Trust in the Latin American military

The Latin American Public Opinion Project does all sorts of fascinating work. The latest is about trust in the armed forces.

Daniel Montalvo, "Do You Trust Your Armed Forces?" AmericasBarometer Insights n. 27 (2009).

One key finding is that the level of trust has no relation to past repression. In Chile, for example, 65.2 percent trust the military, and 56.5 percent in El Salvador. Instead, it is correlated to economic growth.

I would like to this sort of analysis examined in more depth. Nicaragua and El Salvador rank high, but I would argue it is controversial to attribute that to economic growth. Mauricio Funes was elected in large part because of dissatisfaction with the economy. There is a cluster of countries around 2 percent growth (for 1990-2005), which is not very high. That cluster includes Argentina, which is at the opposite side of the trust spectrum from every other country.

Still, it is interesting that a majority of Latin Americans in every country but two--Paraguay and Argentina--trust their armed forces. It would also be interesting, however, to ask what they trust them to do or not to do. Do they trust them to protect the country from security threats? Do they trust them not to intervene in domestic politics?

But overall, this would be a great start to a more in-depth academic article.

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Honduras timetable

La Prensa has a PDF of the final agreement in Honduras. The current timetable:

Oct 30 (yesterday): The agreement goes into effect and Congress formally receives point five regarding whether Mel Zelaya should become president again.

November 2 (Monday): Creation of the Commission of Verification.

By November 5 (Thursday): Installation of a unity government.

There is no timetable for the congressional vote. From the OAS: "Naturally, I am sure the members of Congress will fully realize the importance and political urgency of these matters, and I hope they will act as quickly as possible." Zelaya thinks it will happen within a week or so.

From the Micheletti side: "Zelaya won't be restored."

From Zelaya: "This signifies my return to power in the coming days, and peace for Honduras."

Members of Congress will have many factors to consider when casting their vote. At the very core of the decision, however, is the question of whether they prefer a November 29 election that is peaceful, or one that is marked by polarization.

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The end of the Honduran crisis?

Details remain sketchy, and may not be entirely ironed out. But the New York Times has the following:

“The accord allows a vote in Congress on Zelaya’s possible restitution with the prior approval of the Supreme Court,” Mr. Micheletti said in televised comments late Thursday. “This is a significant concession on the part of our government.” “We are satisfied,” Mr. Zelaya said, according to Reuters. “We are optimistic that my reinstatement is imminent.”

La Prensa reports that the agreement consists of the following points. Other outlets have said the negotiators will meet again today, but it is not clear if the points themselves are not set or if it is just a matter of settling the logistics. Here is a quick translation:

1- La creación de un gobierno de unidad y reconciliación nacional.

The creation of a national reconciliation and unity government.

2- Rechazo a la amnistía delitos políticos, y demoratoria de acciones procesos penales.

Rejection of an amnesty for political crimes, and delay for penal processes.

3- Renunciar a una convocatoria a una Asamblea Nacional Constituyente o a reformar la Constitución en los artículos constitucionales irreformables.

Reject the convocation of a National Constitutional Assembly or reform of the unreformable constitutional articles.

4. Reconocer y apoyar las elecciones generales y el traspaso de Gobierno.

Recognize and support the general elections and the transfer of Government.

5- La transferencia de autoridad sobre las Fuerzas Armadas al Tribunal Supremo Electoral.

Transfer of authority over the Armed Forces to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal.

6- La creación de una comisión de verificación para hacer cumplir los puntos del acuerdo.

Creation of a commission of verification to ensure compliance with the points of the accord.

7- La formación de una comisión de la verdad para investigar los sucesos antes, durante y después del 28 de junio de 2009.

The formation of a truth commission to investigate the events before, during, and after June 28, 2009.

8- Solicitar a la comunidad internacional la normalización de las relaciones internacionales con nuestro país.

Request from the international community normalization of international relations with our country.

9. Apoyar una propuesta que permite un voto en el Congreso Nacional con una previa opinión de la Corte Suprema de Justicia para retrotraer todo el Poder Ejecutivo previo al 28 de junio.

Support the proposal that permits a vote in the National Congress with previous judgment from the Supreme Court to make the Executive Power retroactive to before June 28.

This is obviously a huge breakthrough. By far the most important element is that both sides are claiming victory. I would really like to know what the U.S. delegation said.

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Cuban market reforms

Thanks to a student for pointing out this story on Cuban "agros," the capitalist farmers markets. When you allow people profit, they produce more. Since the produce is unavailable elsewhere, prices rise. When prices go up, the government comes in to announce price controls. Then when there are price controls, then sellers get angry and stop bothering (or just resort to the black market). That can make shoppers unhappy as well.

So when the Communist Party served notice that it plans to impose price controls at those agros — ending one of Cuba's few capitalist experiments — angry shoppers fearing yet more shortages turned on state inspectors in an unprecedented public rage.

Police were called to one farmers market this month when customers shouted and chanted at state workers conducting a routine inspection. Two Associated Press reporters were escorted out of the same market Tuesday after their questions about the changes caused another shouting match.

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Inside the Brazilian embassy

Journalist Esteban Felix is there.

Soldiers bark like dogs, meow like cats and crow like roosters just as my REM cycle gets going and I'm jolted awake almost nightly.

Troops last week blasted us with music from 1:30 a.m. until 7 a.m. The playlist included the grating Spanish ballad "Two-legged Rat," an accordian-laced tirade against an ex-boyfriend made famous by Mexican singer Paquita La del Barrio. Its lyrics begin, "Filthy rat, crawling animal, scum of all life ..." and it got worse from there.

That was a rough night.

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Micheletti's last gambles

Roberto Micheletti has said that there is no more reason to talk until after the elections. The United States is sending a high-level delegation (including Tom Shannon) to Honduras to push for a solution, and obviously Micheletti is betting that they will not put sufficient pressure on him to change his mind.

So we are back to square one, really, where the coup government simply sits and waits for the elections. A new Gallup poll shows that 73 percent of Hondurans believe the presidential election will help pave the way for reconciliation. An important question, however, is how they will view those elections if there is more repression, which may well result for the next month.

Micheletti is gambling that a majority of Hondurans have crisis fatigue, and therefore will look to the elections as a solution just to end it in some way. It is not a bad gamble, I suppose, especially given the country's economic problems. But as always, there is just no way to predict the outcome.

Days since the coup: 122
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 32

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Elections in Uruguay: blasts from the past

The Uruguayan presidential election will go to a runoff because no candidate received a majority. However, Frente Amplio candidate José Mújica received just under 50% so will be the next president barring an utter collapse.

Much is being made of the fact that Mújica is an aged ex-Tupamaro guerrilla. Of more interest to me, however, is the generational angle and the fact that Luis Alberto Lacalle came in second. He is a former president (1990-1995), following that persistent pattern of Latin American presidents retiring for a while and then trying to come back (for example, right now we have Oscar Arias in Costa Rica and Alan García in Peru). The other candidate was Pedro Bordaberry, son of a former president and dictator.

A runoff between Mújica and Lacalle is a time warp. From a policy perspective, this is not likely to matter much. Either candidate would not change the popular policy direction of current president Vázquez (see Boz's discussion).

Lacalle is like Eduardo Frei in Chile, trying to convince voters why he is still relevant (and he convinced less than a third). And now he will be in a runoff with someone who became a guerrilla when the Cuban revolution was still new.

Not exactly inspiring.

Uruguayans did even more voting related the past, rejecting the repeal of the amnesty. That alone merits more attention than I have time to give it, since (also as in Chile) the dictatorship is now so far in the past but the amnesty remains.

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Jeane Kirkpatrick and the current crisis in Honduras

I had an email exchange with Russell Bither-Terry, who for a class was looking for links to two articles by Jeane Kirkpatrick, an ultra conservative foreign policy architect of the Reagan administration. [Note: this is not to implicate Russell in the content of my post! He works on hunger issues and you can read his own blog here]

These articles (published in the conservative Commentary magazine) are famous for their highly influential outline of how the U.S. should deal with Latin America, and explicitly argued that dictatorships were fine as long as they were pro-U.S. They are critical works for understanding Reagan-era policies (indeed, no matter which side you come down on).

