interesting numbers showing that although a majority of people in Mexico City believe fraud occurred and a recount should be made, over two-thirds think the protests should stop. (I haven’t seen nationwide numbers—this seems to be such a Mexico City-centric issue).

Meanwhile, Michelle points to conflict between the police and PRD supporters. Hardly the violence constantly predicted in the U.S. media, but still a potential sign of nerves fraying. Vivir Latino notes charges that AMLO opponents are infiltrating the protests in order to spark more conflict.

We continue to have protests blocking banks and government buildings (and previously some tollbooths as well). Ricardo summarizes AMLO’s plans, and how protests will consciously overlap with national celebrations hosted by the president.

I can’t help but get the feeling that AMLO has nowhere to go but down. I don’t see the depth of outcry as sufficient to sustain this scale of protests, and it is quite likely that people will increasingly get tired of them. I suppose, though, that such protests could remain a permanent fixture in Mexico City, very likely in diminished numbers. But at what cost for the PRD?

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Monday, August 14, 2006

Another Fidel photo

Via Poliblog: a photo of Fidel (in hospital bed), Hugo, and Raúl, along with a not-very-good sketch of Fidel. It is a bit bizarre to see these three, the most hated Latin Americans for the U.S. government, goofing around with big grins.

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Alfredo Stroessner

Alfredo Stroessner is in intensive care. The former dictator of Paraguay is 93 and lives in Brazil. I must admit I didn’t realize he was still alive.

When I teach courses on Latin America, I often get “Where are they now?” questions, and I think it would be interesting to look at where ousted dictators go, and why they end up in certain places. Stroessner was overthrown in 1989, at which time the new Paraguayan government requested that he be granted asylum in Brazil. Brazil gave him temporary asylum, which eventually became permanent. My guess is that the decision was made simply to avoid more instability, since Brazil shares a border.

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Sunday, August 13, 2006

Remembering in Argentina

From Jeff's blog on Buenos Aires--two posts on how the disappeared have not disappeared from the public consciousness. There are posters with photos of people who were kidnapped, as well as another demanding justice for Julián the Turk, responsible for some of the more truly disgusting human rights abuses during the dictatorship.

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Photos of Fidel

Via the Associated Press: a Cuban youth paper, Juventud Rebelde, has published photos of Fidel. Several things immediately struck me.

First, he is wearing an Adidas outfit. For a Communist, how weird is that?

Second, he has also clearly invested in Grecian Formula.

Third, if these photos are real, then he's looking pretty good.

Fourth, the state clearly plows a lot of money into this website, which is slick.

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Saturday, August 12, 2006

New travel rules

Today we get to see the new travel rules in action. From my sister-in-law, who flew with kids yesterday, we learned that you can bring a peanut butter sandwich, but not PBJ. You can bring juice for kids, but then have to drink some to prove it is not an explosive. We have conflicting reports about whether you can buy a drink in the terminal and bring it on board, and that may depend on the specific person you deal with.

Before long, everyone will just be forced to board wearing only a loincloth.

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Friday, August 11, 2006

Padre fan


This fan (my daughter Julia, at the game on Sunday) obviously isn't happy with the quality of play, though she did like the nachos. We managed to beat the Nationals in the 10th, but have lost every game since then. The Dodgers are now in first by a half game.

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Thursday, August 10, 2006

Important Argentina News

Via Vivir Latino: Apparently vasectomies are illegal in Argentina, but a man with 37 children is petitioning to get one.

According to Montevideo.com/EFE, the man works as a painter, and doesn't have the money to buy contraceptives because he says that "buying a box of condoms would be mean 'leaving his family without a kilo of sugar'". He also says he cannot control himself to abstain when he falls in love with a woman, and that he lived for 14 years with three wives under the same roof.

Here's what I don't get. Vasectomies are illegal in Argentina, but condoms and polygamy are perfectly fine?

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Tuesday, August 08, 2006

Cuba and immigration

After the news of Fidel's illness, various members of the U.S. government made a point of saying that Cubans should refrain from trying to make their way to the U.S., fearing the type of mass movement that has happened several times in the past (Mariel being the most famous).

But now there is news that the administration will soon ease up on the infamous "wet foot, dry foot" policy, which makes asylum a snap if you make shore, but difficult if you're caught in the water. The change will be to make the latter easier.

I am not here to defend "wet foot, dry foot"(which is a bizarre policy) but it seems to me that if you don't want people to start taking that very dangerous route to Florida, then this is not the time to broadcast that if you take the trek, the U.S. will more likely let you stay.

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Sunday, August 06, 2006

Baseball under the sun

As longtime Padres announcer Jerry Coleman would say, today is "baseball under the sun." We're heading to Petco Park in a few hours, and got lucky because we'll get to see Jake Peavy (against Livan Hernandez of the Nationals). I really like Peavy, though this season has been horrible--there is all kinds of speculation, much of which centers on his participation in the World Baseball Classic.

Even better, it is "kids run the bases" day, so my kids and their cousins will go down on the field after the game. This dad/uncle also plans on being down there.

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Saturday, August 05, 2006

Decision on Mexican election

Sometime today, the Tribunal will make its decision. According to Milenio there are three options:

1. Call for a ballot by ballot recount
2. Only recount disputed ballot boxes
3. Reject AMLO's petition

Of course, AMLO has said he will only accept the first option. The tent protest was meant to pressure the Tribunal to choose that option, which would then avoid the million dollar question: what happens if it is 2 or 3?