Rereading them, I was struck by how amazingly (and depressingly) similar they are to the current arguments about how Honduras is a massive security issue. Take Kirkpatrick's "U.S. Security and Latin America," published in 1981 just as (not coincidentally) Reagan was taking office.

Here is the first paragraph, and just substitute "Hugo Chávez" for the Soviets:

While American attention in the past year has been focused on other matters, developments of great potential importance in Central America and the Caribbean have passed almost unnoticed. The deterioration of the U.S. position in the hemisphere has already created serious vulnerabilities where none previously existed, and threatens now to confront this country with the unprecedented need to defend itself against a ring of Soviet bases on and around our southern and eastern borders.

In other words, what happens in Central America could destroy us all. Therefore any talk about democracy must go out the window because it's all a ruse for our enemies.

American policies have not only proved incapable of dealing with the problems of Soviet/Cuban expansion in the area, they have positively contributed to them and to the alienation of major nations, the growth of neutralism, the destabilization of friendly governments, the spread of Cuban influence, and the decline of U.S. power in the region.

Uncanny.

U.S. policy, it was assumed, should be based on an understanding of “changed realities” and guided by an enlightened confidence that what was good for the world was good for the United States. Power was to be used to advance moral goals, not strategic or economic ones. Thus sanctions could be employed to punish human-rights violations, but not to aid American business; power could be used “to the full extent permitted by law” to prevent terrorist actions against Cuba, but not to protect U.S. corporations against expropriation. Nor was power to be a factor in designing or implementing economic aid or trade programs except where these were intended to promote human rights, disarmament, and nuclear non-proliferation.

Barack Obama is being excoriated from the right for even talking about "democracy" or other such disgusting moral goals instead of protecting strategic interests in Honduras.

Anastasio Somoza's Nicaragua had the bad luck to become the second demonstration area for the “fresh start” in Latin America. Just because the regime had been so close and so loyal to the U.S., its elimination would, in exactly the same fashion as the Panama Canal Treaties, dramatize the passing of the old era of “hegemony” in Central America and the arrival of anew era of equity and justice.

Poor Somoza! Poor Micheletti! They're the good guys, for Pete's sake. All that human rights abuse is a Communist plot.

And she ends with the idea that there is no point in trying to do much, because Latin Americans are screwed up anyway. No one says that now, but they're thinking it.

It requires thinking more realistically about the politics of Latin America, about the alternatives to existing governments, and about the amounts and kinds of aid and time that would be required to improve the lives and expand the liberties of the people of the area. The choices are frequently unattractive.

So don't bother with democracy, morality, or human rights. They won't happen anyway, so let's do what's best for us. Which is also good for "them," you know. Or at least good enough.

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Non-English speaking driver

Incredible. Over the last three years, Dallas police have ticketed 39 individuals for being a "non-English speaking driver." Obviously, these people were terrified of contesting an entirely fictitious infraction, even though they had to pay a $204 fine! Finally, one guy challenged it in court and won.

I am getting tired of repeating this, but the lack of action at the federal level is shifting way too much authority to local law enforcement, which is not equipped to deal with it. At the same time, some people will discriminate no matter what.

h/t ImmigrationProf Blog

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Liberals, conservatives, and Honduras

Abraham Lowenthal, a political scientist and long-time observer of U.S.-Latin American relations who is now at the University of Southern California, has a thought-provoking op-ed in the L.A. Times. His argument is that both liberals and conservatives in the United States have made the situation worse in Honduras, and have done so multiple times in the past as well:

What brings Honduras, and Central America more generally, back again and again to center stage in Washington debates on Latin America is not the strategic, security or economic importance of the region to the United States. On the contrary, it is precisely the minimal tangible significance of Central America to the United States in economic, political and military terms that allows U.S. policymakers of conflicting tendencies to indulge in grandstanding in framing policies toward that nearby and vulnerable region.

True enough. Where I disagree, however, is here:

Liberal activists inside and outside the Obama administration jumped at the opportunity to align the U.S. government against the forcible overthrow and deportation of President Manuel Zelaya. Many did so without knowing or caring much about Zelaya's erratic qualities, his interest in trying to prolong his term despite the Honduran constitutional ban on reelection or the considerable sentiment against him in the Honduran legislative and judicial branches.

One argument I've made over these past few months is that it doesn't matter if Zelaya was unpopular. We should not ever go down a slippery slope of justifying a coup just because a president was unpopular.

Overall, though, he has a good point. One reason why this crisis has been so prolonged is that people like Jim DeMint have given the coup government the confidence not to negotiate.

Days since the coup: 117
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 37

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Dialogue in Honduras

Nothing says "we are committed to negotiation" like a) blasting pig grunting noises; and b) saying the main sticking point remains non-negotiable. Not to mention possibly illegal restrictions on freedom of assembly.

Days since the coup: 116
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 38

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Political science and immigration

A lot of virtual ink is being spilled about political science as a discipline, particularly its relevance to policy. See Daniel Drezner for a good round-up. This is also a very important issue for political scientists (or anyone else) studying immigration. John Randolph at Feet in 2 Worlds notes a recent conference on undocumented immigration.

Aarti Kohli served in Washington, DC on the staff of the House Immigration Subcommittee ten years ago. Today she’s the director of immigration policy at the Warren Institute at UC Berkeley. Kohli said that a decade ago members of Congress didn’t pay much attention to immigration research.

Now she sees signs of a more receptive attitude on Capitol Hill. She believes the debate over a possible guest worker program has been influenced by research documenting the abuses of the Bracero program of the 1940s through the 1960s that allowed Mexican men to work legally in the U.S. but denied adequate compensation to many.

But Kohli also argues that if academic researchers want their findings to be used by policy-makers they need to make some changes. Her suggestion, “translate the findings into concrete, easy-to-read language.”

What academic research has shown and what members of Congress are interested in “doesn’t always line up,” according to Kohli. But, she says, “its lining up more these days.”

Political science research matters, and will inform the debate over reform that will intensify next year.

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Hugo Chávez and Michael Moore

Eva Golinger is pretty darned entertaining in her combined denunciation of Michael Moore and lavish praise of Hugo Chávez. For example:

Moore’s declarations against President Chávez are offensive and insulting and a clear sign of his hipocresy and lack of ethic. How many times has we heard President Chávez acclaim Moore’s books and documentaries? And most recently, Chávez announced that Moore’s latest documentary, “Capitalism, a love story”, would premiere here in Venezuela.

If a president allows a film to premiere, then you need to show the proper respect!

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MEO's run

Citing a poll from El Mercurio that puts him tied (within the margin of error) with Eduardo Frei in a first round of December's election in large cities, Marco Enríquez-Ominami says he's the only one who can beat Sebastián Piñera in the second.

Robert Funk notes that MEO has been peeling off many young members of the Concertación, who are leaving in part because there is no room for them there. The coalition is stuck in a generational rut (as exemplified by the candidate himself). That gives MEO's campaign some energy but also a lot of inexperience.

He also points out that all three campaigns think they can win, and polls are certainly not proving any of them wrong. Barring something bizarre, no one will win in the first round. The fight for the second will be intense.

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Quote of the day: Venezuela

“Why not? Who can stop sovereign nations from forming a defensive military alliance and exchanging soldiers and officers and training and materiel and logistics?”

--Hugo Chávez, after criticizing the U.S. and Colombia for exchanging soldiers and officers and training and materiel and logistics.

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Honduras: Congress v. Supreme Court

Talks broke down in Honduras, and Monday is now the new new new deadline (the first deadline was sometime back in July, I think, but this time they mean it). Over at Honduras Coup 2009 they have the texts of the Zelaya and Micheletti camps.