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Friday, August 04, 2006

More on Raúl

Today Granma is making a big point about Raúl's leadership qualities, with a story about his role in the attack on the Moncada barracks in 1953. How he assumed a leadership role because he thought Fidel had been killed, with a quote that he was just a "simple soldier" doing his duty. Maybe they figure Raúl needs a little public grooming before he makes his entrance.

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Mexico protests

As my previous posts have shown, I am interested in the very different perceptions of the AMLO protests. On the one hand, for example, the BBC says AMLO supporters were "digging in." CNN has news of how the protests blocked the stock exchange. On the other hand, Ricardo's Blog reports from Mexico City that the tents are largely empty. I'd love to see polls that might shed some light on the popular reaction to the protests, and some estimates on the current number of people participating in the tent protests.

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Thursday, August 03, 2006

Tony Montana

Is it a coincidence that now, just as uncertainty about Cuba is high, AMC is showing Scarface, the ultimate "crazed Cuban immigrant" movie?

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Raúl

The only update I've seen so far on Fidel is that Ricardo Alarcón (president of the Cuban National Assembly) told NPR yesterday that Fidel would not return to power for “some weeks.”

Raúl has remained out of sight, which of course fuels even more rumors (like he is busy planning Fidel’s funeral). I think we need to keep applying Occam’s razor, meaning the most plausible explanation will usually be the least convoluted. With this in mind, I actually agree with Roger Noriega (probably for the first time ever) when he speculated about Raúl:

"He's probably being careful not to be dramatic in asserting himself as a new leader," Noriega said.

However, if Fidel will be out for weeks, Raúl will need to show himself before long, or people will really start getting nervous.

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Wednesday, August 02, 2006

Viva Castro o no?

Rumors are just flying around about Castro. To go right to the horse’s mouth, so to speak, I went to Granma (the official state news organization) this morning but it had no updates at all. Instead, we get bits of news from travelers and dissidents. They report that there may be troop movements in Cuba, though this is not terribly surprising, since this is obviously a time when uprisings would be most expected and so the state will likely crack down even more on any signs of dissent.

The Cuban government released a statement in Castro’s name:

“The most I can say is that the situation will remain stable for many days before a verdict can be given,” the statement said. “In spirits, I find myself perfectly fine. The important thing is that the country is running perfectly well. The country is prepared for its defense by the Revolutionary Armed Forces and the people. Our compatriots will know everything at the appropriate time.”

Although many news reports label this statement as cryptic, I see it as fairly clear cut. He had major surgery, the outcome of which is always dicey for an almost 80 year old, Raúl is in charge, and we’ll tell you when there is more news.

Update: Later in the morning, Granma did release the full statement here.

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Tuesday, August 01, 2006

More on the AMLO protests

Following up on yesterday’s story about AMLO’s supporters in Mexico City, I am trying to figure out exactly how much life has been disrupted. There are now tents set up by AMLO supporters, and traffic is being affected.

The NYT headline says the capital is “paralyzed” and that tempers are “flaring.” The syndicated article in the Miami Herald says the entire city has been “brought to a halt.” It also includes the following, which is cut and pasted into every single article about AMLO:

While there've been no serious incidents so far, fears have grown that the protests could lead to violence as frustrations grow on both sides of the election dispute.

The L.A. Times is less dramatic:

City traffic snarled and business owners complained, but there was little trouble as hundreds of protesters made camp on the central square

According to Milenio, the head of transport in Mexico City said 200,000 people were affected, and that people should give themselves an extra 20-30 minutes to use Avenida Reforma. This is serious, but does not sound as dire as the U.S. media, yet the PRD is in charge in the D.F., so would naturally downplay it.

Is this going to seriously hurt the economy and cause violence? Or is it a peaceful protest that the media loves to portray as leftist agitation?

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The Big Fidel News

Fidel Castro is having intestinal surgery (apparently he has bleeding as a result of the stress of recent trips) and so has temporarily ceded power to his brother Raúl. The Latin Americanist has a good collection of links to different news sources as they’ve sought to interpret this. There have been interesting signs for a while.

I think it’s important to distinguish between Fidel being dead (rumors of which constantly abound--blogs spread them even further and faster) and being sick. He may recover from his surgery and we go back to "normal" though of course major surgery when you’re almost 80 is no laughing matter.

But there are so many unknowns. Raúl is not viewed as a strong leader—could this spark a power struggle? Who would line up where? I will watch with what I can only call morbid fascination. I say “morbid” because even if Fidel dies, the Cuban people are in for a very difficult ride, as the Communist Party, the Cuban military, the Bush administration, and Miami exiles all pursue their own interests. Shoot, Hugo Chávez might even get into the mix.

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Monday, July 31, 2006

AMLO and the U.S. Media

AMLO’s mass rally (over a million people) in Mexico City has led to the type of story in the U.S. media that we’ve come to expect. The article must constantly repeat that AMLO is “leftist” and then insinuate that violence is imminent.

The NYT’s first paragraph doesn’t mention AMLO’s name, but refers to him as the “leftist candidate.” It goes on to say:

So far, the protests and marches he has led have been peaceful, though he said Sunday that more acts of civil disobedience would be planned.

The second part of the sentence does not follow from the first. I guess the idea is that these crazy leftists must surely get violent at some point.

Now, on to an AP story running in the Miami Herald (and elsewhere, of course). The headline and first paragraphs say that AMLO wants to “blockade” Mexico City, with dire consequences:

If Lopez Obrador supporters heed his call, blockades could have a catastrophic effect on already chaotic city traffic, hurting downtown commerce.