It boils down to whether Congress (Zelaya) or the Supreme Court (Micheletti) should make a final determination about Zelaya's status as president.

Meanwhile, James Baker has an op-ed in the Washington Post and shows he is behind the times, choosing only to repeat most of Micheletti's argument without any idea that it a) represents a minority of opinion in Honduras and b) goes contrary to the San José Accord so is unacceptable to Zelaya. Further, he argues for an amnesty, which all sides have rejected, at least up to this point.

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The Honduran coup

For a well-written analysis centering on whether Mel Zelaya's removal was a coup, check out Max Cameron's article at The Mark.

What is a coup? I suggest a method for discerning coups, based on the theory that “if it waddles like a duck, flaps like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it probably is a duck.” Here are some of the quacks, flaps, and waddles that count as coups:

1. Arbitrary or illegal termination of the tenure in office of any democratically elected official by any other elected official.
2. Arbitrary or illegal appointment, removal, or interference in the appointment or deliberations of members of the judiciary or electoral bodies.
3. Interference by non-elected officials, such as military officers, in the jurisdiction of elected officials.
4. Use of public office to silence, harass, or disrupt the normal and legal activities of members of the political opposition, the press, or civil society.
5. Failure to hold elections that meet generally accepted international standards of freedom and fairness.
6. Violation of the integrity of central institutions, including constitutional checks and balances providing for the separation of powers.
7. Failure to hold periodic elections or to respect electoral outcomes.
8. Systematic violation of basic freedoms, including freedom of expression, freedom of association, or respect for minority rights.

The coup in Honduras fulfills conditions 1, 3, 4, 6, and 8; and 5 is imminent. Let’s call a duck a duck.

I would disagree slightly, in that I would argue that a "coup" refers only to the actual removal of democratically elected officials. The conditions occurring after the removal are referring more to authoritarianism than to a coup per se.

Days since the coup: 110
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 44

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Thomas Shannon appointment

Liz Harper at Americas Quarterly has an article about the effort by some conservatives to torpedo the nomination of Tom Shannon as ambassador to Brazil. They are distributing talking points that criticize his work at Assistant Secretary of State. These criticisms focus mostly on the fact that he was willing to have dialogue with governments that may be antagonistic, and did not meddle enough to fund opposition to those governments. Interestingly, they also lament the fact that he put the strategic interests of the U.S. ahead of other concerns (particularly with regard to Venezuela).

As she correctly notes, such criticisms fail to grasp causality. U.S. policy in the past helped fuel movements that brought presidents to power who are skeptical of (or outright confrontational with) the U.S. government. Meddling more will certainly make the situation worse. Shannon's pragmatism (or just refraining from personal insults!) helped calm things down. In other words, it was actually diplomacy.

A good relationship with Brazil matters a lot and blocking Shannon is just shooting ourselves in the foot.

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More fact finding in Honduras

Peter Roskam is one of the Republican House members who went to Honduras, and he published an op-ed about the trip. As with other coup supporters, he calls Mel Zelaya's forced exile a "tactical error" rather than a violation of the constitution. There are a variety of other common errors, all of which were assuredly reinforced by his "fact" finding.

The most entertaining part of the argument, and he makes it twice for emphasis, is that Honduras is a "counterbalance" and a "necessary check" to Hugo Chávez. That's right, this tiny and underdeveloped country is the absolute key to stability not only in Central America, but in South America as well.

As often happens when I reach such things, I wonder to myself whether they really believe what they're writing or not.

Days since the coup: 109
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 45

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The Honduran military and negotiations

Amid calls to boycott the election, the Honduran Minister of Defense indicated that the Honduran people should not have to hear such messages because it will just "confuse" them. Apparently it is difficult for them to figure things out for themselves. The armed forces, he says, will apply "all the weight of the law" for the elections.

Meanwhile, Military Chief Romeo Vásquez made clear that he is alerting the negotiators about anything that according to him creates an undefined "risk."

He also said that he felt the negotiations were close to an end, which I would think is the main reason for all these statements. The military is reminding everyone involved that it is central to any solution. As indeed it was central to creating the problem that now requires a solution.

Days since the coup: 108
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 46

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The Forum issue on immigration

The Forum, which is an electronic journal focusing on applied political research, has a special issue on immigration reform that is worth a look.

From the intro:

The immigration issue seems insistently with us in the late 2000s, though immigration policy seems persistently elusive. Seeking an intellectual handle on this disjunction, a cluster of Forum authors focus on immigration politics in its many forms. Daniel Tichenor maps the difficult terrain for policymaking in this realm, while Ben Marquez and John Witte address alternative congressional strategies for making immigration policy. Randall Hansen looks at American policy in comparative perspective, while Peter Schuck raises the possibility of giving the individual states wider latitude to legislate. Peter Skerry argues that observers have misperceived the reality of immigration politics and policy; Jack Citrin and Matthew Wright link notions of American identity with public preferences in this realm;

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Targets in the drug war

You know the "drug war" could actually transform when even Mary Anastasia O'Grady writes about liberalization and a new focus on demand rather than just supply. She interviewed former Secretary of State George Schultz. He even notes approvingly of the report earlier this year from former presidents Zedillo, Gaviria, and Cardoso that made similar recommendations. I am glad to see that report retain some life.

This has a similar flavor to Cuba policy. After years of disastrously failed policies, conservative Republicans begin to shift their positions. The issue can then be framed in terms (particularly security) that appeal to Republicans and thereby made politically palatable. The process is slow, but once some diehard conservatives are on board, change is all but inevitable.

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The new new deadline

Throughout the Honduran crisis, Mel Zelaya has periodically issued ultimatums, then ignored them. Nonetheless, it is worth noting the latest ultimatum, which is October 15 (Thursday).

Despite news of "progress" in the talks, there seem to be two key sticking points. The biggie is Zelaya's reinstatement, which for the moment remains a deal breaker in opposite directions for both sides. Nothing new or surprising there.

"If after all of this, they say that there is not going to be reinstatement (of Zelaya), what difference does it make if we made progress on anything else?" Barahona asked.

"Tuesday, we are going to get at that key point in detail. If on October 15 we do not have a deal, the talks will have failed."

The second is amnesty, which Zelaya's side does not want.

The Zelaya camp, Barahona added, opposed amnesty because such a move would mean "amnesia, forgetfulness and forgiveness, and we cannot condone the coup."

What that means for a potential trial for Zelaya is not clear.

For now, we are back into the routine of delay and waiting. The constant protests, however, make it much more difficult for the coup government simply to sit and drag it out.

Days since the coup: 106
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 48

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James Hynes' The Lecturer's Tale

I read James Hynes' The Lecturer's Tale, which is a funny though sometimes truly bizarre novel centering on a fictional high-powered English department in Minnesota. Nelson Humboldt, the protagonist, has his finger severed in an accident just after being fired as an adjunct instructor. When it is reattached he finds he can make people do what he wants. As always happens with such stories, he then generates all sorts of unintended (and sometimes unpleasant) consequences.

Hynes deftly navigates all sorts of academic realities, from internal power struggles to the exploitation of non-tenured faculty. Since virtually all novels about academia are written by people from English departments, it explores the debate over postmodernism and "great works." This leads Hynes into areas like ideology, the nature of gender, relationships, and even the very purpose of universities (on that note, I found the ending very poignant, though the climactic scenes were pretty excessive).

A number of the characters are too over the top, like a Serbian professor who dressed in a different costume every day, from a cowboy to a Cub Scout, or the professor who is always asleep, whether in meetings or at a department party. But overall, even when caricatures, they symbolize the different types of personalities many departments have. And sometimes it's very funny, such as the guy whose job talk made up a movie that Elvis could have made, and since it exemplified the cultural aspects of Elvis so well, it should be regarded as actually existing.*

It left me wishing, though, that a novelist from a different discipline would examine academia, because all disciplines have factions of some sort (the most significant in political science revolves around qualitative versus quantitative methodology) and I am a little tired of reading about the same English ones all the time.


* for non-academics, a job talk is a lecture/talk about your research given during the course of a multi-day interview for a position as professor.

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TV media in Honduras

From France 24: a very interesting piece on the television media in Honduras. The money quote is from the state newscaster who argues that removing Zelaya from the country was actually giving him a privilege.



Days since the coup: 104
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 50

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Latest Chile poll numbers

Adimark published its monthly poll on Chilean politics. Michelle Bachelet's approval rating stands at 76%.

At the same time, there is more disapproval than approval for how she is handling education, health, Transantiago, corruption, and crime. This seems strange, but overall Chileans are concerned with the economy, and they like how she and Andrés Velasco have handled it.

Further, 61% disapprove of the way the Chamber of Deputies is working, and 56% disapprove of the Senate.

Lastly, the Concertación has an approval rating of only 28%, versus 52% disapproval. The Alianza is about the same--26% approval and 53% disapproval.

This has been a consistent theme, especially in the last year (and which is analyzed in the book I edited with Silvia Borzutzky). Bachelet retains personal popularity but it does not rub off on anyone else. As Pato Navia points out, she also never groomed any future leaders.

In short, her approval will have little or no impact on the December elections. Chileans like her, but are generally unhappy with their government.

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Making the arms race easier

The Chilean government is putting a list together of all its military purchases and wants other Latin American countries to do the same. This way, neighboring countries can see exactly how far behind they are as they try to catch up.

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Honduras :a new argument

For anyone who supported the ouster of Mel Zelaya, there are a variety of legal problems, but one is insurmountable. His forced exile was unconstitutional.

ARTICULO 102.- Ningún hondureño podrá ser expatriado ni entregado por las autoridades a un Estado extranjero

No Honduran can be expatriated or handed over by authorities to a foreign state.

That, of course, is exactly what the military did. Roberto Micheletti typically refers to this violation of the constitution as an "error." Oops, sorry about that.

But Senator Jim DeMint now claims he was told the following by the Honduran Supreme Court:

DEMINT: They did it right. The only thing they know that is not specifically according to the Constitution was taking Zelaya...

VAN SUSTEREN: Putting them on the plane and throwing them out of the country.

DEMINT: They said the Constitution allows for exceptional situations, and they felt like he had presented a danger to people because of his ability to use Chavez's money to instill riots.

The coup government is therefore desperate enough to lie to a U.S. senator. There is no constitutional exception to the prohibition of exile.

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Fact finding in Honduras

Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen went to Honduras and then apparently sat and caressed Roberto Micheletti's arm while holding up a copy of the constitution that specifically prohibits forced exile. If you were curious about what exactly happens during a "fact finding trip," then now you know.

Her overall conclusion was that the U.S. will be overrun by drugs if we don't support the coup government immediately. She learned this from classified conversations that she cannot disclose.

Feel free to insert your own caption.

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If you can beat 'em, then also join 'em

The IMF wants more money to act as lender of last resort, and Brazil is stepping up:

Brazil, an emerging economy, said on Monday that it will spend 10 billion dollars (6.8 billion euros) on buying IMF bonds to boost the fund's power to help countries through the global crisis.

It was the first time that Brazil, Latin America's economic giant, has lent money to the 186-nation International Monetary Fund.

"We have gone from being debtors to creditors," Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega said ahead of IMF and World Bank annual meetings which begin Tuesday.

This is yet another example of Lula's concerted effort to elevate Brazil's global presence, hard on the heels of his successful bid for the Olympics.

"This contribution is an expression of Brazil willingness to play a greater role in the fund and support the institution and its objectives," he said.

Brazil paid off its own IMF debt a few years ago, and now will try to use its money as leverage to influence IMF loan policies.

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War of the Pacific (again)

You may recall that Peru has persistently demanded that a change in its maritime border with Chile. In August 2007 the government published a map showing how much more it should get, and then in January 2008 it announced it was taking the case to the International Court of Justice.

Now the Chilean Foreign Minister, Mariano Fernández, went on TV and started criticizing Peru's case. He noted that it would be extremely difficult for Peru to get anything because it had no facts on its side. He also pointed out that Peruvian complaints about Chilean aggression were exaggerated, because Chile had not been in a war since 1885, whereas Peru fought against Ecuador in 1995. I'm not sure what he hoped to accomplish by taking public swipes at Peru on such a delicate topic.

For anyone interested, the ICJ documents can be found here. Peru presented its argument in March 2009 (see here). Chile is not required to present its own case until March 2010.

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Cuba and the embargo

Jorge Castañeda has an unusual article in Newsweek. The core of his argument is that Cuba is so incredibly powerful that we need to end the embargo. He concludes:

Havana and Chávez are closely aligned; Zelaya would never have made it to the Brazilian Embassy in the Honduran capital without Cuban logistical aid, and Chávez himself would probably not survive politically or otherwise without the island's security apparatus that permanently surrounds him. But an end to the embargo could begin to split apart Havana and Caracas, and it is probably the only intelligent policy Washington has available to it.

I have to say that I've not heard this argued before. Hugo Chávez would not survive politically without Cuba? Fidel and Raúl orchestrated Mel Zelaya's return? Neither Roberto Micheletti nor Jim DeMint has even gone that far!

On other hand, I support ending the embargo for a number of reasons, so I will try to overlook the odd rationale people might have for agreeing with me.

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DeMint: DeGovernment is DeBest

Senator Jim DeMint zipped down quickly to Honduras to meet with everyone who supported the coup, and to get a better idea of why they thought it was such a good idea. He issued the following statement:

"We had a very productive trip, and we will have more to say next week after we have briefed our colleagues in the House and Senate. But for now, I can say that we saw a government working hard to follow the rule of law, uphold its constitution, and to protect democracy for the people of Honduras. We are very encouraged by what we saw and we hope to be able to work with our administration to support the upcoming elections,” said Senator DeMint.

Aside from his clear lack of understanding of what it means to uphold a constitution, the interesting thing is that DeMint is well behind the curve. Dialogue between representatives of Micheletti and Zelaya will begin soon (assuming no one reneges). Fewer and fewer coup supporters see waiting for the elections as a viable strategy. So the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is free to debate what it wants, but Hondurans themselves are driving events.

Days since the coup: 97
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 57

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DeMint is DeNied

Jim DeMint's efforts to travel to Honduras were nixed by John Kerry, who as chair of the Foreign Relations Committee can block the funds. Although DeMint tried to frame it as an effort to prevent senators from learning the "truth" about Honduras (and, it should be noted, their planned way of determining the truth was simply to talk to Roberto Micheletti) the real reason is much simpler:

"When Senator DeMint lifts these holds and allows these individuals to receive an up or down vote on the Senate floor, the Committee will approve his travel to Honduras, a country that is in the middle of delicate, political crisis.”

Basic tit for tat. The individuals in question are Arturo Valenzuela and Tom Shannon.

DeMint also released a statement with the false assertion that the Congressional Research Service "directly contradicts President Obama’s snap decision about the legality of then-President Zelaya’s removal from office in June." As I mentioned in a previous post, this is not true. The CRS report is in fact critical of the military and the coup government.

Now, repeat after me. "There is no such CRS report. There is no such CRS report." Instead, there is a Law Library of Congress report that is picked apart here, among other places.

Update: Boz notes that DeMint managed to get a plane from the Pentagon. Now he can find out the truthiness of the crisis.

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DeMint and Honduras

Via The Hill: Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC) will be part of a delegation to Honduras. In fact, Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL) will be doing the same. Maybe the same one.

This is a sign of concern among conservatives that the "wait it out until the elections" strategy is at risk. They feel the need to go and provide a public show of support for the coup government at this critical time. I have to question how much that will ultimately matter. First, Honduran elites know that Republicans are not in the White House and so support from the opposition party can't provide them with much. Second, Honduran elites are also well aware that events on the ground are more important than the views of a few U.S. politicians. The visits will likely be much trumpeted by the pro-coup newspapers, but forgotten not long thereafter.