The problem is that I cannot find reference to any blockade. In fact, the article admits:

The leftist asked his followers not to "invade public spaces" and demonstrators said they wouldn't block streets, but Lopez Obrador also apologized in advance for "any inconvenience our movement might cause."

So “the leftist” is actually telling people not to be disruptive. The blockade idea apparently came from a random AMLO supporter the reporter interviewed on the street. Michelle has a link to Milenio, in which AMLO:

Propuso una asamblea permanente hasta que resuelva el tribunal el fallo. Invitó a sus simpatizantes a, “que permanezcamos aquí, día y noche, hasta que tengamos presidente electo”.

That is not the same as a blockade—it says the protestors should “remain here, day and night, until we have a president-elect.”

Yes, it is a tense situation, and I cannot claim that no violence will ever occur, but it’s crazy that day after day, articles in the U.S. media assert that violence and/or mayhem is just about to happen, and each day they've been wrong. In fact, I think it’s noteworthy that all these massive rallies have been non-violent.

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Sunday, July 30, 2006

Six Months

I just realized that it's been six months since I started the blog, so I thought I'd change the look. I forgot to save the code for the books I had listed, but I figure I will start fresh again.

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Cuban oil

The issue of offshore Cuban oil has been percolating for some time, and a reporter asks whether it might finally end the embargo, since the U.S. is searching (albeit half heartedly) to end its dependence on Middle Eastern oil. There are already bills in both the House and Senate to exempt oil from the embargo.

Of course, the Cuban American National Foundation and Floridian members of Congress are opposed. The response by the CANF executive director, however, struck me as odd:

"Those who would advocate for ... allowing U.S. companies to drill off Cuba lose sight of how that would damage our ability to press the Cuban government on other issues, such as human rights."

This assumes we have any leverage with the Cuban government at all—I would argue that our Cuba policy over the last 40+ years has put us in a position of having zero leverage, so we can’t have less than that. I’d be more inclined to listen to the environmental concerns, as well as the idea that we should more aggressively pursue alternate sources of energy rather than just drill anywhere we can.

With regard to U.S.-Cuban relations, however, common sense usually goes out the window. I can’t see that (or our current policy) changing anytime soon.

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Saturday, July 29, 2006

Venezuela and the UN

Here is a solid NYT piece on Venezuela's bid for the UN. It discusses the dynamics of the eventual vote, but I wish it had more on the attitudes of specific Latin American governments. I see most of South America going for Venezuela, but I am less sure of Central America (since Guatemala is the U.S. candidate), Mexico, and the Caribbean.

If the region cannot designate a country, then the entire UN General Assembly will cast ballots, and winning requires a 2/3 vote. Who knows what will happen between now and October, but if I had to bet, I'd put my money on Venezuela.

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Friday, July 28, 2006

Venezuela's arms deal

It is now official: Venezuela has agreed to pay $3 billion for a variety of Russian jets and helicopters, on the top of the already purchased rifles, with rumors of future surface-to-air missiles in the future. The U.S., of course, opposes the entire transaction.

This depresses me on at least two levels. First, $3 billion is an enormous amount of money in a country beset by serious socio-economic problems, and weapons don't feed people or create jobs (well, they will in Russia, but not in Venezuela). Second, if Venezuela were viewed as an ally, then the U.S. government would be happy to sell those weapons itself. Our claims that "the arms purchases planned by Venezuela exceeded its defensive needs" rings rather hollow.

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Thursday, July 27, 2006

The U.S. and Chile

The U.S. continues to pressure the Chilean government not to vote for Venezuela in its bid for the UN Security Council—the Defense Minister reported that Rumsfeld made it clear that such a decision “wouldn’t make any sense” (no sería comprensible). This prompted Bachelet to make a speech insisting that her government would not bow to any external pressure. Chilean politics are also involved, because Bachelet’s approval ratings have dropped and she is facing a gas crisis with Argentina, so it was an opportune time for a tough speech.

However, this is another example of our incoherent Latin America policy. The Bush administration claims to want democracy and free trade in the region, and Chile is an example of both. Yet we are punishing Chile, both with regard to the International Criminal Court and Venezuela. Leaning on Bachelet has made it far more difficult for her to vote against Venezuela, because no one wants to be viewed as following orders from Washington. As so often happens, U.S. actions may result in the outcome—Venezuela winning the seat—that it explicitly sought to avoid.

With friends like these, who needs enemies?

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Wednesday, July 26, 2006

Latest on immigration reform

The Washington Post got wind of a new Republican proposal intended to bridge the gap between the House and Senate. The idea is that no immigration laws would change for at least two years, while the government puts new security measures into place (fences, biometrics, the whole nine yards). Ultimately, people here illegally right now could eventually become citizens, though only after a minimum of 17 (!) years. But before even that began, the president would have to “certify” that the border was “secure.” What “secure” means is anyone’s guess.

I tend to agree with the following paragraph:

The impasse will not be easy to break. The push for a pre-election compromise has lost its sense of urgency, as both sides privately calculate that no deal might be the best politics and produce the best policy.

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Academic journal reviewers

In a previous discussion about my rejected article, I mentioned the idea of creating a typology of reviews. After thinking about it, I decided instead to create a typology of reviewers. I put them in alphabetical order, though my own biases will be immediately obvious.

Also, perceptions are important. I am willing to bet that most of us consider ourselves fair reviewers, while some of those we review would beg to differ.