DeMint wins the quote of the day contest: "Hondurans should be able to choose their own future." As in, "Hondurans should be able to choose their own president and not have him be overthrown in his pajamas."

Days since the coup: 95
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 59

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Venezuela and Libya

Hugo Chávez bestowed the Order of the Liberator on Muammar Gaddafi.

“The entire people of Margarita is full of joy with your presence and they pay you homage as prove of our love and affection to Libyan people, to Arab people, African people, to the great Libyan revolution,” Chavez said.

...

“We are making history. We are facing the imperialism, the bourgeoisie and backwardness, the colonialism of more than 500 years that has assaulted our peoples and that's why the Bolivarian Revolution is full of jubilation with the presence of one of the great leaders of this century,” Chavez said.

No commentary really needed.

Update: Angus (aka Kevin Grier) at Kids Prefer Cheese provides commentary. So to speak.

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Why Newt Gingrich shouldn't ever have foreign policy influence

From a Fox News interview, in which he was asked about Honduras:

VAN SUSTEREN: So why - why is the United States backing Zelaya, who is currently hiding out in the Brazilian Embassy in Honduras? Why - why - if it's as you say?

N. GINGRICH: Because the sympathy for the left in this administration is unending, and the fact is Zelaya is the Castro, Chavez candidate to be the strong man of Honduras. The fact is in Nicaragua, Somoza's trying to change the constitution so he can be a lifetime leader like Chavez, and you're seeing the redictatorship of Latin America from the left, from people who are both anti-American and anti-rule of law.

A Freudian slip, or just living in the past? Anastasio Somoza, of course, was the Nicaraguan dictator who was overthrown by the Sandinistas in 1979.

Also, I love the word "redictatorship."

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Honduras decree

According to the NYT, after receiving criticism from all sides, including the Honduran Congress, Roberto Micheletti says he will ask the Supreme Court to lift the decree. The pro-coup paper El Heraldo says the same. The legislative leadership has apparently said it would not approve the decree.

So the executive issues a decree, but needs the Supreme Court to lift it?

Article 187 of the constitution says that if "the causes that motivated the decree" have disappeared, it is no longer in effect. It does not say who makes that determination. But it is reasonable to assert that if the executive made the initial determination, he or she would then be able to argue whether the original cause was no longer in evidence.

But the same article says that Congress will be convoked and can "ratify, modify, or reject" the decree. In other words, Congress could vote right now without any other branch of government being involved. They would need a majority to be convoked (Article 190).

Therefore, unless there is something I am missing, the decree could be revoked at any time, and the judiciary does not need to be involved. The current situation is just stalling.

Days since the coup: 93
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 61

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Perceptions of Zelaya's return

The U.S. Ambassador to the OAS has criticized Mel Zelaya for returning to Honduras before an agreement was reached:

"The return of Zelaya absent an agreement is irresponsible and foolish ... He should cease and desist from making wild allegations and from acting as though he were starring in an old movie," Anselm said.

On the latter part, well, it doesn't help anyone to start talking about how Israeli mercenaries are trying to torture you. Even the Brazilian government told him to stop with that.

But here's the deal. Given the stalemate, odds were high that no agreement would have been reached before the November elections. The economy was/is hurting, but the coup government very clearly believed it could wait it out. The idea that negotiations would even occur seems absurd, since Micheletti said constantly that he would not negotiate. He gambled--reasonably--that when push came to shove the international community would eventually recognize the new government and go about its business. Panama had already indicated it would go that route.

There are, of course, many high-level private discussions going on, so maybe there are facts we don't know about. However, I wouldn't mind hearing an argument for how a negotiation could have successfully proceeded.

So you can call his return a lot of things, but foolish isn't one of them. Not if his goal is to return to the presidency. It was most definitely risky, but it is highlighting the illegitimacy of the coup government. That Micheletti is responding with such rampant disregard for the constitution or human life is tragic.

At least the U.S. did call the suspension of the constitution "deplorable" but I have yet to see whether the administration goes beyond that.

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Suspension of the constitution in Honduras

According to Roberto Micheletti, Honduras is a "happy country" whose people have moved on since June 28.

According to this logic, I suppose Hondurans must really be enjoying suspension of their constitutional rights, outlawing of public gatherings, deportation of OAS officials, and censorship. According to La Prensa, the state of emergency is in place for 45 days (not quite enough to get to the election for the current decree). Even the military is making accusations against specific reporters.

As I've written before, Hondurans will likely determine the outcome of this conflict in the absence of increased international pressure. These happy measures are directed at plans to have large anti-coup demonstrations.

Days since the coup: 92
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 62

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Out of Captivity

I read Out of Captivity: Surviving 1,967 Days in the Colombian Jungle, the story of three contractors (Marc Gonsalves, Keith Stansell, and Tom Howes) working in Colombia for Northrop Grunman. Their small plane crashed in 2003 and they were taken hostage by the FARC. They were rescued in 2008 in an ingenious hoax the Colombian government put together.

This is a really interesting book. The strength the hostages (both the Americans and the Colombians, and many of the latter were in captivity much longer) showed is inspiring. Surviving years and years of abuse is amazing. Their strength is admirable. Yet while reading the book, I tended not to like the three much, even while feeling horrible for their plight.

And that plight is disgusting. Their account of life with the FARC is sickening. Being chained by the neck, deprived of food, enduring jungle diseases, and facing all sorts of abuse became commonplace for over five years. That is hard to contemplate. The details themselves are fascinating and provide a lot of into insight into how the guerrillas live daily.

For better or worse, having one author for three people means their voices are mostly indistinguishable, and they jumble together. They all talk military slang--for example, they live in a "hooch," not a hut or tent, and they are helos, birds, friendlies, references to "Nam," etc. And all are entirely ignorant of Colombian politics. They derisively label Colombian hostages as "politicals" if they were politicians, as if their own jobs had no political significance. In their eyes, they were there for a job, and it was apolitical. They also know nothing of South American politics, labeling both Hugo Chávez and Ricardo Lagos as "far left of center" (p. 85).

They seemed to feel they didn't need to know much: "I was an American, and I was going to act like an American no matter where in the world I was, and that was that" (p. 183). Ego in general is very much in evidence. It begins right away, as Marc notes that when going to work in the very early morning, they all just ignore stoplights and compete to see who can arrive first. Or as Keith put it, "I could be perceived as being the alpha male. That was a position I enjoyed" (p. 185).

Ultimately, the book is a sobering reminder that the FARC is both vicious and well-equipped to continue living in the deep jungle, while the so-called war against drugs (the three men were in a Cessna looking for coca fields) is largely failing. And many hostages remain.

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Hedging bets in Honduras

When asked point blank who he considers to be the Honduran president, National Party candidate Porfirio Lobo refused to answer, saying he called them both by their name to avoid getting tangled up in the situation: “yo a los dos llamo por su nombre para no meterme a rollos, a enredos." The pro-coup paper La Prensa summed it up as "Porfirio Lobo does not know who is president."

Now THAT is a politician. Too bad the reporter did not ask him what the definition of "is" is.

Days since the coup: 90
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 64

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Classic Micheletti

Roberto Micheletti says the OAS can send a commission to Honduras. But not until next week. The more things change, the more they stay the same. I have lost track of the number of times the coup government has agreed to something, but not until later in the week, next week, or the like. Two months to go until the presidential election, and he is once again betting he can wait it out.

The AP article also has a great quote in the context of the positions of the presidential candidates: "It's not easy campaigning in the aftermath of a coup."

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Honduran dialogue

News about Honduras is basically abuzz about "dialogue." According to La Prensa, Roberto Micheletti has apparently accepted an OAS mission, at the urging of Jimmy Carter. That came after Mel Zelaya announced that Micheletti's own conditions for "dialogue" were so one-sided as to be unacceptable.

Dialogue is indeed positive, but only to a point. If the dialogue does not become negotiation, then it is largely pointless because it is only two sides talking at one another.

A lot depends on Hondurans themselves. If protests dwindle and most people go back to their daily routines, then the crisis might easily revert to its previous situation of ticking off the days until the election. Just as before, there is little overt international pressure on the coup government, or at least not enough to change its stance.

Days since the coup: 89
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 65

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Micheletti's negotiations

From CNN: Roberto Micheletti says that he is willing to have a dialogue anywhere with Mel Zelaya. But that he would also have him arrested. Just that little hitch.

Micheletti's willingness to engage Zelaya seemed to be a reversal of his position. On Tuesday, he had said in an interview with local network Televicentro that Zelaya's sudden appearance would not revive negotiations to have him return to power.

Actually, no. The position is the same. Micheletti is willing to talk, but not to negotiate. He has often said he will discuss the San José Accord as long as he does not have to accept any of it.

And, by the way, when the power went out in the Brazilian embassy, Zelaya supporters did it themselves.

Despite local reports citing police officials that authorities turned off the power to the embassy and surrounding area ostensibly to discourage looting, Micheletti said that a congregation of pro-Zelaya protesters at the embassy short-circuited the power themselves.

Remarkably, they also threw tear gas at themselves and beat themselves with batons.

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WSJ on Honduras

The Wall Street Journal has an editorial about the Honduran crisis, blaming the Obama administration for its handling of the situation. That is to be expected from the WSJ editorial board, but it is frustrating to see the same lies (it is too late, I think, to call them misrepresentations, misstatements, errors, or the like because the facts are so well known).

The essential argument for those who support Roberto Micheletti is that Mel Zelaya's ouster was entirely constitutional. So the editorial includes the following:

Mr. Zelaya was deposed and deported this summer after he agitated street protests to support a rewrite of the Honduran constitution so he could serve a second term.

We've gone over this a hundred times, and the best argument anyone can make is that "everyone knows" Zelaya would try for a second term, which is then taken as the same as evidence. But term limits were never mentioned in the referendum, and even the Supreme Court largely avoided the issue in its own supporting documents.

But this one is even better:

To avoid violence the Honduran military escorted Mr. Zelaya out of the country. In other words, his removal from office was legal and constitutional, though his ejection from the country gave the false appearance of an old-fashioned Latin American coup.

Escorted! What an odd word to choose. In legal terms, this is otherwise known as "forced into exile in violation of the constitution by a military acting according to its own whims without regard for the law." That is a coup.

I understand very well the anti-Zelaya arguments. But the lying is just sad.

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Freedom of the press

Glancing through La Prensa, a pro-coup newspaper, I laughed to myself as I read this story. The curfew is paralyzing the country, the police made sure that La Prensa was distributed. Hondurans were therefore able to read about what a great job the police are doing in calmly combating the crazed Zelaya terrorists.

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The Honduran stand-off

The crisis in Honduras is evolving constantly, but now appears to be in a basic stand-off. The military and police forcibly cleared the area around the Brazilian embassy and cut off its power. Soldiers patrol the neighboring rooftops, and at times have launched tear gas into the embassy.

The airports are closed, which conveniently prevents any would-be negotiator (such as José Miguel Insulza) from arriving in the country. And pro-Zelaya media is being harassed.

This sort of situation seems unlikely to last long. I've been getting questions in class as well as via email about whether the Honduran police and/or military would storm the embassy. I would be surprised if that happened, though this crisis has been very unpredictable. Violating an embassy is very serious, and would contradict the coup government's message of peace and reconciliation. But bad decisions sometimes get made in the heat of the moment.

On the other hand, Brazil does not really want Zelaya there long. This is a major imposition for the Brazilians, and they felt compelled to agree less than an hour before he arrived. They do not want to shut down their embassy so that he can just hunker down for a lengthy period of time. Zelaya will want to be there just long enough to force dialogue with Roberto Micheletti.

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Quote of the day: Honduras

"The State of Honduras is committed to respect the rights of Mr. Zelaya to due process."

--Roberto Micheletti, head of a government that refused to allow Zelaya a trial and instead illegally exiled him.

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Where's Zelaya?

Look, this is just weird.

Mel Zelaya says he is in Tegucigalpa, but won't say where. His supporters are at the UN building there because a "senior Zelaya aide" says he was, but the UN says he isn't there. Roberto Micheletti says Zelaya is in a hotel in Nicaragua. The State Department says he is indeed somewhere in Honduras. Another rumor is that he is in the Brazilian embassy.

If he is indeed in Honduras, it is hard to imagine him hiding too long, and indeed it would not be very presidential. What happens when he goes public is impossible to predict. The coup government has said repeatedly that it will arrest him, but that will not be easy. Hopefully there will be some sort of dialogue, though I cannot think of any point of agreement.

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CRS report on U.S.-Honduran relations

The Congressional Research Service updated its report on Honduras and it provides a clear summary of the crisis. Interestingly, Mary Anastasia O'Grady uses it to claim that the Obama administration lacks "legal basis" for calling it a coup. Here is the relevant part of the report on that issue:

Roberto Micheletti maintains that he is the legitimate president of Honduras, and that Zelaya’s removal was not a military coup. Indeed, Micheletti refers to the ouster as a “constitutional substitution,” despite the acknowledgement of the Honduran army’s top lawyer that the military likely broke the law by forcibly sending Zelaya into exile. Those involved in the removal maintain that their methods were necessary to avoid chaos and bloodshed. Micheletti has named a new cabinet, announced a preliminary plan of governance, and assured the public that general elections will be held in November 2009, as previously planned. The de facto president has also received strong support from some sectors of Honduran society, with thousands of people marching in support of Zelaya’s removal. A poll taken in the days after the ouster found that 46% of Hondurans opposed the military removal of Zelaya while 41% thought it was justified.

Despite Micheletti’s declarations that the country continues to function democratically, Honduran society generally has been under strict control since Zelaya’s removal. Following the ouster, a curfew was put in place, security forces have patrolled the streets, and a number of local an international television and radio stations have been shut down or intimidated. Additionally, members of Zelaya’s Administration, some members of the press, and at least one Congressional deputy have been detained or forced to go into hiding. Crowds of thousands of protesters have been dispersed—sometimes violently, and on July 1, the Honduran National Congress approved a decree suspending a number of constitutional rights. The decree allows security forces to enter private homes without a warrant, allows the detention of persons for 24 hours without charges, and suspends the rights of free association and free movement during curfew hours. While the curfew was lifted on July 12, it was reinstated on July 15, and remains in place in some parts of the country. Likewise, there continue to be reports of media censorship and political repression.

I should point out that since the Honduran constitution forbids forced exile, it is not just "likely" that the Honduran military broke the law.

Days since the coup: 85
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 69

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Russia and Cuba

In February, I noted that President Obama had not changed U.S. policy regarding Georgia or about Ukraine or Georgia joining NATO, so Russia was still interested in maintaining a Latin America presence in response. However, I speculated that since the missile shield policy would likely change, that might be enough to reduce Russia's military connections to the region.

That may well be wrong, as a senior Russian military officer says they will modernize Cuba's military, and warships may be on the way for a visit.

``Although maintaining a military presence in Latin America has logistical and financial problems for Russia, it will still force the United States to address the Russian presence in its backyard,'' wrote Stratfor, a private geopolitical analysis firm based in Austin, Texas.

This is a very important point. The cost for Russia is nontrivial, and I doubt Cuba has much to spend on Russian weapons to counteract that cost to any significant degree. But obviously the announced change in missile shield policy was not enough.

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Micheletti on TV

What do you do if you're a president who took power as the result of a coup and you want to sway public opinion in the U.S., but your visa has been revoked? Put on a flowery shirt, go on Fox News and say this is a "happy country."

He is interviewed by Greta Van Susteren, who admits she does not know Honduran law or the constitution, but that as she understands it, the June 28 vote was supposed to give Mel Zelaya a second term. For that and other falsehoods, just watch the big guy in the loud shirt.