The Admirer – a rare bird, but not unknown, this reviewer loves the manuscript and recommends publication with only editorial revisions. These are fun to get. If you do get one, then enjoy it while you can, because your next round of reviews may include one from Simon Cowell (see below).

The Contrarian – this type of reviewer explains how the entire manuscript should be rethought, reconceptualized, and rewritten. Unless you conform, your article is toast. These are difficult reviews to use, because you have only two choices: follow the orders or ignore them entirely.

The Destroyer (aka The Simon Cowell) – he is, of course, the insult-hurling judge on American Idol. I know a senior person (who I actually like very much personally) who shares the same mentality. These reviewers believe that bluntness is the best way to get through to people; if an argument is weak, then don’t mince words. Mixing praise with critique (a la Paula Abdul) may lead people to think their work is better than it really is. Instead, we should make sure bad manuscripts are shoved in a drawer forever. However, this easily crosses over into craven insults—I have both received and heard about the insulting (and even absurd) things reviewers will write under the cloak of anonymity.

The Scholar – by this I mean someone who is genuinely interested in the advancement of ideas and knowledge, and who therefore goes over the manuscript carefully, provides citations and specific examples when critical, and gives the author specific suggestions, even when recommending rejection. These suggestions can be greatly beneficial even in the case of rejection, at which point you need to improve the article and find another journal.

The Slacker – this is the sort of reviewer who likely put off the review until the last minute, or just feels too busy to bother much with it. They are generally very short, vague, and negative (the reviews, not the person, though maybe that holds as well). It suggests they glanced over the article, decided immediately it was not up to snuff, and scribbled out their initial impressions. They are singularly unhelpful to the author, who cannot make use of them.

The Unfocused – this reviewer focuses not on the main argument, but on other specific parts of the manuscript that interest him or her more. These reviews are generally easy to address, because they do not entail any wholesale changes.

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Tuesday, July 25, 2006

Padres need a third baseman

The Padres have been floundering at third this year, and Vinny Castilla was recently released. Geoff Young has a nice chart listing the potential candidates. His preference is Morgan Ensberg, though I wonder what the price would be. For best value he chooses Rich Aurilia, who I might accept even though he was a longtime Giant.

To highlight this problem at the hot corner, he is even selling "Will Play Third Base For Food" t-shirts.

Meanwhile, the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that we're scouting Greg Maddux, though it doesn't say whether anything has happened beyond that.

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Getting a Ph.D.

I know a good number of my students read the blog, and for them in particular I recommend the discussion by Michelle Dion and Chris Lawrence about the decision to get a Ph.D.

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Monday, July 24, 2006

Choosing the right academic journal

One of Michelle’s recent posts about her travails in getting a particular article published got me thinking about a topic that, to my knowledge, is rarely discussed: how do you go about choosing a journal? Especially for graduate students and untenured faculty, this is a critically important decision, because choosing the wrong journal can lead to long delays.

I think it is an art more than a science, thought you can use some empirical evidence to help you out. It can actually get quite complicated. These can be tweaked depending on the discipline, but as I think of journals, I need to assess:

--if the journal has published on my topic (and even whether I am engaging a debate surrounding previous articles in the journal)
--if the journal has recently published too much on my topic
--if the methodology meshes with the journal (though a good many journals are open in this regard)
--whether I should aim at a Latin America journal, a Political Science journal, or a “developing world” journal (this can be quite important, because each has different expectations and audiences)
--whether the journal is acceptable to the department in terms of merit pay, tenure, and and/or promotion (of course, this varies widely)
--whether changes in editorship have changed the orientation of the journal (personal note—at my own journal I am open to any topic on Latin America, regardless of discipline, methodology, etc.!)

I always have a journal in mind when I embark on a paper. This does not mean I always choose well—on the contrary, there have been times (as with my last submission) where after reading the reviews, I realize the given journal had not been a good choice. Sometimes I change my mind halfway through writing, but I try to keep my potential journal audience in mind as I write.

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Chávez in Belarus

Hugo Chávez is in Belarus as part of his current international tour:

“Belarus is a model of a social state, which we are also building,” Mr. Chávez told reporters at the Minsk airport at the start of a two-day visit. “We must defend the interests of the individual and not the hegemonic interests of the capitalists, wherever they may be, in Europe or Latin America.”

Now, when I think of countries in which "the interests of the individual" are defended, Belarus really doesn't come to mind.

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Sunday, July 23, 2006

The name game

Amazingly, the congressional debate over immigration continues to reach new levels of absurdity. The latest is that House Republicans are trying to pretend that only Democrats support the Senate bill. Thus, what is normally referred to as the “McCain-Kennedy” bill has been transformed into the “Reid-Kennedy” bill, replacing John McCain, who has been a vocal advocate, with Harry Reid, the Democratic leader who in fact at one point tried to scuttle it.

Of course, this convenient amnesia also ignores the fact that President Bush favors the Senate version. I suppose the strategy revolves around the basic idea that if you say something enough, then people will start to believe it.

I had to chuckle at McCain’s response to the issue:

Asked at a recent news conference how he felt about the bill’s name and being purged from it, Mr. McCain said, “You can call it a banana if you want to,” as long as it eventually becomes law.

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Saturday, July 22, 2006

Mercosur and Venezuela

Venezuela is now a member of Mercosur, which will set in motion all sorts of interrelated dynamics. For example:

--Mercosur is now officially backing Venezuela for the UN Security Council seat.

--there will be a lot of hand wringing in the U.S. about this "leftist" bloc (wait for all the editorials), but presidents of Mercosur countries are all very different. There will be serious jockeying to determine Mercusour's orientation.

--Mercosur will likely become a very political organization, which it never has been.

--There will be immediate efforts--mostly on the part of Brazil and Venezuula--to become the de facto leader of the organization. Both Chávez and Lula view their countries, and themselves, as regional leaders. I wonder whether either can accept sharing. Kirchner could very well also be in the mix.

--Mercosur has the opportunity to achieve real benefits for its member citizens, and to be a counterbalance to U.S. influence, but because of the above issues will face the threat of constant squabbling and disastrous infighting.

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Friday, July 21, 2006

Tubes

This has nothing to do with Latin America, but I laughed so much I could not resist. Senator Ted Stevens gave a speech in which he referred to an email as an "internet" and said the internet was a "series of tubes." Then somebody made a parody video on YouTube.

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Matthew Pearl's The Dante Club

I finished Matthew Pearl’s The Dante Club, which is a fun read. It is historical fiction, set directly after the U.S. civil war, where a serial killer is committing murders in styles that mirror Dante’s Inferno. This is a time when Henry Wadsworth Longfellow and other prominent intellectuals (who comprise the "Dante Club") are doing the first American translation of that work, so they set out to solve the mystery.

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Thursday, July 20, 2006

Free Trade Agreements and Latin America

While Boz points to India's pursuit of a free trade agreement with Peru, and other Indian deals with Bolivia and Ecuador, the Chilean Chamber of Deputies just approved a free trade deal with China. It will now move to the Senate for a vote. It would be the first non-Asian FTA for China.

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More on Little Tony

Yesterday, Tony Gwynn, Jr. got his first major league hit, a pinch hit double to right, at age 22. Tony Sr. got his first hit, also a double to right, on the same day 24 years earlier, at age 22, with Tony Jr. in the stands in utero.

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Wednesday, July 19, 2006

Terrorism

Not too long after writing my previous post, I read this from Plan Colombia and Beyond. If you are on the left, then you call your political enemies “fascists.” If you are on the right, then you call your enemies “terrorists.” Since the Bush administration, and Republicans generally, hate Hugo Chávez, they now claim Venezuela is a “terrorist hub of the Western Hemisphere.” This came from a hearing of the House International Relations Subcommittee on International Terrorism.

The evidence showed scant support for the terrorist claim, but plenty for stupidity in both governments.

In an unrelated issue, the blog also mentions something I didn’t know—one of the members of the subcommittee, Rep. Jerry Weller (R-Illinois) is the son-in-law of former Guatemalan dictator Efrain Rios Montt, who I recently discussed.

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Fascism

In the “huh?” category I put the following comments by Hugo Chávez, referring to President Bush’s now infamous words with Tony Blair:

''His cynicism, his class and his fascist personality were unmasked before the world,'' Chávez said. ``He doesn't care about the world, whether everyone dies.''

For anyone who happened to miss it, here is the main Bush comment, with everyone up in arms because he said the word “shit.”

“See, the irony is what they really need to do is to get Syria to get Hezbollah to stop doing this shit, and it's over.”

This comment certainly demonstrates that the president is incapable of using the word “irony” correctly. How it reveals him to be a fascist is less clear. I must admit that the casual use of “fascist” is a pet peeve of mine. Bush has authorized all sorts of objectionable—even impeachable—policies, but I feel like it’s an injustice to compare our situation to Nazi Germany or Franco’s Spain. The word “fascist” has been thrown around so often that it has come only to mean “politician I don’t like.” The word “terrorist” is heading in the same direction.

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Tuesday, July 18, 2006

Study on Latinos in Charlotte

The UNC Charlotte Urban Institute released a needs assessment study of the Latino population in Charlotte—the Institute funded my work this past year, but I wasn’t involved in this particular study, which did not address politics. For anyone interested in new growth Latino immigration or Charlotte specifically, it is worth a look. Kudos to Jana Harrison, the Senior Associate Director of the Institute.

One thing I found particularly interesting is that although there are some services for the Latino community, they are not located where that population lives. Perhaps there is an assumption that Latinos would live downtown, which is where the services are, but they don’t. Nice maps too, from my colleagues in Geography.

Also, in contrast to the stereotypes flying around about the Latino population, it shows many signs of stability. For example, 65 percent of respondents in the Institute’s survey were married, and 41 percent owned homes (though, as they note, the transient population would be under-represented in their survey, so that number may be a bit inflated). Amazingly, although 78 percent of the Latino population makes $40K or less a year, one quarter of those still owned their home. One problem with this, as the study notes, is that they may be overextended—in fact, foreclosures have been a major topic here in the past year.

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Monday, July 17, 2006

Immigration reform falling apart

Thanks to Michelle for pointing out in comments that the Mexican press has quoted President Fox as saying immigration reform is dead for the year. His source was President Bush.

This was apparently a press conference with Fox, so I am surprised no one in the U.S. press picked it up at all (do reporters from different countries talk much?).

Meanwhile, even Fox News conservatives are getting fed up. As I did a quick google search to see if this news was picked up in the U.S., I found this commentary lamenting how the Senate voted to build a 370 mile wall, but also voted not to pay for it.

Update: The U.S. press did pick it up.

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Thoughts on academic journal reviews

I got a letter (amazing how many journals still use snail mail) informing me that one of my article manuscripts was rejected. I got two reviews, one of which was useful, and one of which was much less useful. I like this paper, but there are a number of things I need to work on.