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Stereotypes and drugs

Negative stereotypes about people of Latin American descent--especially Mexicans--are deeply embedded in the debate over immigration, and they are as well in the fight against drugs.

The U.S. Forest Service has apologized for suggesting that campers who eat tortillas, drink Tecate beer and play Spanish music may be armed marijuana growers, calling it "regrettable" and "insensitive."

This is stupid on so many levels, and is a reminder of the remarkable degree of ignorance out there. But even if you arrested a lot of people who had those characteristics, correlation is not causation.

I also wondered whether they did not suspect campers who drank Dos Equis.

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Arms purchases in Latin America

I am glad a Latin American president is talking about this. From the joint press conference with Uruguayan President Tabaré Vázquez and Secretary Clinton:

PRESIDENT VAZQUEZ: (Via interpreter) With respect to the arms race, not only is our country worried, but we have already expressed time and again our position against an arms race. We believe that it is quite inconvenient to the region to devote such significant economic resources toward purchasing arms. And – but it’s a fact, and we can’t deny it, that the countries are buying weapons.

And to make things worse, our region is the region that has the worst distribution of wealth. So with – under those conditions, it is still worse to be devoting those resources to weapons. South America has millions of people living in poverty, and there are thousands of children that die across Latin America and South America because of child diarrhea or diseases that could be prevented.

So because of all these reasons, all that should lead the governments of South America to decide to devote more money to promote health, to promote education and education to prevent diseases; to spend that money, instead of spending it in weapons, spending it in housing, good housing for our people, and to further deepen investment, especially in the field of education.

So we should devote our energies and resources to fight against the real scourges of our societies, that are drug – such as drug trafficking and terrorism. That would be certainly a much better use of our resources.

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Honduran presidential candidates

Four of the six Honduran presidential candidates are in Costa Rica to meet with Oscar Arias. His goal is to convince them to pressure Roberto Micheletti into accepting the San José Accord, and to reiterate that the winner will not be recognized internationally. The candidates are Elvin Santos (Liberal Party), Porfirio Lobo Sosa (National Party), Felícito Avila (Christian Democrats), and Bernard Martínez (Innovation and Unity).

According to La Prensa, the four candidates have met and agreed they will come with the unified position that the coup was constitutional and the Honduran people want the elections to move forward.

Ultimately, Arias will have to explain precisely what he hopes the candidates will do. Otherwise this exercise will consist of vague pressure that will either have no impact or make them more resentful. It is certain that Micheletti and others have been telling them not to worry, because after the elections all the sanctions will end no matter what people say.

Days since the coup: 80
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 74

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Mexico and drug law

The New York Times offered five people (such as Jorge Castañeda) the opportunity to comment on the recent changes in Mexico regarding decriminalization of small amounts of drugs. Once you winnow out the platitudes, the responses seem to converge on certain issues:

First, the law will have little or no impact on the broader drug war or violence.

Second, it may have an impact on reducing police corruption, which usually required a bribe to avoid being hauled in for possession.

Third, it will not lure more Americans to Mexico to take drugs.

What the authors were not asked to do, and should have been, was to discuss whether the reforms taking place in Mexico and Argentina mark a real shift in thinking across Latin America, or will likely remain isolated cases. If the former, then eventually it could (could, not would) influence policy making in the United States. Tony Payan (from UTEP) mentions the issue briefly, but it would have been interesting to probe in more detail.

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Honduras and Human Rights Council

The UN Human Rights Council couldn't start on time because the Honduran representative (who was originally named by Mel Zelaya but now is loyal to Roberto Micheletti) wasn't allowed in as an observer. Naturally, he blamed it on Hugo Chávez.

Rumor has it that he also wished to introduce a measure defining "pajama kidnapping" as "a fun filled vacation to Costa Rica."

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Undocumented immigrants and community college in NC

My op-ed on undocumented immigrants and community college was just published in the News & Observer.

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More visas

The Obama administration has always been applying incremental and gradual (even glacial) pressure on the Honduran coup government. The latest is taking away the diplomatic and tourist visas of 17 coup government officials, including Robert Micheletti. He was miffed:

He complained that the letter addressed him “not as the president of Honduras” but as speaker of Congress, his position before elected head of state Mel Zelaya was dragged from the presidential palace on June 28 and flown to Costa Rica.

Pobrecito!

An important question is whether these and other measures will hold after the November presidential election. Talking to the press, Micheletti repeated for the Nth time that he would not accept the San José Accord, and therefore there is no more negotiation. Thus, for the Nth time he demonstrates his belief that Honduras can make it to November, at which point the pressure will subside.

And if my counting is correct, then the Honduran crisis is at the halfway point between the coup and the election.

Days since the coup: 77
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 77

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Fidel's fashion

Given all his public appearances, Fidel Castro once again appears not to be deceased. Analysts have spent decades trying to track his health. Now they're going on step further, by analyzing his clothes to determine whether he might return to power. Seriously. With phrases like "tropical business casual."

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Who coups?

The left blames the U.S. for Mel Zelaya's overthrow, and now Roberto Micheletti himself felt the need to deny that the U.S. is going to overthrow him. Apparently there are rumors of U.S. military planes flying around. He even went so far as to say that if there was an invasion, "I would be the first to know." Good for him! As ms at Honduras Coup 2009 points out, if this was a rumor started by the opposition, it was quite effective.

All rumors of U.S. involvement presuppose that the Obama administration cares much about Honduras. It doesn't. The gradual sanctions show that the administration really wants this crisis to solve itself without its involvement.

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Immigration round table

I was invited to participate in a round table on comprehensive immigration reform today, with the Assistant Secretary of Homeland Security for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, John Morton. The Obama administration will not pursue reform until next year, but is organizing these meetings across the country to get input on four main issues:

1. Work site protection and workplace enforcement
2. How to address the millions of undocumented immigrants already in the country
3. What an effective enforcement regime would look like
4. How do we decide who gets to come in a future migrant flow?

It was a diverse group, including the mayor, sheriffs from around the region, a state legislator, immigration lawyers, and members of advocacy groups. In general, I was heartened by Secretary Morton's clear interest in reform, as he was active in the failed effort to pass legislation in 2006-2007. The idea is to learn how to get it done right, which obviously is a daunting task. But these types of events demonstrate the commitment to learning more. (Of course, this does not tell us what will be feasible politically!).

As an academic, it is also nice to have the chance to summarize your own research conclusions (for me, it was political demography, which is the central theme of my book) to a high-level policy maker.

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Quote of the day: Cuba

"We Cubans are crazy for waiting. If there's no line in Cuba it's because the place is closed."

--Cuban university student waiting to use the Cuban intranet.

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Elections in Honduras

The Obama administration is being criticized for saying that it will not recognize the Honduran presidential election if there is no political settlement first (see, for example, Elliott Abrams as representative). The basic argument is that elections offer a way out of the crisis, and life can go back to normal. I have a few thoughts on this.

First, if the administration wants a negotiated settlement, then it has to make sure that multilateral leverage succeeds in convincing the coup government to agree. The worst case scenario is for the administration to talk tough, then ultimately just flounder until the election.

Second, it is true that many legitimate elections have been held under authoritarian conditions. However, in those cases (such as Chile) the primary political actors had all agreed on their legitimacy. So Honduras is not a good comparison in that regard.

Third, simply accepting the elections would be the equivalent of accepting the coup. The essential questions surrounding Zelaya's ouster--illegal actions by the military in particular--would go unexamined. The signal would be that coups are fine as long as you eventually hold elections. In other words, the "poder moderador" model would hold.

Days since the coup: 73
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 81

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Hispanic Heritage Month

Hispanic Heritage Month is September 15-October 15. Reuters put together a very nice compilation of facts based on Census data. I highly recommend taking a look.