That alone isn’t very interesting--it happens to all of us. In my eyes, more important is something I think is too common, namely sloppy reviews. Now, we’re talking about a very good journal, so one would expect good reviewers. But one of the reviews was literally riddled with typos, suggesting it had been hammered out quickly. Also, it committed what I think is a reviewing sin, which is not to back up claims. In my paper, I wrote something to the effect that “X has been neglected in the literature” and then discussed that. The reviewer wrote “X is *not* neglected” but failed to provide even one example. I would think that if the reviewer were that sure, he or she could come up with at least one example off the top of their head. If you can’t, then it suggests you are less sure than you claim. It may simply be that the reviewer felt the point was so obvious that he or she need not prove anything to such an obvious dullard as myself. The ultimate result, however, is that the review was almost entirely unhelpful to me.

Maybe sometime I’ll come up with a typology for types of reviews. I’ve received a wide variety, from glowing to absolutely nasty. I think my favorite might be a review for my textbook draft, where the reviewer said that he or she would probably adopt it, but needed to make sure it had a nice looking book cover.

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Sunday, July 16, 2006

Chile in a bind about Venezuela

The saga of Venezuela's efforts to get on the UN Security Council continues. The Venezuelan ambassador to Chile formally requested Chile's vote. This puts President Bachelet in a bind, because she had talked about finding a "consensus" country, but no such thing exists, and had hoped to vote against Venezuela to show solidarity with Peru, but now Peru seems to be moving toward voting for Venezuela despite Hugo Chávez's role in the presidential election. The article in La Tercera suggests that her only other option is to abstain. It seems that the main reason not to vote for Venezuela is that the U.S. has made clear it will react. Or at least I can't immediately think of another.

Along those lines, that same link to La Tercera describes how the Chilean Defense Minister is in Washington, in part to lobby Rumsfeld not to punish Chile (by cutting military aid) for refusing to grant waivers to U.S. citizens with regard to the International Criminal Court. No doubt the U.S. will link the UN issue to that.

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Tony Gwynn Jr.

The Brewers called up Tony Gwynn Jr., who made his major league debut, going 0-1 with a groundout. He has some good minor league numbers, and looks like his dad did in the early part of his career (i.e. thin and athletic). Let's hope he does better than that other son of a former Padre, Fernando Valenzuela Jr. He's also a San Diego State alum, so all the more reason to hope he does well.

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Saturday, July 15, 2006

Congressional work on immigration

Even if Congress passes no immigration bill this year, it is already working to appropriate funds for more enforcement. We can forget coming to a sensible solution on immigration quotas or a guest worker program, but rest assured because we’re passing laws on jail sentences for tunnels. This last was a Feinstein-Boxer brainchild, demonstrating that even prominent Democrats are willing to avoid the difficult issues in favor of things that sound tough but will achieve little.

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Friday, July 14, 2006

Jobs in academia

Especially as a result of reading blogs, I periodically think about how strange academia can be, even capricious. Reading Post Ph.D. Blues and In a Way I am MetamorPh.D (and I am sure there are many more) provides a reminder of how it is easy, as a graduate student, to feel like getting the Ph.D. will suddenly open doors, whereas the truth is that the job market is very tough and unpredictable, to an extent that few people outside the profession understand. Failure to get a tenure track job can even lead to a sort of existential crisis, because you’ve been working so long (and with so little reward) in graduate school, and then are faced with the possibility of leaving the profession due to financial or family pressures. It is certainly much harder when you are married and have children, because your flexibility decreases markedly.

I wish I had better advice than just to hang in there as long as you can.

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Pastrana resigns

Colombia’s ambassador to the U.S. (and former Colombian president) Andres Pastrana resigned, protesting the fact that another former president, Ernesto Samper, was named ambassador to France. The Clinton administration believed Samper received money from the Cali cartel during his administration (for a nice analysis of U.S.-Colombian relations during that time, see Russell Crandall’s Driven by Drugs). The Colombian Congress, however, did not impeach him.

At Plan Colombia and Beyond, Adam Isacson offers a really interesting discussion of that development. In particular:

--despite all the news about how Uribe’s victory was also a victory for the Bush administration (since it was not “leftist”) the Colombian president is showing very clearly that he is willing to do things the Bush administration really doesn’t like.

--there is reason to believe that Pastrana wanted an excuse to resign, but it’s not clear why.

--it’s not entirely clear what Uribe had to gain by naming Samper (though the comments in Plan Colombia and Beyond offer some speculation).

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Thursday, July 13, 2006

Republicans and the immigration debate

A few days ago, the Wall Street Journal ran an Op-Ed piece entitled, “A Conservative Statement for Immigration Reform,” signed by 33 establishment conservatives (e.g. Jack Kemp, George Shultz, Jeanne Kirkpatrick, and Bill Kristol). They ask what conservatives often ask when confronted with a dilemma: WWRD? What would Reagan do? Reagan, they say, would support the Senate bill, and they blame the ills of IRCA (passed in 1986) on the inability of future administrations to address enforcement. Thus, “The best way—the only way—to realize President Reagan’s vision is through comprehensive immigration reform legislation.”

Incidentally, this is not a common way of interpreting IRCA, because President Reagan signed a bill that explicitly made it easy for businesses to avoid penalties for hiring illegal immigrants. Congress ensured that enforcement would be lax, so there was little future administrations could’ve done without revamping it (as President Clinton would do, though equally unsuccessfully, ten years later).

At about the same time, President Clinton was quoted as praising President Bush’s stance on immigration: “I'm proud of him for doing it and I thanked him for doing it.” Another example of how this debate has created strange bedfellows.

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Guatemala

In response to an arrest order by a Spanish judge, Former Guatemalan dictator (and recent presidential candidate) Efraín Ríos Montt says he was unaware of any atrocities committed while he was in power. Further:

Rios Montt insisted that he is being accused unfairly by a judge who fails "to remember that there was a war in Guatemala, a guerrilla war in which terrorists destroyed bridges, schools, electric plants and other buildings of the people."

The Guatemalan Commission for Historical Clarification (often referred to as a “truth commission”) released a report in 1999 after five years of work investigating human rights abuses during the civil war. One of its conclusions was the following:

Human rights violations and acts of violence attributable to actions by the State represent 93% of those registered by the CEH; they demonstrate that human rights violations caused by state repression were repeated, and that, although varying in intensity, were prolonged and continuous, being especially severe from 1978 to 1984, a period during which 91% of the violations documented by the CEH were committed. Eighty-five percent of all cases of human rights violations and acts of violence registered by the CEH are attributable to the Army, acting either alone or in collaboration with another force, and 18%, to the Civil Patrols, which were organised by the armed forces.

So when Ríos Montt talks about the threat of terrorism, he is correct, but the threat was primarily state-sponsored terrorism. In other words, him.

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Wednesday, July 12, 2006

All Star game

I figured I would post about the All Star game, maybe even address Matthew's post on AL dominance. Then Trevor Hoffman, the sole Padre on the squad, and in my opinion the second best Padre of all time (first, of course, is Tony Gwynn) blew the game in the ninth. So I'm not in the mood.

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More on the Pinochet cocaine story

Following up on yesterday's story about Pinochet and cocaine: his family has filed a defamation lawsuit against Manuel Contreras. Here is another nugget:

The former police chief also stated in the document that former chemist Eugenio Berríos, who worked for the secret police and was found dead on a Uruguayan beach in 1995, is in reality alive and was turned over to the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency.

This is all so remarkable. Pinochet and Contreras dominated the country for years, believing themselves unaccountable, and now are just squabbling. The former is in disgrace and hounded by constant accusations and questioning, while the latter languishes in jail (for the second time).

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Tuesday, July 11, 2006

Rats deserting a sinking ship

Former DINA (secret police) chief Manuel Contreras now says Pinochet produced and sold cocaine, which is a source of his ill gotten gains.

In the sick and murky world of the Chilean dictatorship, anything is possible, but we need to consider the source. As I've written, Contreras also claims that the "disappeared" really just left Chile and are living the high life in Europe, pretending to be dead in order to make the military look bad. As I was doing work for that book chapter, I read one of the books Contreras wrote to claim his innocence, and was constantly struck by what a lowlife he is.

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Monday, July 10, 2006

Minor league baseball

One thing I really enjoy is going to minor league baseball games. Last night we saw the Kannapolis Intimidators (Single A for the White Sox) lose to the Greenville Drive. Kannapolis is a small town just north of Charlotte (and hurting from the disappearance of textile jobs). In what seemed like the perfect example of small town minor league ball in NC, a woman behind us kept my son occupied for long periods of time, teaching him in a soft southern accent to shell peanuts.

For the first time, I actually recognized a player’s name at a Single A game. We see this overweight lefty come up, and hear that his name is Fernando Valenzuela Jr. Maybe he should’ve become a pitcher like his dad, because now he is just a short first basemen who doesn't seem to have much power. Interestingly, he was sent here after being in the Padres organization.

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Sunday, July 09, 2006

Rally in Mexico City

The U.S. media routinely—even gleefully?--touted the fear gripping Mexico in anticipation of Saturday’s rally, which, it was said, would quietly likely lead to violence. Once it was peaceful, we’ve now turned again to predicting potential future violence. The NYT headline is:

Leftist Predicts Unrest Without Complete Recount of Mexican Election

So you have the two things that make a Latin America story juicy—violence and leftists. Even worse, I find this paragraph:

Mr. Calderón would seem a certain ally for the United States, and political analysts have suggested that a Calderón presidency could signal an end to the advance of left-wing politics across Latin America, as neoliberal economic policies from Washington have fallen from favor.

So who are these political analysts? Elections in the past few years in Latin America have yielded a stew of conservatives, populists (of various stripes), and social democrats, but only a sprinkling of anything we could really call “left-wing.” Yes, many people are wary of the Washington Consensus, but that does not automatically make them devotees of Hugo Chávez.

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Saturday, July 08, 2006

Hearings on immigration

The "hearings" being conducted about immigration are about as ridiculous as you might expect. Although the guest worker program and potential avenues of legalization were the most contentious issues, Republicans have ignored these and instead have a single message: we're being overrun by terrorists.

"Border vulnerabilities are opportunities for terrorists"

"Immigration reform must be national security reform"

"Terrorists and violent criminals may exploit smuggling routes used by migrants to enter the United States illegally and do us harm"

"Reducing illegal entries across our borders is now, more than ever, a matter of national security"

"Homeland security rests in large part on border security"

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Friday, July 07, 2006

Venezuela's bid for the UN Security Council

The vote grubbing for the UN Security Council is really fascinating, pitting Venezuela against Guatemala, which is backed by the U.S., which has been actively twisting arms. The latest is that the 15 countries of CARICOM have announced that they will not support Guatemala.