I've been doing a lot of work on Latino immigration to the U.S. South, so the following are factoids that particularly interest me and may well be a surprise to some people:

16
The number of states with at least a half-million Hispanic residents --
Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts,
Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Texas,
Virginia and Washington.
Source: Population estimates
http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/population/013734.html

The Carolinas
The states with the highest percentage increases in Hispanic population
between July 1, 2007, and July 1, 2008. South Carolina's increase was 7.7
percent and North Carolina's was 7.4 percent.
Source: Population estimates
http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/population/013734.html

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Uribe's third term

I've written many posts on the efforts to give Alvaro Uribe a third term. Although there has been a lot in the news recently, I didn't have much to add (for recent stuff see Steven Taylor). Andres Oppenheimer, however, adds a new angle. If Uribe gets it, then he will find it even more difficult to work with the U.S. Congress.

Another well-placed congressional source told me that a third Uribe term ``is going to make our ability to make progress on the U.S.-Colombia free-trade agreement -- and broader funding on [the U.S. anti-narcotics aid] Plan Colombia -- difficult. Many Democrats see Uribe as a human-rights violator who is turning into something like a little king.''

I'm not sure whether a third term would really put the kibosh on a free trade agreement, but there is no doubt that the FTA faces an uphill battle and so every vote counts. Uribe's quest for power will overshadow (and possibly damage) his policy goals.

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Samuel Logan's This Is For The Mara Salvatrucha

I read This Is For The Mara Salvatrucha by Samuel Logan, who blogs at Security in Latin America. I was quickly sucked into the story of Brenda Paz, a teenager originally from Honduras who became involved with the MS-13. The book begins in Texas, but for the most part the events are in northern Virginia. Being present at a murder launches a sequence of events that eventually leads Brenda to make an effort to cooperate with police and leave the gang. The narrative moves quickly and smoothly, and especially since I did not know the outcome, I kept wanting to find out what happened to her. It is not a fun book, but is a very illuminating one.

One of the themes I found most interesting was that so many members, even very high up in the organization, were willing to work with the police after being arrested. Ironically, one member who was cooperating with police ordered the murder of another for the crime of cooperating with the police.

A troubling part of the conclusion, however, is that the gang learns from past experiences. The narrative takes place 4-6 years ago or so, and things have changed since. As Logan notes, the criminal enterprise has expanded, the gang is less reliant on tattoos (which makes them easier to spot) and they are becoming more business savvy.

Further, for so many people the gang is their only means of feeling human connection. It was extremely hard for Brenda to stay away from her friends, even though she knew it was very dangerous. She did not like being alone and had no one else to relate to. Getting people to commit to an entirely new life is a daunting task.

On a separate note, another critical issue is the fact that police cooperation with local Latino communities is essential for obtaining information. Programs like 287(g) make an already tricky situation that much harder. People with valuable knowledge are not likely to talk if they fear deportation.

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Zelaya's peregrinations

You have to admire Mel Zelaya's persistence. Since his overthrow, he has been traveling almost constantly, and that has kept his profile up. His visits often do not achieve many concrete results, but it is notable that no government in the world supports the coup. Not even the IMF does. By the logic of coup supporters, I suppose that means the IMF must be a leftist dupe.

Zelaya was just in Guatemala for the second time, where Alvaro Colom reiterated that his government would not recognize the elections. From there he was returning to Nicaragua, presumably to the border, and he said something vaguely about events this weekend.

It is also forcing itself into the presidential campaign. Rafael Leiva Vivas, Director of the Academia Diplomática de la Cancillería, says that he is preparing a document for all the presidential candidates outlining how Honduras must change its foreign policy. Without giving details, he said that Honduras must address the fact that all of its traditional allies are now opposing the Micheletti government, thus creating a foreign policy of "dignity." Unfortunately, he does not recognize that the most obvious response would be to rethink the behavior that caused these problems in the first place.

Days since the coup: 70
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 84

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Uribe and Chávez

In the midst of all the anti-Chávez marches (including here in Charlotte) it is interesting to note the results of recent Gallup polls from Colombia, Ecuador, and Venezuela.

"Uribe is more popular than Chavez ... Chavez can count on the sympathy of 29% of the Ecuadorians, but Uribe has 37% and President [Rafael] Correa obtained 51% in the last week," Cedatos-Gallup director Polivio Cordova told television network Teleamazonas.

Uribe is even popular in Venezuela.

In Colombia, Uribe is approved of by 69% of the interviewed, Correa only by 13% and Chavez by 14%.

In Venezuela, Chavez is only barely more popular than his Colombian counterpart. 48% of the Venezuelans said to approve of their leader, while 46% were positive about Uribe. Correa can count on the sympathy of 3% of the Venezuelans.

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Where I agree with the coup government

After the State Department announced more sanctions, one response from coup supporters is that the country needs to depend less on the United States, and strengthen ties to Europe and Asia. I couldn't agree more, and it is unfortunate that it took this much conflict to hammer the point home. It certainly would be difficult, since the economic relationship is also deeply tied to immigration. For example, in the past Mel Zelaya himself has traveled to Washington to lobby the Bush administration about immigration crackdowns.

Regardless, diversification would be a good strategy for the country. The ultimate goal is to get to a point where you don't have everyone looking to the U.S. to resolve political crises.

Days since the coup: 68
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 86

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(Not so?) Done deal

The State Department (seems not to have?) finally cut all non-humanitarian aid to Honduras.

"The Secretary of State has made the decision, consistent with US legislation, recognising the need for strong measures in light of the continued resistance to the adoption of the San Jose Accord by the de facto regime and continuing failure to restore democratic, constitutional rule to Honduras," a state department spokesman said.

So the current question becomes whether the coup government can actually limp along until the elections. This has to hurt quite a bit. How those elections are perceived, both domestically and internationally, is a future question.

UPDATE: Or not? The BBC reported all non-humanitarian aid, while other news outlets like the NYT say it is only $22 million of aid that was previously already suspended.

Meanwhile, the AP says it doesn't know how much aid was terminated.

What a mess. The State Department wants to look firm but cannot even get its story out in a coordinated manner.

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Zelaya's promise to return (again)

After meetings in Washington, Mel Zelaya said that he was planning to return to Honduras if negotiations did not work out: "I am going to return to the country, to be with the people. I am organizing myself for this moment, which will come sooner rather than later." He also referred vaguely to using "fighting strategies" to do so.

The State Department indicated this was unhelpful. I disagree. I think it is irrelevant. I think most people will ignore Zelaya because he has said something like that over and over, without doing anything. It's been a month since he did the cross-border two step.

Perhaps at some point Zelaya's patience will actually run out, and he will risk bodily harm to return. But saying so repeatedly without acting makes it seem less likely.

Days since the coup: 67
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 87

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The displaced in Colombia

It is nice to see Time magazine examining the issue of the displaced in Colombia, which gets far too little attention in the mainstream media. The title of the article is perfect: "If Colombia is Winning Its War, Why the Fleeing?"

Last year, 380,000 Colombians were forced off their land amid fighting between rebels, paramilitaries and the army, a 24% increase from 2007's figure, according to the Bogotá-based human-rights group Codhes (the Spanish acronym for the Human Rights and Displacement Office). Colombian officials, in turn, put the number of displaced at 294,000 for just the first six months of last year. "It's the million-dollar question," Marie-Helene Verney, spokeswoman for the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees in Colombia, says of the perplexing trend. "Something is going on."

The article did not mention another factor, namely the tens of thousands of Colombians fleeing into Ecuador. Overall, it is a humanitarian disaster.

Perhaps the Colombian government can use the same rationale as the U.S. does with regard to the drug war, where it claims that both increases and decreases of coca cultivation are signals of success. More displaced people means you're winning even more!

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Zelaya and the State Department

Mel Zelaya is in DC to talk both with the OAS and the State Department:

The State Department official said the delegation is waiting to find out whether the interim government will change its hardline stance against a Costa Rica-brokered plan that would allow Mr. Zelaya to return to Honduras and complete his term.

Um, what? The coup government announced yesterday that Zelaya could not return as president, would get no amnesty, and there would no third choice as president. But it is making enough of an appearance of negotiation to keep draaaaaaaagging it out.

Days since the coup: 65
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 89

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