Apparently, part of the issue is that Guatemala continues to have claims on part of Belize. However, money (in the form of oil and bananas) is also talking:

CARICOM officials said they would send a delegation to Caracas to clear up some issues relating to Venezuela's relations with the Caribbean, including details of PetroCaribe deal, an arrangement that allows Caribbean nations to buy oil on preferential terms.

But Dominica Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerritt said CARICOM ''has decided to support the candidacy of Venezuela.'' In addition to its issues with Belize, leaders here accuse Guatemala of contributing to the collapse of the Caribbean's banana industry by leading the fight against banana exports to Europe.


The Guatemalan Foreign Minister claims the country has 90 of the 127 votes (which is 2/3 of the General Assembly) necessary to take the seat. It needs fewer if not all countries vote. The jockeying will continue, as the vote will not take place until October.

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Immigration and the Republican base

Last month I happened to see the story of a Utah Republican primary, which was purportedly being watched by the party because it would demonstrate whether a challenger supporting enforcement-only immigration policy could upend the incumbent. Further, I speculated that it could be a test case that would inform Republicans about how the issue would play in swing districts.

Matthew disagreed, concluding, “I just don't think 'enforcement only' politics is primarily about the base.” I thought it was worthy of further speculation.

If I understand him correctly, then the argument is that Republicans see immigration as an issue important to everyone, but not something that could whip up the base. As I’ve discussed many times, I agree with the former (the “will of the people” argument pops up constantly). But I think Republican leaders do believe the latter, even though President Bush is not on their side—I think they are likely wrong, but they believe it.

The reason is that enforcement-only is a neat little package encompassing many points of concern to the base. Concerned about security? Enforcement-only appeals to those concerned about national security. You can portray Democrats as soft and unwilling to enforce the laws that could prevent terrorists from entering the country.

You can then use the word “amnesty” to characterize how Democrats want to break the law. Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, who is fighting an uphill battle for re-election, is putting immigration front and center, and doing exactly that.

Concerned about jobs? You can blame the influx/tide/wave/invasion of illegal immigrants. They are ready-made scapegoats.

Concerned about the erosion of American culture? It is due to the fact that we encourage law breaking while accepting the encroachment of Spanish. Those multiculturalist Democrats invite the destruction of our heritage. I would argue that all the talk about English-as-national-language is akin to the gay marriage fiasco, where Republicans bring up a sure loser just to prove to the base that its values are being fought for.

Furthermore, in Charlotte there have several high profile cases in which illegal immigrants from Mexico have killed others while driving drunk. Rep. Sue Myrick in particular has been vocal about how an enforcement-only policy would prevent crimes from being committed in the first place.

The cultural aspect also implicitly includes the fear of a large number of darker-skinned Catholic people with different (read potentially dangerous) customs. Even political scientists like Samuel Huntington play into that. Our national identity is at stake if these people continue coming. It is a sort of cultural nationalism the Republican base can relate to.

I think that Republicans overestimate how much their constituents care about immigration, but I see them making this more prominent as we get closer to November to make sure their people don’t just stay home.

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Thursday, July 06, 2006

The media and Latin American politics

OK, here is one of the many empty-headed articles about, as the AP author puts it, the "leftist tide" in Latin America. This tide, which actually never rolled forth, is now at its "high water mark." It is nice to know that something that never happened is finished.

Conservative Felipe Calderon's apparent victory could signal that the leftist tide sweeping Latin America has reached its high-water mark, as voters frightened by the radicalism of Venezuela's Hugo Chavez seek refuge in more mainstream ideas across the region.

That trend has emerged with Mexico's presidential vote count Thursday, the setback dealt to Bolivian President Evo Morales in a referendum Sunday, Peruvian moderate Alan Garcia's victory over Chavez ally Ollanta Humala last month and the landslide re-election of Colombian conservative Alvaro Uribe in May.

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Mexican election saga

After being on vacation, I am slowly catching up. Michelle has a nice graph showing the narrowing gap between AMLO and Calderon, but it appears AMLO has under 200,000 fewer votes than Calderon, and will be calling for a recount. He has also called for a rally on Saturday.

Annoying note. An article in the Washington Post proclaims:

Mexican See-Saw Tips Towards Calderón
Trailing by 100th of a Percent, Obrador Stirs Fears of Violence

Yet in the article there is no mention of violence, or any reason that fear of it might be stirred. This entire “AMLO is a leftist and therefore automatically prone to violence” is getting old. I can’t say there won’t be violence, but let’s have a little evidence at least.

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Tuesday, July 04, 2006

Seattle breakfast

Went to Queen Anne Cafe this morning--a smoked salmon omelet is a good way to begin the day. It does not have a website, but I found this review, which was fitting. In addition to excellent food:

The noise level in the light, high-ceilinged room muffles most infant and toddler shrieks.

My son was engrossed in his strawberry pancakes, while my daughter's shrieks were muffled.

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Monday, July 03, 2006

Mexican presidential election

We're going to have a tense few days, especially if AMLO and Calderón don't each back off their insistence that they won.

From the NYT:

Mr. López Obrador said at a downtown hotel he would respect the decision of the election institute even if he lost by one vote. Yet in the same breath he maintained he was convinced he had won by 500,000 votes. "This result is irreversible," he said.

Appearing before supporters a few minutes later at his party headquarters, Mr. Calderón rattled off the results of several surveys of voters leaving the polls and counts of key districts that showed he had won. "There is not the slightest doubt that we have won the election," he said.


A key aspect of democracy is losing well. Thus far we aren't seeing any signs of it.

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